Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?
We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs eventually improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%…
A Short History of Travel Speeds
This is our database of global travel speeds throughout history. It contains notes on the top travel-speeds attainable by different forms of transportation; plus more granular data on the average…
China Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions, 2000-2060
…dominated by jet fuel, long-distance trucks and shipping. China oil demand in a decarbonization scenario Overall, China’s gross CO2 emissions are seen falling back from 10.5GTpa in 2022 to 8GTpa…
Proton exchange membrane fuel cells: what challenges?
This data-file reviews fifty patents into proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), filed by leading companies in the space in 2020, in order to understand the key challenges the industry…
Wet sand: what impacts on shale breakevens and CO2?
…can be lifted from trucks onto the wellsite with “the fewest touch points and the least modification”. A typical container system carries 23,000-27,000lbs of sand, with a capacity of 28,500…
Lithium ion batteries for electric vehicles: what challenges?
…of “breakthroughs” heralded on any one dimension until all of the trade-offs are clear. (4) Electric semi-trucks are unlikely (we prefer supercapacitors). Many patents noted great challenges scaling up larger…
Vehicle depreciation rates: EVs versus ICEs?
…loss rate has increased by c10% in $/mile terms). In this earlier study, we also evaluated trucks and hydrogen vehicles. The original analysis is also available via the second download…
What oil price is best for energy transition?
…across each component of the oil market. Vehicle fuel economy stalls when oil prices are below $30/bbl, amplifying purchases of inefficient trucks and making EV purchases deeply uneconomical (pages 5-6)….