Global oil demand was once meant to peak out in 2024-30. But 2025 saw almost 1Mbpd of growth, to 104Mbpd. 2026 should see over 1Mbpd of growth, amplified by a YoY pullback in EV sales. Hence this 15-page report revisits peak global oil demand and sees global refinery utilization tightening by 3-5%.
Global oil demand rose by 1.2Mbpd/year, on average, from 1990 to 100Mbpd in 2019. Then 2020 kick-started an obsession over ‘peak global oil demand’. Prior IEA forecasts, and our forecasts, are critiqued on page 2.
Yet what if global oil demand rises by another 1Mbpd in 2026, at the same time as global EV sales pull back YoY? Could market forecasters revert to their old consensus expectation for 1Mbpd/year of growth?
Slower growth in EV sales is discussed on pages 3-6, linked to market saturation and the phase-back of fiscal incentives. Thus we have updated our forecasts for global EV sales.
Rising vehicle miles traveled per ICE is another theme that has recently surprised us. We are now tracking vehicle miles traveled more closely. And see upside linked to autonomous vehicles, per pages 7-9.
Global oil demand is also impacted by interesting trends in fuel economy and elasticity to low oil prices, as discussed on pages 10 and 11.
Hence overall, we are making the largest revisions to our long-term global oil demand forecasts in 5-years, discussed on page 12. Demand is seen rising by 1Mbpd in 2026, reaching 107Mbpd in 2030 and only eases back to 100Mbpd by 2050 (and even this requires a future EV re-acceleration).
Global refinery utilization would tighten materially if our forecasts above are correct, including due to a dwindling refinery project pipeline, and demanding economics for greenfield refineries. Implications are on pages 13-15.