US shale: our outlook in the energy transition?

This presentation covers our outlook for the US shale industry in the energy transition, and was presented at a recent investor conference. The presentation is free to download for TSE subscription clients.


The importance of shale oil supplies in a fully decarbonized energy system is contextualized on pages 1-7. Production must grow by a vast 2.6Mbpd in 2022-25 to keep oil markets well supplied, even as oil demand plateaus. Otherwise, devastating oil shortages may de-rail the transition.

This requires a 5% CAGR in shale productivity. We argue in favor of future productivity growth, based on the evidence from 950 technical papers, which we have reviewed, on pages 8-12.

But can the industry attract capital? This now hinges upon carbon credentials. Laggards will have >25kg/boe of upstream CO2 while leaders have the opportunity to be CO2-neutral. The division (and the  prize) is outlined on pages 13-19.