This 11-page note summarizes the key conclusions from our energy transition research in 1Q24 and across 1,400 companies that have crossed our screens since 2019. Volatility is rising. Power grids are bottlenecked. Hence what stands out in capital goods, clean-tech, solar, gas value chains and materials? And what is most overlooked?

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What if large quantities of power could be transmitted via the 2-6 GHz microwave spectrum, rather than across bottlenecked cables and wires? This 12-page note explores the technology, advantages, opportunities, challenges, efficiencies and costs. We still fear power grid bottlenecks.

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What if the world is entering an era of persistent power grid bottlenecks, with long delays to interconnect new loads? Everything changes. Hence this 16-page report looks across the energy and industrial landscape, to rank the implications across different sectors and companies.

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Power grids will be the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition, according to this 18-page report. Tensions have been building for a decade. They are invisible unless you are looking. And the tightness could last a decade. Further acceleration of renewables may be thwarted. And we are re-thinking grid back-ups.

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Energy transition is the largest construction project in human history. But building in boom times is associated with 2-3x cost inflation. This 10-page note reviews five case studies of prior capex booms, and argues for accelerating FIDs, even in 2024. The outlook for project developers depends on their timing? And who benefits across the supply…

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Solar semiconductors have changed the world, converting light into clean electricity. Hence can thermoelectric semiconductors follow the same path, converting heat into electricity with no moving parts? This 14-page report reviews the opportunity for thermoelectric generation in the energy transition, challenges, efficiency, costs and companies.

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We have attempted a detailed breakdown of global energy demand across 50 categories, to identify emerging opportunities in the energy transition, and suggesting upside to our energy demand forecasts? This 12-page note sets out our conclusions and is intended a useful reference.

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How much new solar can the world absorb in a given year? And are core markets such as the US now maturing? This 15-page note refines our solar forecasts using a new methodology. Annual solar adds will likely plateau at 50-100% of total electricity demand growth in most regions. What implications and adaptation strategies?

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Momentum behind enhanced geothermal has accelerated 3x in the past half-decade, especially in energy-short Europe, and as pilot projects have de-risked novel well designs. This 18-page report re-evaluates the energy economics of geothermal from first principles. Is there a path to cost-competitive, zero-carbon baseload heat?

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Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?

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