Our oil price outlook is informed by a 45-line supply-demand model, running month-by-month out to 2025. This download contains both the model, and a 4-page summary of our outlook.
Devastating under-suppliesof oil look less likely on our latest numbers. The market is more balanced than any time we have assessed it in the recent past. Out to 2025, $60-70/bbl oil should also suffice to balance oil markets, while higher prices could draw in 3Mbpd more shale and 1Mbpd more Saudi oil, plus a buffer of 400Mbbls undrawn excess inventories from the COVID crisis.
After ten years forecasting oil markets, our humble conclusion is that all oil models are wrong. Some are nevertheless useful. To be most useful, our model takes a Monte Carlo approach to the key uncertainties, to quantify the “risk” of positive and negative surprises (illustrative example below).
Please download the modelto see, and to flex our input assumptions in 2Q21. Included with the download is a PDF summary of our latest oil price thesis, which is also available separately, linked here.
There is only one way to decarbonise the energy system: leading companies must find economic opportunities in better technologies. No other route can source sufficient capital to re-shape such a vast industry that spends c$2trn per annum. We outline seven game-changing opportunities. Leading energy Majors are already pursuing them in their portfolios, patents and venturing. Others must follow suit.
We see potential for plastic-recycling technologies to displace 15Mbpd of potential oil demand growth (i.e., naphtha, LPGs and ethane) by 2060, compared to a business-as-usual scenario of demand growth. In a more extreme case, oil demand for conventional plastics could halve. This simple model allows you to vary the input assumptions and derive your own outputs.
The 240MTpa shipping-fuels market will be disrupted from 2020, under IMO sulphur regulations. Hence, this data-file breaks down the world’s 100,000-vessel shipping fleet into 13 distinct categories. Fuel consumption is estimated for each category. Distributions of weight and LNG fuel-equivalence are split for the four largest categories. We see 40-60MTpa upside to LNG demand from 2040, led by cruise-ships and large container-ships.
The data-file also includes helpful background on the marine fuels industry and consensus forecasts for LNG demand growth within it (below).
This 8-page report outlines the ‘four goals’ of Thunder Said Energy; and how we hope we can help your process…
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