Metals in the energy transition

July 14, 2022

Solar contacts: silver bullet?

The front contacts in today’s solar cells are made of screen-printed silver, absorbing 11% of 2021’s silver market. Silver can be substituted with copper, but manufacturing is c5x more costly. So we expect a silver spike, then a switch. This 16-page note explains our outlook, and who benefits?

Silver demand: upside and substitution?

This data-file is a simple demand outlook for silver in the energy transition. Demand could rise 2.5x from 30kTpa to 85kTpa in 2050, driven by solar and electrification. Although in practice, we think a price spike will displace silver with copper.

July 11, 2022

Aurubis: copper recycling breakthrough?

Aurubis produces copper products from 1MTpa of recycled materials and 2.25MTpa of concetrates. Energy use and CO2 emissions are two-thirds lower than primary copper production. Our technology review finds a partial moat.

Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

1GTpa of material is recycled globally, across steel, paper, glass, plastics and other metals. On average, 35% of these materials are produced from recycled feeds, saving 70% of the energy and CO2, with upside in the Energy Transition.

Silver producers: leading companies?

Half of the world’s 28kTpa global silver market is controlled by 17 public companies, with silver output ranging from 0.1 – 2.0 kTpa, and co-producing gold, copper or other metals. This data-file is a screen of silver producers, in order to identify leading companies.

Electrical conductivity: energy transition materials?

Electrical conductivity of energy transition materials is tabulated in this data-file. ‘The action’ takes place in the range of 10^-8 to 10^-3 Ohm-meters, including silver in solar cells, copper in renewables and EVs, aluminium transmission lines, batteries, and solar semiconductors.

April 21, 2022

Direct lithium extraction: ten grains of salt?

Direct Lithium Extraction from brines could help lithium scale 30x in the Energy Transition; with costs and CO2 intensities 30-70% below mined lithium; while avoiding the 1-2 year time-lags of evaporative salars. This 15-page note reviews the top ten challenges that decision-makers need to de-risk.

Ionic radius: comparing cation chemistry?

Ionic radius measures the width of ions, in pico-meters (one billionth of a millimeter, one trillionth of a meter), or in angstroms (100 pico-meters). This short note contains our top conclusions on ionic radius, as we find ourselves doing more inorganic chemistry around metals in the energy transition.

Lithium from brines: the economics?

This data-file approximates the costs of battery-grade lithium from brines, via traditional salars the emerging technology of direct lithium extraction. Costs are c40-60% lower than mined lithium in ($/ton of lithium carbonate equivalent). CO2 intensity is 50-80% lower (in kg/kg).

March 24, 2022

Nickel solutions: unblocking a battery bottleneck?

The global nickel market will grow from $30bn pa to $300bn in the energy transition, including a 5x increase in volumes and 2x increase in price. This 15-page note evaluates the nickel supply chain for electric vehicle battery cathodes. Deficits are looming. Hence we end by screening nickel names.

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