Search results for: “energy density”
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Gas fractionation: NGL economics?
Gas fractionation separates out methane from NGLs such as ethane, propane and butane. A full separation uses up almost 1% of the input gas energy and 4% of the NGL energy. The costs of gas fractionation require a gas processing spread of $0.7/mcf for a 10% IRR off $2/mcf input gas, or in turn, an…
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Global tin demand: upside in energy transition?
Global tin demand stands at 400kTpa in 2023 and rises by 2.5x to 1MTpa in 2050 as part of the energy transition. 50% of today’s tin market is for solder, which sees growing application in the rise of the internet, rise of EVs and rise of solar. Global tin supply and demand can be stress-tested…
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MOSFETs: energy use and power loss calculator?
MOSFETs are fast-acting digital switches, used to transform electricity, across new energies and digital devices. MOSFET power losses are built up from first principles in this data-file, averaging 2% per MOSFET, with a range of 1-10% depending on voltage, switching, on resistance, operating temperature and reverse recovery charge.
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Decarbonizing global energy: the route to net zero?
What is the most likely route to net zero by 2050, decarbonizing a planet of 9.5bn people, 50% higher energy demand, and abating 80GTpa of potential CO2? Net zero is achievable. But only with pragmatism. This 20-page report summarizes the best opportunities, resultant energy mix, bottlenecks for 30 commodities, and changes to our views in…
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Energy intensity of AI: chomping at the bit?
Rising energy demands of AI are now the biggest uncertainty in all of global energy. To understand why, this 17-page note is an overview of AI computing from first principles, across transistors, DRAM, GPUs and deep learning. GPU efficiency will inevitably increase, but compute increases faster. AI most likely uses 300-2,500 TWH in 2030, with…
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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Energy security: right to self-determine?
The average major economy produces 70% of its own energy and imports the other 30%. This 12-page note explores energy self-sufficiency by country. We draw three key conclusions: into US isolationism; Europe’s survival; and the pace of EV adoption, both in China and in LNG-importing nations.
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Kardashev scale: a futuristic future of energy?
A Kardashev scale civilization uses all the energy it has available. Hence this 16-page report explores ten futuristic uses for global energy, which could absorb an additional 50,000 TWH pa by 2050 (60% upside), mainly from solar. And does this leap in human progress also allay climate concerns better than pre-existing roadmaps to net zero?
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Wind energy: beyond good and evil?
Wind economics are not good or bad in absolute terms. They depend on capacity factors, which average 26% globally, but can range from 10% to 60%. In the best locations, levelized costs are below 4c/kWh. Hence this 16-page note explores global wind capacity factors and updates our wind outlook by region throgh 2050.
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Radioactivity of materials: energy, Rare Earths and nuclear?
This data-file captures the radioactivity of materials: ranging from 10Bq/kg in sea-water, to 100Bq/kg in humans, to 300Bq/kg in Brazil nuts (the most radioactivity food), to 1,000Bq/kg in coal ash, 2,000Bq/kg in copper tailings, 0.5-1MBq/kg in Rare Earth concentrates and tailings, to 4M Bq/kg in uranium ore, 0.2 bn Bq/kg in nuclear fuel and 10-100…
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