Search results for: “climate model”
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Bright green hydrogen from biomass gasification?
Woody biomass can be converted into clean hydrogen via gasification. If the resultant CO2 is sequestered, each ton of hydrogen may be associated with -20 tons of CO2 disposal. The economies of hydrogen from biomass gasification require $11/kg-e revenues for a 10% IRR on capex of $3,000/Tpa of biomass, or lower, with CO2 disposal incentives.
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Midstream opportunities in the energy transition?
The midstream industry moves molecules, especially energy-molecules, and especially in pipelines. Despite the mega-trend of electrification, there are still strong midstream opportunities in the energy transition, backstopping volatility and moving new molecules. This short note captures our top ten conclusions. (1) Our overall outlook on the US midstream industry sees the total tonnage of molecules…
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Power transmission: the economics?
This data-file captures the costs of AC power transmission, requiring a 1.5c/kWh spread to earn a 10% levered IRR on a new 100km and 1,000MW transmission line, with capex costs of $1.5/kW-km. These numbers are supported by backup tabs, tabulating the costs of recent projects and a full granular breakdown for the capex costs of…
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Oklo: fast reactor technology?
Oklo is a next-generation nuclear company, based in California, recently going public via SPAC at a $850M valuation, backed by Sam Altman, of Y-Combinator and OpenAI fame. Oklo’s fast reactor technology absorbs high energy neutrons in liquid metal and targets ultimate costs of 4c/kWh. What details can we infer from assessing Oklo’s patents, and can…
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?
Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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Sugar production: the economics?
The costs of sugar production are estimated at $260/ton for a 10% IRR at a world-scale sugar refinery, in a major sugar-producing region. Higher returns are achievable at recent world sugar prices, and by valorizing waste streams such as molasses for ethanol and bagasse for cogenerated electricity.
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Gas power generation across five-minute intervals?
Power generation data are aggregated for ten of the largest CCGTs and gas peaker plants in Australia, across five-minute intervals, May-2024 and May-2014. This makes for a fascinating case study into how gas turbines are used to stabilize power grids, backstop renewables, and how this has changed over time.
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Cemvita Factory: microbial breakthroughs?
Cemvita is a private biotech company, based in Houston, founded in 2017. It has isolated and/or engineered more than 150 microbial strains, aiming to valorize waste, convert CO2 to useful feedstocks, mine scarce metals (e.g., direct lithium extraction) and “brew” a variant of gold hydrogen from depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. This data-file is our Cemvita Factory…
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Electricity demand for electric vehicles?
Global electricity demand for electric vehicles will rise from 120TWH in 2024 to 500 TWH in 2030 and 3,300 TWH in 2050, ultimately adding 11% upside to today’s global electricity demand, as part of our roadmap to net zero. This data-file quantifies electricity demand for EVs by region and over time, including data into the…
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Eastman: molecular recycling technology?
This patent screen reviews Eastman’s molecular recycling technology. Specifically, Eastman is spending over $2bn, to construct 3 plants, with 380kTpa of capacity, to break down hard-to-recycle polyesters back into component monomers, with 20-80% lower CO2 intensity than virgin product. We find evidence for 30-years of fine-tuning, and can bridge to 10% IRRs if buyers pay…
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