2026 will be a year of recalibration. Long-standing theses/trends will break down: including for oil, LNG, geopolitics, EVs, solar, power markets and decarbonization. Energy markets swing from 1% oversupply in 2025, to undersupply in 2027. So which materials and strategies will fare best?
This 11-page report covers our top ten themes for energy in 2026. Specifically, we spent the winter break reflecting on what might be the most important, and counter-consensus surprises, across energy, materials and capital goods.
Each page of this report distils down just one theme, why it matters, and the recent facts, statistics and questions that could re-shape global markets in 2026.
Overall we expect a year of recalibration, as global energy supply-demand moves from 1% oversupply in 2025 to undersupply in 2027 (Theme #1), especially for oil markets (Theme #2).
Global energy markets are technically still oversupplied in 2026. But it is always interesting how oversupply clears. This tends to bring price volatility — i.e., down and back up again.
In oil markets, we think 2026 could re-ignite expectations for global oil demand to grow by +1Mbpd/year through 2030, which is so important that it warrants its own 15-page report.
For global LNG markets, it is more perception based. The perception of looming oversupply will clear. And Global LNG balances could be much tighter than the current consensus (Theme #3).
Other long-standing trends are breaking down: there could be unusual weakness in the deployment of solar and EVs, and a surge of new initiatives promoting power grid efficiency and flexibility (Themes #4-7).
While there is less focus on decarbonization, especially high cost decarbonization, we see reminiscent distortions forming in other supply chains (Theme #8).
The report ends by exploring which materials (Theme #9) and companies/strategies (Theme #10) might be best placed, given our Ten Themes for Energy in 2026.
We look forward to discussing our ‘Ten Themes for Energy’ with TSE clients. Please do email us if you would like to dive in deeper on any of these themes.