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Gas turbine manufacturing: eliminative materialism?
Can we model the supply and demand for gas turbines? This 21-page report presents our attempt. We ultimately see gas turbine manufacturing expansions outpacing demand growth. AI is also helping to expand. However, ‘accelerated orders’ may have distorted order books in 2025.
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Dynamic line ratings: can AI debottleneck the grid?
The carrying capacity of the power grid is not fixed, but varies with wind speeds and ambient temperatures. AI is now helping to enable Dynamic Line Ratings, unlocking 10-100%+ more capacity on some lines, effectively for free. This 18-page report explores the implications. Could DLRs avoid $100-300bn pa in future global grid capex, and thus…
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Are AI and robotics deflating coal costs?
This data-file tracks the progress in deploying AI in the coal industry, and deploying robots in the coal industry, based on the evidence from patents filed in 2025 and early 2026. AI is increasingly under study, but mainly for safety and monitoring applications, and often specifically to combat resource depletion, which is discussed in c30%…
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Grid-scale battery costs: the economics?
Grid-scale batteries are envisaged to store up excess renewable electricity and re-release it later. Grid-scale battery costs are modeled at 17c/kWh in our base case, which is the ‘storage spread’ that a LFP lithium ion battery must charge to earn a 10% IRR off c$1,000/kW installed capex costs. Other batteries can be compared in the…
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Earthworks: the economics?
The costs of earthworks might range from $1/m2 to $300/m2 at a construction project, depending on the depth that needs to be excavated and the amount of aggregate that needs to be back-filled. This data-file estimates the costs of earthworks, across power and energy projects, which is usually around $10-15/kW.
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Circular economy: is AI a game changer?
10 companies have recently launched AI-enabled robotics to recover value from the world’s 2.3GTpa of solid waste. Picking rates are 4x faster than humans. c1-year paybacks are quoted. Hence today’s 17-page report explores the implications for gas, power, metals, materials and oil markets, amidst a step-change in the circular economy.
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Global copper supply-demand
Global copper supply-demand is tabulated in this data-file, looking across 90 mines and upcoming projects, by country, and over time. Markets were 5% undersupplied when prices spiked in 2010-11, 6% over-supplied when they collapsed in 2015-16, and returned to undersupply in 2025. Undersupply persists through 2035, most likely at -3% pa, as demand grows by…
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Dynamic line ratings: companies and case studies?
This data-file is a screen of 30 leading companies in dynamic line ratings (DLR), deploying sensors and/or software to optimize the carrying capacity of transmission and distribution lines in real time. The average case study spans 750km and uplifts T&D capacity by 34%. Deployment, is inflecting in the AI era.
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Hyperspectral imaging: companies and case studies?
Hyperspectral imaging captures 30-100x more data from a visual scene than cameras or the human eye, binned into narrower bands, across a wider spectral range. These data, available in real-time, and inherently dovetailing with AI models, are increasingly valuable in food, agriculture, mining, waste-management, oil and gas and manufacturing. This data-file screens leading hyperspectral imaging…
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Renewable diesel: the economics?
Renewable diesel economics are captured in this data-file, requiring a price of $4.5-5/gallon (about $200/bbl), for a green diesel plant costing $35M/kbpd to generate a 10% IRR while hydroprocessing $1,000/ton feedstocks. Please download the data-file to stress-test renewable diesel economics, biodiesel economics and input costs.
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