Energy market volatility: climate change?

Wind and solar produce power intermittently. As they ramp to provide higher shares of total grid power, they will also increase the magnitude low likelihood volatility events. This will increase the overall volatility of global energy markets.

This 14-page note predicts a staggering increase in global energy market volatility, which doubles by 2050, while extreme events that sway energy balances by +/- 2% will become 250x more…

Oil markets: rising volatility?

There have been a total of 80 oil market volatility events from 2003 to 2023, with an average magnitude of +/- 320kbpd. The largest drops in oil production were due to sanctions or unrest.

Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the…

Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?

Interconnectors cure renewables volatility

…economically smooth them. Solar heavy grids may thus become prone to unbearable volatility. Our 17-page note outlines this important challenge, and finds that the best solutions are to construct high-voltage…

Global oil production by country?

Global oil production by country over time in Mbpd, correlates heavily with Brent crude oil prices in $/bbl

…Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, the US, Canada and Russia very clearly adapt their growth/output to market pricing signals, which actually dampens down supply volatility. Countries with the highest volatility in their…

Midstream opportunities in the energy transition?

…in the global energy industry, due to the inherent volatility of solar and wind. Rising volatility increases the value of midstream infrastructure, which by definition, can arbitrage the volatility by…

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