Will the next chapter of solarโs ascent come from perovskite-tandem cells, followed by perovskite-on-perovskites? This 18-page report finds more momentum in perovskite solar than we expected. There is potential for 30% cost deflation, new solar applications (in buildings/vehicles), and a disruption of PV silicon?
Solar is the largest source of energy supply growth in our models of global energy demand and global electricity demand, with potential to add 3TW pa of module capacity by 2050, and also unlock world-changing new uses of energy. Our numbers are re-capped on pages 2-3.
This outlook is based on continued solar cost deflation, in turn mostly driven by increasingly efficient modules. This is rooted in physics, and what we are seeing in the pace of solar technology development. Seemingly every year, a new cell design sweeps the market, such as TOPCons in 2022, HJT cells in 2023; and most recently, perovskite solar tandems, the topic of this report.
Perovskites comprise the class of materials with repeating chemical structure ABX3, where A is an organic or inorganic cation (e.g., methylammonium), B is a metal cation (usually lead 2+ or tin 2+) and X is a halide anion (iodide, bromide, fluoride). Such a material was first discovered in the Ural Mountains in 1839, and named for Russian mineralogist (and Count) Lev Perovski, who lived from 1792-1856. Remarkable properties of perovskites – and challenges of perovskites – are discussed on pages 4-6.
Perovskite solar is already setting efficiency records. For example LONGi hit, 34.6% on a tandem perovskite-silicon cell in 2024. But there is a route to 44% efficiency on perovskite-silicon tandems, shown from first principles on pages 7-8.
Perovskite solar tandems are thus clearly deflationary, and our cost estimates are discussed on page 9.
Perovskite solar cells can be extremely thin. 1ฮผm of perovskite may achieve comparable absorption and electricity generation as 100-150ฮผm of polysilicon. This opens up new applications such as Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV), as discussed on page 10.
Could perovskites disrupt the solar supply chain? We discuss the outlook for polysilicon, silica and today’s solar module manufacturers on pages 11-12.
Leading companies in perovskites are building momentum, with scaling up and overcoming degradation challenges faster than we had expected. We discuss 20 leading companies and their surprisingly rapid progress, on pages 13-18.