Energy demand: making predictions about the future?
…the run-up of oil prices in 2007-08, in 2012-14 and in 2021-22. By contrast, in periods where economic activity was strong and oil prices were low/falling, such as 2010, or…
Shale oil: fractured forecasts?
…hit steep undersupply. Our shale outlook still sees +1Mbpd/year of liquids potential through 2030, but it is back loaded, and requires persistently higher oil prices? $599.00 – Purchase Checkout Added to cart…
Our Top Ten Research Notes of 2020
…by rock oil and later by electric lighting. Whale oil prices outperformed over this timeframe, as supply peaked before demand. Our latest our oil market outlook is here, and our…
How do commodities perform during recessions?
…prices from the World Bank pink sheets. We then translated these nominal prices into real terms using the US CPI. Next, we downloaded a list of recession dates from the…
Oil markets: waiting game?
Oil prices must entrench well above $50/bbl for 2023-25 oil markets to balance. But prices could materially overshoot. This short 4-page note presents our latest conclusions, and top charts on…
US Vehicle Fleet: fuel economy, masses and vehicle types?
…new US vehicles sold has increased from 15mpg in 1976 to 27mpg in 2022 with sedans at 33mpg How do vehicle purchasing decisions vary with oil prices? Real oil prices…
Global oil demand: rumors of my death?
…note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand ‘upside’, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices….
Can technology revive offshore oil?
…So can technology revive offshore and deep-water? This note outlines our ‘top twenty’ opportunities. They can double deep-water NPVs, add c4-5% to IRRs and improve oil price break-evens by $15-20/bbl….
Oil markets: the aftermath?
…loss of 4.5Mbpd of shale growth and c3Mbpd of greenfield growth. This 4-page note argues it is not impossible for oil prices to surpass $100/bbl in the aftermath of COVID….
Can Technology Revive Offshore Oil?
…can technology revive offshore and deep-water? This note outlines our ‘top twenty’ opportunities. They can double deep-water NPVs, add c4-5% to IRRs and improve oil price break-evens by $15-20/bbl. $599.00 – Purchase…