Power Grids
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Gas generation: timing the cycle?
Gas-fired power generating capacity is in a classic capital cycle. This 16-page report evaluates when the cycle will peak. Gas power demand wants to rise at 3.8% pa through 2050. But high CCGT prices may delay EM growth, bring in new entrants, and substitution towards reciprocating engines.
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US power generation under development over time?
An all-time record of 260GW of new power generation capacity is currently under development in the US in 4Q25, enough to expand the US’s 1.3TW power grid by almost 15%. This data-file tracks US power generation under development, as a leading indicator for gas turbine, wind, solar and battery demand. The pipeline suggests tight power…
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AI power delivery: hit by a bus?
Providing power to AI data centers was a key theme in 2025. But distributing power within them may be just as important for 2026+. More power-dense AI chips require upgrading in-rack buses from 54V to 800V. This 14-page report explores the challenges and opportunities of future AI power delivery architectures.
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Global power price volatility tracker?
The volatility of power grids almost trebled in the decade from 2013-15 to 2023-2025, but actually eased back from 2022 to 2025. This data-file tracks the percentile-by-percentile distributions of power prices, each year, in seven major grid regions (Texas, California, US MidWest, Australia, the UK, Spain, and Germany) as an index of global power price…
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Power cables: carrying capacity and loss rates?
This data-file calculates the power carrying capacity of power cables, plus the resistive losses of power cables. Both are modeled as a function of their voltage, current density, copper and/or aluminium content, resistance and connection type. Underlying data are drawn from data we have tabulated on over 100 conductors, their ratings and costs.
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Power cuts: how frequent are grid disruptions?
This data-file aggregates significant US power grid disruptions, based on data from the DOE. On average, there are 250 power cuts per year in the United States, lasting for a median average of 5-hours, and affecting a median average of 80,000 customers. 20% of the power cuts last longer than 1-day. 15% affect more than…
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Power markets: classical economics?
This 15-page report outlines how wholesale power markets work, which helps to understand four emerging controversies. Wholesale power prices are governed by classic microeconomics: day-ahead markets clear at the intersection of downward sloping demand curves and upward sloping supply curves.
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Electricity pricing: time-of-use tariffs by region?
Time-of-use tariffs mean end customers’ electricity prices are not fixed, but vary across time. ToU tariffs can reduce peak power demand by 10% on average. This data-file tracks the share of customers with time-of-use tariffs, by region, and then focuses in on interesting countries.
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Power electronic capital goods: margins over time?
This data-file tracks power electronic capital goods company margins over time, rising from 10% in 2000-2010, to 12% in 2010-20 and then inflecting to a record 16% in 2025. The increase is mostly driven by higher- and medium-voltage categories, linked to re-accelerating load growth in the United States. Details on each company are in the…
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Industrial heat pump costs: economic model?
Industrial heat pump costs typically average 5c/kWh-th, when generating round-the-clock heat from 6c/kWh electricity, with a 3.5x Coefficient of Performance, and achieving a 60ºC heat lift. Our models do not yet show heat pumps, energized by excess renewables, outcompeting gas heat, especially for larger or higher-temperature applications. Costs can be stress-tested in this model.
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