Search results for: “solar volatility”
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Solar volatility: second by second output data?
We have aggregated the volatility and power drops across an entire year of second-by-second solar data. Each day typically sees 100 volatility events where output drops by over 10%, and 10 events where output drops by over 70 events. Volatility also varies day by day.
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Power transmission: inter-connectors smooth solar volatility?
Can large-scale power transmission smooth renewables’ volatility? To answer this question, this horrible 18MB data-file aggregates 20-years of hour-by-hour solar insolation arriving at four cities in the US. The volatility in year-by-year can be halved by a single inter-connector.
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Solar volatility: tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies?
This 20-page note quantifies the statistical distribution of short-term volatility at solar power plants. Solar output typically flickers downwards by over 10%, around 100 times per day. Can industrial processes truly be โpowered by solarโ? What opportunities will arise to buffer the volatility?
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Wind volatility: second by second output data?
We have evaluated the second-by-second data on the power output of a 25MW onshore wind farm in Germany. A typical day sees 75 volatility events. Compared to solar, wind power drops slightly less frequently, but more extensively (often >90%) and for longer (often several hours or days). Both wind and solar show high short-term volatility.
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Solar volatility: interconnectors versus batteries?
The solar energy reaching a given point on Earthโs surface varies by +/- 6% each year. These annual fluctuations are 96% correlated over tens of miles. And no battery can economically smooth them. Solar heavy grids may thus become prone to unbearable volatility. Our 17-page note outlines this important challenge, and finds that the best…
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Solar generation: minute by minute volatility?
The volatility of solar generation is evaluated in this case study, by tracking the output from a 275MW solar project, at 5-minute intervals, throughout an entire calendar year. Output is -65% lower in winter than summer, varies +/-10% each day, and +/- 5% every 5-minutes, including steep power drops that in turn require back-ups.
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Solar insolation: by latitude, season, date, time and tilt?
Solar insolation varies from 600-2,500 kWh/m2/year at different locations on Earth, depending on their latitude, altitude, cloudiness, panel tilt and panel azimuth. This means the economics of solar can also vary by a factor of 4x. Seasonality is a key challenge at higher latitudes. Active strategies are emerging for orienting solar modules.
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Solar variability: how much does solar energy vary by year?
This data-file aggregates the average annual volatility of solar (and wind) resources across ten locations, mainly cities, in the United States. Annual volatility of incoming solar energy reaching ground level tends to vary by +/- 6% per year, is 96% correlated across different locations within that city, and 50-70% correlated with other cities in the…
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Wind generation case study: minute by minute volatility?
The volatility of wind generation is illustrated in this data-file, by aggregating the data for a large wind project in Australia, every five minutes, across an entire calendar year. Intra-day and inter-day volatility is 30-60% higher than for solar. 2-6 day feasts and famines are hard to backstop with batteries. Solar also cannibalizes wind?
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Power price volatility: where are the opportunities?
Does real-world power price volatility follow a regular daily pattern (suited to batteries), incur periodic and protracted price spikes (suited to gas back-ups), or fluctuate somewhat randomly in real time (suited to DSR, batteries and gas generation?). This 9-page report evaluates data from the UK grid in 2024, to disaggregate the prevalence of these three…
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