Search results for: “climate model”
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Portfolio Construction for Energy Majors?
This data-model calculates risk-adjusted returns for different portfolio weightings in the energy sector, as companies diversify across upstream, downstream, chemicals, corporate; and increasingly, renewables and CCS. A set of optimal portfolio allocations are calculated, which maximise Sharpe ratios. You can also stress-test your own inputs.
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Pipeline costs: moving oil, products or other liquids?
Pipeline costs are modeled in this data-file. $1/bbl is needed to move oil, oil products and other liquid commodities around 500 km at Mbpd scale, and the energy requirements are around 2.1 kWh/bbl, emitting 0.8 kg/bbl of CO2. Economics of scale matter. As a rule of thumb, costs rise by 100% when volumes fall by…
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US shale gas: the economics?
This data-file breaks down the economics of US shale gas, in order to calculate the NPVs, IRRs and gas price breakevens. There is a perception that the US has an infinite supply of gas at $2/mcf, but rising hurdle rates and regulatory risk may require higher prices.
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Ethane cracking: the economics?
This data-file captures the economics of ethane-cracking to produce ethylene. A typical US Gulf Coast facility could generate 15% IRRs at typical capex cost of $1,135/Tpa. CO2 intensity can be as high as 1.7T of CO2 per ton of ethylene, or potentially much lower depending on the facility’s energy efficiency.
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Copper: the economics?
The economic cost of copper production is build up from first princples in this model, from mine, to concentrator, to smelter to 99.99% pure copper cathodes. Our base case is $7.5/kg copper cathode, with 4 tons/ton CO2 intensity, after starting from an 0.57% ore grade. Numbers vary sharply and can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Paper production: energy economics?
Costs of paper production are estimated at $700/ton, at a $2,000/Tpa paper mill, requiring 5,000 kWh/ton of useful energy, and emitting 2.6 tons/ton of CO2, of which 2.2 tons/ton is likely sourced from burning organic material such as waste wood and black liquor. This data-file captures the energy economics of paper production.
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Model of losses in a solar cell: surface, emitter and shading?
This data-file calculates the losses in a solar cell from first principles. Losses on the surface of the cell are typically c4%, due to contact resistance, emitter resistance and shading. Sensitivity analysis suggests there may be future potential to halve silver content in a solar cell from 20g/kW to 10g/kW without materially increasing the losses…
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Selective catalytic reduction: costs of NOx removal?
This data-file captures selective catalytic reduction costs to remove NOx from the exhaust gas of combustion boilers and burners. Our base case estimate is 0.25 c/kWh at a combined cycle gas plant, which equates to $4,000/ton of NOx removed. Capex costs, operating costs, coal plants and marine fuels can be stress-tested in the model.
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Bulk shipping: cost breakdown?
Bulk carriers move 5GTpa of commodities around the world, explaining half of all seaborne global trade. This model is a breakdown of bulk shipping cost. We estimate a cost of $2.5 per ton per 1,000-miles, and a CO2 intensity of 5kg per ton per 1,000-miles. Marine scrubbers increasingly earn their keep and uplift IRRs from…
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Purified terephthalic acid: PTA production costs?
A PTA price of $800-850/ton is needed to earn a 10% IRR on a new, integrated petrochemical facility, catalytically reforming naphtha into paraxylene, then oxidizing the paraxylene into purified terephthalic acid, with upfront capex cost of $1,300/Tpa. Feedstock costs, energy prices and CO2 prices matter too.
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