Which countries are self-sufficient in refining capacity? Which countries export oil products? And which are least self-reliant, thus needing to import oil products, and potentially facing shortfalls in disrupted markets? This data-file estimates global oil refining self-sufficiency by country.
Global refinery utilization ran at c80% in 2025, in line with its 30-year average, suggesting the world has enough refining capacity. But not all countries do. Especially if there are fuel shortages.
Estimating global oil refining self-sufficiency by country involves dividing refinery capacity by country (you get about 80% of the way there, with help from the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review) by oil demand by country (in turn, tabulated from JODI).
However, adjustments are required. For example, we have subtracted out NGL and condensate demand, as this is consumed in fractionation plants and ethane crackers, not in refineries. We have also subtracted out crude that is burned directly (e.g., for power generation in Saudi Arabia). And we have subtracted out crude that is used in naphtha crackers rather than refineries. And finally, we have subtracted out demand that is met from liquid biofuels.
Over 10Mbpd of refining capacity sits in Persian Gulf countries behind the Strait of Hormuz. This covers about 6Mbpd of domestic oil product demand in these countries. But this group could usually export 2-4Mbpd of oil products (depending on utilization rates) to international markets.
Countries/regions with the LOWEST self-sufficiency in refined products are New Zealand, Bangladesh, Australia, ‘other LatAm’, ‘other Africa’, Philippines, and South Africa. These places have only 20-40% coverage of their domestic needs and thus could be highly prone to fuel shortages in 2026, or forced to bid very high prices for scarce cargoes.
The US & Europe. The US should be OK in 2026. Europe should be OK too, overall. Although within Europe, Ireland looks vulnerable (48% self-sufficiency). So do small island nations with no refineries (Malta, Cyprus, Iceland). And the UK, France, Turkey and Poland (80-90%) must top up their domestic production with imports.
If every country/region wanted to have 100% self-sufficiency in refined products, perhaps treating 2026 as a wake-up call over import reliance, it would require constructing another 8Mbpd of global refining capacity. This would double the current pipeline of refinery projects and boost activity for major refinery EPC firms.
Our calculations for oil refining self-sufficiency, across 70 countries-regions, are available in this data-file. Please also see our global refinery model and our screen of global oil refiners.