Search results for: “demand”
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US decarbonization: energy and CO2 emissions?
The US consumes 25,000 TWH of primary energy per year, which equates to 13,000 TWH of useful energy, and emits 6GTpa of CO2. This model captures our best estimates for what a pragmatic and economical decarbonization of the US will look like, reaching net zero in 2050, with forecasts for wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, oil,…
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Vehicles: energy transition conclusions?
Vehicles transport people and freight around the world, explaining 70% of global oil demand, 30% of global energy use, 20% of global CO2e emissions. This overview summarizes all of our research into vehicles, and key conclusions for the energy transition.
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Variable Power Tariffs Exacerbate Social Inequalities?
This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after a large-scale US sample. Demand is inelastic, falling just 1% for a 20% price-increase. However, socially “vulnerable” consumers suffered disproportionately, with bills rising 4% more than non-vulnerable consumers.
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Energy transition: top commodities?
This data-file summarizes our latest thesis on ten commodities with upside in the energy transition. The average one will see demand rise by 3x and price/cost appreciate or re-inflate by 100%. The data-file contains a 6-10 line summary of our work into each commodity.
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Residential energy consumption over time?
Global residential energy demand runs at 2.5 MWH pp pa, of which c40% is from electricity, 40% is gas, c13% is biomass and c7% is oil. In our gas and power models, electrification rises to 65% by 2050, to help renewables reach 50% of global electricity. Heat pumps improve efficiency and lower primary demand in the developed world.
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Average home sizes: living space per person?
Average home sizes matter for overall residential energy demand, heating and cooling demand. Hence the purpose of this data-file is to aggregate average home sizes by country, then translate the data into living space per capita. A good rule of thumb is that each $1k pp pa of GDP translates one-for-one into 1m2 pp pa…
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Global population and GDP breakdown by country?
Global population and GDP are broken down in this data-file, across 10 key regions, with data back to 1960 and projections to 2050, as an input to all of our supply-demand models. Population rises at 0.7% pa from 8.0bn in 2023 to 9.7bn in 2050. Real global GDP rises at 2.5% from $105trn in 2023…
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China coal production costs?
China coal production costs are estimated on a full-cycle basis in this data-file, averaging $75/ton across large listed miners, with assets in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. The costs are increasing at $1.3/ton/year, as mines move deeper and into smaller seams. Smaller regional have 1.5-2x higher costs again, and will hit LNG price parity around…
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Internet energy consumption: data, models, forecasts?
This data-file forecasts the energy consumption of the internet, rising from 800 TWH in 2022 to 2,000 TWH in 2030 and 3,750 TWH by 2050. The main driver is the energy consumption of AI, plus blockchains, rising traffic, and offset by rising efficiency. Input assumptions to the model can be flexed. Underlying data are from…
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Air conditioning: energy consumption?
The average US home uses 2,000 kWh of electricity for air conditioners each year. Air conditioning energy consumption is broken down from first principles in this data-file, as a function of temperatures, humidity, heating days, household size, insulation and coefficient of performance (COP). What routes to lower the air conditioning energy demand and CO2 emissions?
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