Metals
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Weird recessions: can commodities de-couple?
In a ‘weird recession’, GDP growth turns negative, yet commodity prices continue surprising to the upside. This 10-page note explores three reasons that 2022-24 may bring a ‘weird recession’. There is historical precedent, prices must remain high to attract new investment and buyers may stockpile bottlenecked materials. How will this affect different industries?
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How do commodities perform during recessions?
How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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Silver and gold: medal winners?
Gold and silver are stores of value, especially in a world of persistently high inflation and low rates. Silver is also likely to be the main bottleneck for solar in the 2020s. Hence our 18-page note models the end-to-end mining and refining of these metals. We find very steep energy/CO2 curves, and fear supply shortages.…
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Overview of mining equipment companies?
This data-file is an overview of mining equipment companies. For each company, we have noted its location, size, age, number of employees, number of patents, latest revenues, operating margins, exposure to the mining equipment industry, and a few short summary sentences. Where possible, we have also broken down the company’s revenues by end-market or by…
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Silver and gold: the economics?
This data-file captures the marginal cost of silver and gold production, at an integrated mining-refining operation. In our base case, a 10% IRR requires a silver price of $17/Oz and a gold price of $1,750/Oz, while the energy and CO2 intensities are an eye watering 100-150 tons/ton and 9,000 tons/ton, respectively. Numbers vary widely on…
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Heap leaching: energy economics?
This data-file captures the energy economics of leaching in the mining industry, especially the costs of heap leaching, for the extraction of copper, nickel, gold, silver, other precious metals, uranium, and Rare Earths. The data-file allows you to stress test costs in $/ton of ore, $/ton of metal, capex, opex, chemicals costs, energy intensity and…
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Electrowinning: costs and energy economics?
Electrowinning costs and energy economics are built up in this data-file. A charge of $900/ton is required to earn a 10% IRR on a $3,000/kTpa plant with a median energy consumption of 2-3 MWH/ton. Although this will vary metal by metal.
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Froth flotation: the economics?
The costs of froth flotation are aggregated in this data-file, building up the typical capex costs (in $/Tpa), energy costs (in kWh/ton) and other opex lines (in $/ton) of one of the most important processes for the modern metals and materials industry. A good rule of thumb is $10/ton costs to concentrate a material by…
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Bio-coke: energy economics?
Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 – 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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Mining: crushing, grinding and comminution costs?
Mining crushing-grinding costs are typically $10/ton of ore, breaking 3-10cm rubble into 30-100 micron powders. Capex averages $20/Tpa and energy cost averages 20kWh/ton.
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