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Wind power: decline rates?
This data-file aggregates wind generation by facility, across the US, at 1,500 wind farms, going back 25-years. Wind power decline rates average 1.1% per year, then accelerate to 2% per year in years 10-20. However wind generation is also noisy, typically varying +/- 7% YoY. This matters for the economics and ultimate share of wind.
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Cellular networks: how much energy consumption?
The energy consumption of global cellular networks is estimated at 250TWH pa in this data-file, by tabulating the deployment of 5G base stations, and other cellular towers, region-by-region. This matters as physical AI may require more cellular connections, across autonomous vehicles, drones and robotics.
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Delivery drones: flight trajectory?
Delivery drones are finally taking off? Pilot projects in the US are achieving strong safety records, exciting consumers and raising the prospect of sub-$1 deliveries within 10-minutes. This 13-page report explores the future impacts of delivery drones in energy, materials and capital goods.
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Capital goods: book-to-bill ratio tracker?
How long will boom times last in capital goods categories, including for AI data center construction? To answer this question, we have started tracking book-to-bill ratios, across 40 capital goods categories, from companies quarterly results. Booms occur when book-to-bill exceeds 1.5x, and typically last 2-years.
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Zipline: drone delivery technology?
Details of Zipline drone delivery technology are derived in this data-file, based on reviewing over 15 highly detailed patent families from the company. We see a moat around specific hardware innovations, a low cost sensor suite, inherent safety from seven layers of safety protections, and a sophisticated fleet management system.
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Electrical service agreements: how real are those data centers?
Are speculative data center projects, 80% of which will never get built, inflating future load growth forecasts? This 18-page report reviews evidence from land developer returns, recent PUC deliberations and evolving terms in Electrical Service Agreements (ESAs).
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Costs of delivery drones: the energy economics?
The energy economics of delivery drones, which can travel autonomously, over 30km at 100kmph, are captured in this data-file. In our base case, a delivery drone that costs $20k, and makes 8 deliveries per day, must charge a fee of $3/delivery to generate a 10% IRR. Costs, speeds and energy use can be 5-20x superior…
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Sodium ion batteries: comparing costs versus LFP?
Sodium is 1,000x more abundant than lithium in the Earth’s crust and 99% cheaper. So will sodium ion batteries disrupt lithium ion batteries? Not until lithium carbonate prices treble to $40/kg. Or novel SIB electrode materials emerge. This 16-page SIB deep-dive de-risks our lithium market outlook.
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Residential heating costs: boilers, furnaces, electric and heat pumps?
Residential heating costs are compared and contrasted in this data-file, for gas-fired combi boilers, gas furnaces and hot water tanks, oil furnaces and hot water tanks, purely electric heating systems including immersion heaters, air-source heat pumps and ground-source heat pumps. Capex, maintenance and input energy prices can be stress-tested.
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Global heat pump sales by country?
Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 6.5M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% to 2024. 2025 has seen the start of a recovery, with sales rising 4%…
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