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US energy model: oil, gas, power and CO2?
The US consumes 25,000 TWH of primary energy per year, which equates to 13,000 TWH of useful energy, and emits 6GTpa of CO2. This model captures our best estimates for how the US energy system will involve, across oil, gas, coal, nuclear, wind, solar and efficiency gains, and thus the trajectory of CO2 emissions through…
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Potato chips: isn’t AI really deflationary?
This video reflects on our favorite AI case studies of 2026, and what they mean for energy, industrials and equity markets. 1-2 year payback periods mean mild supply chain pull, then deep, persistent deflation. Most case studies are sub-kW scale. And maybe the few GW-scale deployments are “one and done”. Implications follow…
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Duck curves: US power price duckiness over time?
In solar-heavy grids, power prices trough around mid-day, then ramp up rapidly as the sunset. This price distribution over time is known as the duck curve. US power prices are getting 25-30% more ducky each year, based on some forms of measurement. Power prices are clearly linked to the instantaneous share of wind/solar in grids.
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Enphase: GaN microinverter technology?
Enphase is a global leader in microinverters. In 2026, it released its first GaN-based microinverter, reducing weight by 25% and volume by 35%. Specific innovations come out in the patents and suggest more radical changes lie ahead, for even more power dense microinverters based on cycloconverter topologies. But does this confer any kind of edge…
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Gas turbine component manufacturers?
Leading gas turbine component manufacturers are tabulated in this company screen. 20 companies produce almost $5bn pa of precision-made vanes, blades, rings and ancillaries for gas turbines, at 17% EBIT margins, but a diversified manufacturing footprint that often overlaps with other aerospace applications. What implications?
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Grid connection costs: wind, solar, power, data centers?
Cost of grid connection is shaping up to be a major bottleneck for the continued acceleration of new energies. A good baseline is to expect $100-300/kW of grid inter-connection costs, or $3-10/kW-km, over a typical distance of 10-70 km. But the requirement to fund network upgrade costs can push grid connections to cost more than…
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Solar costs: a breakdown over time?
Solar costs have deflated by 70% in the past decade to $800/kW in 2025. 60% has been the scale-up to mass manufacturing, and 40% has been rising efficiency of solar modules. Doubling the efficiency, and thereby the output of solar modules, can halve costs again.
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Data centers in space: the final frontier model?
Data centers in space are a cool science fiction concept. This 17-page report explores how they would work. We think the costs will be 2x higher than Earth-based AI data centers. Amidst many logistical challenges, the biggest potential show-stopper is space debris, given the size of the structures, especially their solar arrays.
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Gas turbine breakdown by component?
A large industrial gas turbine contains over 100,000 components. This data-file breaks down a gas turbine by component, across 45 component types, explaining what each component does, estimating its typical mass (in kg), its typical cost (in $/kW and $/kg) and how it is manufactured.
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Piling works: anchoring construction costs?
Piling works involve driving long vertical shafts into the ground, which will anchor and support a structure. The costs of piling works can run to $20-200/m, as captured in this data-file, to generate a return and cover the costs of piling operations.
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