Wind turbine manufacturers: market share over time?
…margin drivers? Wind is less economically competitive than solar and more prone to cost re-inflation (note here). The industry has also had to reinvent itself every 2-3 years with ever…
Very long term historical commodity prices and disruptions?
…note linked here. https://thundersaidenergy.com/2020/09/03/great-white-whales-the-end-of-oil-and-gas Agricultural commodities followed the pattern of deflating in the 19th century, followed by sharp rises since the inflationary shocks of the 1970s. Generally, wheat prices and…
Methane reforming: costs of grey hydrogen, costs of blue hydrogen?
…see an emerging boom in decarbonizing hydrogen-consuming value chains, especially blue ammonia and blue steel, and especially in the US Gulf Coast region, due to incentives under the Inflation Reduction…
Shifting demand: can renewables reach 50% of grids?
…of the time, >10% curtailment and 30% marginal cost re-inflation for new projects. But a greater share of renewables would help decarbonization. This objective is explained on page 8, showing…
Onshore wind: the economics?
…5-6c/kWh even without a carbon price. Although this is clearly changing amidst higher inflation and interest rates post-2022 (note here). The main cost is capex, which varies between $1,000-3,000/kW (below),…
LNG in the energy transition: rewriting history?
…on a detailed breakdown of capex costs, including upside-downside analysis of project characteristics. Can future projects resist re-inflation if the industry undergoes a vast new up-cycle, as foreseen in our…
Energy transition: conclusions from 6-months on the road?
…of mobility.. . https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/05/27/inflation-will-it-de-rail-the-energy-transition/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/04/29/ethanol-getting-wasted/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/02/25/farming-carbon-into-soils-a-case-study/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/2021/03/11/oil-demand-the-rise-of-autonomous-vehicles/ https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/co2-emissions-from-batteries-when-do-evs-break-even/ Finally, in case your curiosity has been piqued, here is my wife’s take on our US adventures, and our permanent re-location to…
Land prices: an overview for renewables and reforestation?
The purpose of this data-file is to estimate the cost of land, which matters for renewables and reforestation projects, but also amidst rising inflation. Our main conclusion from trying to…
Solar costs: four horsemen?
…challenges, which could stifle future deflation or even re-inflate solar. Most debilitating would be a re-doubling of CO2-intensive PV-silicon. Our 15-page report explores re-inflation risks for solar developers. $499.00 – Purchase Checkout…
Carbon markets: a thought experiment?
…‘debts’ of carbon emissions, then the world could likely find a genuine, low-cost and verifiable route towards net zero. Referenced in the video are our latest views on inflation-risks due…