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AI at the edge: the lynx effect?
What is interesting about AI is shifting. Away from large centralized data centers and towards AI chips embedded in devices at the grid edge. And away from the general and towards highly specific applications and contexts. The AI cameras in our driveway recently picked up a Eurasian lynx this summer, which exemplifies both shifts, as…
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Coal mining: the economics?
The economics of coal mining are captured in this data-file. $60/ton coal, equivalent to 1c/kWh-th, at the bottom of the global energy cost curve, can typically be unlocked by capex costs of $60/Tpa at a new coal mine, and other opex costs, tabulated in the data-file.
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Passenger cars: what electrical loads in vehicles?
Electrical loads in vehicles typically average 1kW, in order to power HVAC, computers, engine cooling, steering, sensors and entertainment. This equates to 500TWH of electricity demand globally within ICEs, even before considering electrification. Fully autonomous vehicles would likely consume another 1-3kW again for on-board AI chips.
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Global iron ore production by company over time?
Iron ore is the sixth most produced commodity in the world, at 2.7GTpa. This data file breaks down global iron ore production by company over time. Since 2019, average realizations for the largest producers have risen at 1.6% pa, while costs have risen at 5% pa. What outlook from here?
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Canadian shale producers and E&P costs?
This data-file is a screen of Canadian upstream companies and Canadian shale producers, especially focused on the fast-growing Montney-Duvernay shale plays. Key themes are rising shale oil and gas production, low-capex wells, high well-level IRRs, performance improvements and consolidation via M&A.
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Industrial insulation: heat losses and temperatures?
This data-file is a calculator for steam pipe insulation, calculating heat losses and external temperatures of hot surfaces from first principles, as a function of the industrial insulation thickness. Higher energy prices incentivize additional insulation, although there can be diminishing returns.
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Heat potential: what if AI can load-shift hot water tanks?
Residential heat is 13% of global energy. So what if AI could optimize residential electric heating? This 16-page report finds that load-shifting hot water tanks can unlock 1.5-8.5% additional flexibility in grids and make air source heat pumps the lowest cost option for heat in Europe, eclipsing gas-combi boilers, saving $300 per household per year?
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Residential heating energy from first principles?
This data-file models residential heating energy from first principles, taking an example in Northern Europe, for a house with 150m2 floor space, requiring 15MWth of heat (space heating and hot water), which is met by consuming 5MWH-e pa in a heat pump, costing $1,500/year. But this can also be optimized.
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Global biofuel production: by region, by liquid fuel?
Global liquid biofuel production ran at 3.3Mbpd in 2025, of which c60% is ethanol, c30% is biodiesel and c10% is renewable diesel. 65% of global production is from the US and Brazil. Our forecasts for global liquid biofuel production reach 3.8Mbpd by 2030 and 5Mbpd by 2050, with 75% of the growth in renewable diesel.
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The AI energy transition: technologies collide?
Great industrial leaps often occur when technologies collide. Hence this 20-page report explores how AI, solar, batteries and robotics might all collide together. This is transformative for the world. It represents the next “energy transition”. Hence this also becomes our new roadmap for the evolution of the global energy system.
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