Demand
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US population by county by population density?
This data-file aggregates total US population across all 3,150 US counties, every year, from 1970 to 2024. Population has flatlined and even declined in the densest cities with >10,000 people per square mile, while growth is fastest in suburbs with 200-1,500 people per square mile.
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Suburbification: energy upside?
The internet/AI era is pushing people out of dense urban centers into suburbs and exurbs, whose residents use 2-5x more oil and energy. This 15-page report reviews population density data from 3,150 US counties. Suburbification and exurbification have already been adding 0.2-0.8% pa to oil demand, which is seen accelerating further.
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Helicopter economics: costs of helicopter transport?
This data-file captures helicopter economics. For an Airbus SuperPuma, which can carry c20 passengers, helicopter costs are estimated at $4,000/hour and $30/mile, for a c10% IRR on c$30M of capex costs. Economics can be stress-tested for different helicopter models and operating assumptions.
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Global energy demand: by region and through 2050?
This model captures global energy demand by region through 2050, rising from 80,000 TWH in 2019 to 140,000 MWH in 2050. Population rises 0.6% pa. Energy use per global person rises at 1.1% pa, from 11 MWH pp pa to 15 MWH pp pa. So total demand rises at c2% pa. Meeting the energy needs…
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AI power delivery: hit by a bus?
Providing power to AI data centers was a key theme in 2025. But distributing power within them may be just as important for 2026+. More power-dense AI chips require upgrading in-rack buses from 54V to 800V. This 14-page report explores the challenges and opportunities of future AI power delivery architectures.
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Ten Themes for Energy in 2026
2026 will be a year of recalibration. Long-standing theses/trends will break down: including for oil, LNG, geopolitics, EVs, solar, power markets and decarbonization. Energy markets swing from 1% oversupply in 2025, to undersupply in 2027. So which materials and strategies will fare best?
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Global oil demand: no peaking?
Global oil demand was once meant to peak out in 2024-30. But 2025 saw almost 1Mbpd of growth, to 104Mbpd. 2026 should see over 1Mbpd of growth, amplified by a YoY pullback in EV sales. Hence this 15-page report revisits peak global oil demand and sees global refinery utilization tightening by 3-5%.
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Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?
This model forecasts long-run global oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand rising from 104Mbpd in 2024 to a plateau of 107Mbpd in 2030, then easing back to 100Mbpd by 2050.
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Vechile miles traveled by region over time?
Vehicle miles traveled are a crucial measure of mobility and an input variable for predicting global oil demand, averaging 8,600 miles per global vehicle in 2024. This data-file tracks vehicle miles traveled by region, over time, and how it co-varies with urbanization, population density, income, and by travel trip purpose.
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Mobile robotics: the genie and the bottle?
The idea for this report was to dream up interesting uses for autonomous mobile robotics in the future, including in energy and mining. But to our amazement, many of these ideas are already being piloted. We reviewed the pilots in this 18-page report. They suggest transformational economic impacts and moderate energy/materials upside.
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