Vehicles
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Electricity demand for electric vehicles?
Global electricity demand for electric vehicles will rise from 120TWH in 2025 to 350 TWH in 2030 and 1,600 TWH in 2050, adds c5% upside to recent global electricity demand. This data-file quantifies electricity demand for EVs by region and over time, including data into the real-world fuel economy of EVs.
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Electric vehicles: total cost of ownership?
Electric vehicles’ total cost of ownership remains 30% higher than ICE vehicles, at $7,700 per year, versus $6,000 per year, all based on 2024 data, for 50 vehicles. Electric vehicle up-front prices are 55% higher, insurance costs are 30% higher, while energy costs are 60% lower. 20 different pricing metrics are compared and contrasted in…
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Electric vehicle: battery life?
Electric vehicle battery life will realistically need to reach 1,500 cycles for the average passenger vehicle, 2,000-3,000 cycles after reflecting a margin of safety for real-world statistical distributions, and 3,000-6,000 cycles for higher-use commercial vehicles. This means lithium ion batteries may be harder to displace with novel chemistries?
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Electric vehicles: breaking the ICE?
Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT…
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Vehicle fleets: service life and retirement age by vehicle type?
The weighted-average combustion vehicle in the world has a current age of 12-years and an expected service life of 20-years. In other words, a new combustion vehicle entering the global fleet in 2023 will most likely be running through 2043. Useful data and notes are compiled overleaf.
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Electric vehicles: motors and magnets?
This data-file assesses electric vehicle magnets, permanent magnets and the use of Rare Earth materials such as neodymium (NdFeB). 80-90% of recent EVs have used Rare Earth permanent magnets, averaging 1.5 kg per vehicle, or 7.5g/kW of drive-train power, across the data-file. But the numbers vary vastly. From 0-4 kg per vehicle. 20 vehicles from…
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Bulk shipping: cost breakdown?
Bulk carriers move 5GTpa of commodities around the world, explaining half of all seaborne global trade. This model is a breakdown of bulk shipping cost. We estimate a cost of $2.5 per ton per 1,000-miles, and a CO2 intensity of 5kg per ton per 1,000-miles. Marine scrubbers increasingly earn their keep and uplift IRRs from…
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Commercial aviation: fuel economy of planes?
This data-file calculates the fuel economy of planes from first principles, using physics to calculate lift and drag, and comparing with actual data from aircraft manufacturers. The typical fuel economy of a plane is 80 passenger-mpg to carry 400 passengers, 8,000km at 900kmph, using jet fuel with 12,000 Wh/kg energy density. What sensitivities and decarbonization…
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?
This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical…
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Hillcrest: ZVS inverter breakthrough?
Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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