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Search results for: “climate model”

  • Hydroprocessing: the economics?

    Hydroprocessing: the economics?

    This model requires a $7.5/bbl upgrade spread to earn a 10% IRR across a new hydrocracking or hydrotreating unit. CO2 emissions are around 25kg/bbl. Green hydrogen could be used for decarbonization, but it would require 3x higher upgrading spreads to remain economical.

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  • Energy economics: an overview?

    Energy economics: an overview?

    This data-file provides an overview of energy economics, across 175 different economic models constructed by Thunder Said Energy, in order to put numbers in context. This helps to compare marginal costs, capex costs, energy intensity, interest rate sensitivity, and other key parameters that matter in the energy transition.

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  • Copper: global demand forecasts?

    Copper: global demand forecasts?

    This data-file estimates global copper demand as part of the energy transition, rising from 28MTpa in 2022 to 70MTpa in our base case scenario. The largest contributor is the electrification of transport. You can stress test half-a-dozen key input variables in the model.

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  • Polymers and higher olefins: the economics?

    Polymers and higher olefins: the economics?

    Our base case for producing high density polyethylene (HDPE) from ethylene requires pricing of $1,250/ton for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant. CO2 intensity is 0.3 kg/kg. However temperatures and pressures can vary vastly for different polymers, moving energy economics accordingly.

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  • Windy physics: how is power of a wind turbine calculated?

    Windy physics: how is power of a wind turbine calculated?

    This data-file is an overview of wind power physics. Specifically, how is the power of a wind turbine calculated, in MW, as a function of wind speed, blade length, blade number, rotational speed (in RPM) and other efficiency factors (lambda). A large, modern offshore wind turbine will have 100m blades and surpass 10MW power outputs.

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  • CO2 liquefaction: the economics?

    CO2 liquefaction: the economics?

    This data-file captures the costs of liquefying CO2 for transportation in a ship, rail car or truck, to promote smaller-scale CCS. Our baseline is a cost of $15/ton, using c100kWh of energy per ton of CO2, which is approximately equivalent to a c3% energy penalty. There is scope for optimization.

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  • Steel production: costs and energy economics?

    Steel production: costs and energy economics?

    This data-file captures steel production from the reduction of iron ore in a blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace. Our base case is a marginal cost of $550/ton and 2.4 tons/ton of CO2. Decarbonization options such as hydrogen can be stress-tested.

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  • Auto manufacturing: the economics?

    Auto manufacturing: the economics?

    This is a simple model, to break down the $30k sales price of a typical mass-market automobile. c25% accrues to suppliers, c20% is sales taxes, c20% is dealer costs/logistics, c10% employees, c10% material inputs, c10% O&M, 1% electricity and c5% auto-maker margins. Prices may inflate 60% amidst industrial shortages.

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  • Marcellus shale: well by well production database?

    Marcellus shale: well by well production database?

    This large data-file tracks activity, well-by-well, across c11,000 wells in the Pennsylvania Marcellus, month-by-month, from 2015-2021. First tier operators stand out, especially as the basin has consolidated. They achieve higher IP rates and have been able to do more with less.

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  • Graphite production: the economics?

    Graphite production: the economics?

    This data-file captures simplified costs for producing battery-grade graphite (i.e., 99.9% pure, coated, spheronized graphite) in an integrated facility, from mine to packaged output. Our marginal cost is estimated at around $10,000/ton for a 10% IRR. CO2 intensity varies but averages 10kg/kg.

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