Metals in the energy transition

Energy costs of mining processes?

Generally, we think a 33% ore grade will likely require 100kWh of mining energy per ton of finished commodity, mostly consumed in the form of electricity, and emitting 50kg of CO2. Each $100/ton increase in global CO2 abatement costs will therefore increase the cost of mined commodities by c3%.

June 3, 2021

Battery recycling: long division?

Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.

Battery recycling: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of recycling spent lithium ion batteries, taking in waste cells, and recovering materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese, copper, aluminium, lithium and steel. It currently looks challenging to generate acceptable IRRs without charging a disposal fee in the range of $1,700-2,000/ton. This could change through more automated processes.

Electric arc furnaces for lower-carbon steel production?

Electric arc furnaces generate enormous amounts of heat to recycle scrap steel, with 85% lower CO2 emissions than primary steel production. Our base case model yields a 15% IRR at $475/ton steel prices and a 10c/kWh power price. However, IRRs could be uplifted 2-6pp by integrating with renewables.

Nickel, manganese, cobalt: sufficient reserves for the rise of EVs?

This data-file models whether there will be enough nickel, manganese and cobalt, to build the batteries behind the vast rise of electric vehicles embedded in our oil demand forecasts. Strong reserve replacement makes nickel and manganese unconcerning. But cobalt may be a challenge.

Energy Transition Technologies?

This data-file “scores” the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world, as assessed by Thunder Said Energy. Each one is scored based on technical readiness, economic impact and the level of work we have conducted.

Additive manufacturing: costs of 3D-printed products?

The costs of 3D printed products are estimated between $10-100/kg in this data-file, in order to earn a 10% IRR on constructing and running an additive manufacturing machine, net of labor costs, energy costs, maintenance and materials. Economic costs, energy intensity and CO2 intensity vary as a function of the material and can be stress-tested…

Leading Companies in Battery Recycling?

This data-file tracks over 6,000 patents filed into battery recycling technology, escalating at a 15% CAGR since 2000. 18 technology leaders are profiled ex-China, including 6 global, large-cap listed companies and 10 private companies, including some exciting, early-stage concepts to improve material recovery and costs.

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