Momentum behind enhanced geothermal has accelerated 3x in the past half-decade, especially in energy-short Europe, and as pilot projects have de-risked novel well designs. This 18-page report re-evaluates the energy economics of geothermal from first principles. Is there a path to cost-competitive, zero-carbon baseload heat?
Geothermal power is produced from 200 geothermal fields globally, feeding 16GW of power capacity, generating around 110 TWH of useful electricity, which equates to 0.4% of the world’s electricity and 0.15% of its total useful energy. But this is confined to geological hotspots. Broader geothermal resources are 5x total global energy demand, the key challenge is simply accessing them (page 2).
In 2020, we wrote excitedly about the potential to begin accessing deep geothermal energy, using improved drilling and completion technologies that were originally developed by the amazingly innovative US shale industry. But the world has changed, in ways that amplify demand for geothermal, especially in European gas markets (pages 3-4).
Hence momentum has accelerated. Early enhanced geothermal projects were disappointing. More recent projects have been 3x more prevalent. And recent demonstration projects have categorically de-risked prior issues. Ten projects in particular, are reviewed on pages 5-7.
The other major change from 2020 to 2024 is not just the world. It is us. We have spent the past four years trying to deepen our knowledge of the energy from first principles. There is a definitive pathway to cost-competitive deep geothermal, hinging on the enthalpy of hot fluids (page 8), avoiding the energy costs of pumps (page 9) via thermosiphons (page 10), prioritizing heat rather than Rankine cycle power (pages 11-12), and reducing drilling and completion costs (page 13).
Sensitivities for the costs of deep geothermal electricity and deep geothermal heat are discussed on pages 14-15.
Eavor Technologies is a private company founded in 2017, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, employing c100 people. It is the enhanced geothermal company that has made the most interesting progress over the past 3-4 years, including large ongoing projects in Europe. Hence we have reviewed Eavor’s patents, drawing conclusions on pages 16-18.