Search results for: “climate model”
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?
Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency.…
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China Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions, 2000-2060
This data-file is our China Energy Model and China CO2 Model, disaggregating China’s energy demand by industry, across coal, oil, gas, wind, solar, hydro and nuclear, across c200 lines, from 2000-2060, with 20-input variables that can be stress-tested. There are routes to reach Net Zero in China by 2060, but it requires some heroic assumptions.
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Thermal energy storage: cost model?
This data-file captures the costs of thermal energy storage, buying renewable electricity, heating up a storage media, then releasing the heat for industrial, commercial or residential use. Our base case requires 13.5 c/kWh-th for a 10% IRR, however 5-10 c/kWh-th heat could be achieved with lower capex costs.
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Hydro power: generation by facility, availability over time?
Hydro power generation by facility is tabulated in this data-file for the 20 largest hydro-electric plants in the US. The average facility achieves 43% availability, varying from 39% in hot-dry years to 51% in wet years; and from 33% at the seasonal trough in September-October to 53% at the seasonal peak in May-June. What implications…
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Air conditioning: energy consumption?
The average US home uses 2,000 kWh of electricity for air conditioners each year. Air conditioning energy consumption is broken down from first principles in this data-file, as a function of temperatures, humidity, heating days, household size, insulation and coefficient of performance (COP). What routes to lower the air conditioning energy demand and CO2 emissions?
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Power generation: sensitivity to high-temperature heatwaves?
This data-file aims to provide a simple model for how generally well-covered grids can fail catastrophically during a heatwave. We have drawn on technical papers to quantify the deterioration of solar, gas, transmission and distribution losses, wind and other generation sources at higher temperatures.
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Johan Sverdrup: Economic Model
We have modelled the economics of Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different decline rates and recovery factors on the field’s ultimate value.
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Mero: Economic Model
We have modeled the economics of the Mero oilfield (formerly known as Libra), using public disclosures and our own estimates. Our model spans >250 lines of inputs and outputs, so you can flex key assumptions. In particular, we have tested the impact of different gas bottleneck scenarios on the field’s NPV.
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Global LNG supply model: by project and by country?
Global LNG output ran at 406MTpa in 2024. This model estimates global LNG production by facility across 150 LNG facilities. Our latest forecasts are that global LNG demand will rise at a 6% CAGR, to reach 710MTpa by 2035, for an absolute growth rate of +30MTpa per year, but there is a supply-crunch in 2024-26,…
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Guyana: Economic Model
We have modeled the economics for the full development of Exxon, Hess and CNOOC-Nexen’s Stabroek block in Guyana, FPSO by FPSO. The data-file includes the field’s ultimate value, resource volumes, production volumes, cash flows, capex and per-barrel economics. Sensitivities can also modeled as a function of oil prices, WACCs and resources.
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