Search results for: “shale”
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?
Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency.…
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Flare gas capture: the economics?
c150bcm of gas was flared globally in 2019. This data-file simplifies the economics of capturing flare gas. Generally, double-digit IRRs are achievable at large new shale pads. But costs are more challenging at smaller sites, remote pads or for contaminated gas. Carbon prices would dramatically improve economics. A $100/ton CO2 price could potentially eliminate US…
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Global oil production by country?
Global oil production by country by month is aggregated across 35 countries that produce 80kbpd of crude, NGLs and condensate, explaining >96% of the global oil market. Production has grown by +1Mbpd/year in the past two-decades, led by the US, Iraq, Russia, Canada. Oil market volatility is usually low, at +/- 1.5% per year, of…
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Patent Leaders in Energy
Technology leadership is crucial in energy. But it is difficult to discern. Hence, we reviewed 3,000 patents across the 25 largest companies. This note ranks the industry’s “Top 10 technology-leaders”: in upstream, offshore, deep-water, shale, LNG, gas-marketing, downstream, chemicals, digital and renewables. In each case, we profile the leading company, its edge and the proximity…
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Decline Rates: the consensus?
Global decline rates are currently seen at 5.2% pa in 2020-25, according to our survey. This is lower than historical consensus of 5.7%. Although shale is a headwind, it may be offset by the rise of new digital and offshore technologies. Hence modestly more participants see 2020-25 oil markets as over-supplied.
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Oil markets: in the balance? (1Q21)
Devastating oil under-supplies look less likely on our latest numbers. For 2021, our prior outlook for -3Mbpd under-supply softens to -0.6Mbpd due to lower demand and stronger US/Canada output. Out to 2025, $60-70/bbl oil suffices to balance oil markets, while higher prices could draw in 4Mbpd more shale and Saudi oil.
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Oil markets: more balanced than ever before?
Oil markets look more balanced than at any time in the past 5-years, suggesting prices will most likely move sideways. 2022 is seen -0.3Mbpd under-supplied. There is also an equal one-third chance of a surprise to both the upside and the downside, per our Monte Carlo analysis. Maintaining balance to 2025 is also possible.
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Global coal supply-demand: outlook in energy transition?
Global coal use likely hit a new all-time peak of 8.8GTpa in 2024, of which 7.6GTpa is thermal coal and 1.1GTpa is metallurgical. The largest consumers are China (5GTpa), India (1.3GTpa), other Asia (1.2GTpa), Europe (0.4GTpa) and the US (0.4GTpa). This model presents our forecasts for global coal supply-demand from 1990 to 2050.
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Ventures for an Energy Transition?
This database tabulates c300 venture investments, made by 9 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies, digital technologies and improving mobility. Different companies are compared and contrasted, including the full list of venture investments over time.
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LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down?
Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. This note outlines the technologies, economics and opportunities for LNG as a transport fuel.
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