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Electrical appliances: will AI accelerate efficiency gains?
500,000 AI-related patents were filed in 2025. But electrical appliance manufacturers were particularly active. Hence we used AI ourselves, in this 14-page report, to home in on 50 key patents, which will improve efficiency and flexibility of electrical appliances using AI – in HVAC, lighting, refrigerators, TVs, etc. – which make up 50% of the…
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India: electricity demand and power grid over time?
India’s electricity demand is growing by 6-8% (+100-140 TWH) per year, but 75% of the total still comes from coal, which has itself grown at a 6% CAGR in the past half-decade. India seems to be industrializing primarly around coal + solar, in relatively equal proportions?
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US shale gas: the economics?
US shale gas economics are captured in this data-file, requiring a $2.5/mcf hub-level gas price, for a 10% IRR, on a large, $17M shale gas well in a basin such as the Marcellus. The marginal cost for unlocking c3% pa production growth from key shale basins is likely in a range of $3-4/mcf, but the…
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China energy supply-demand model?
This data-file is our China Energy Model and China CO2 Model, disaggregating China’s energy demand by industry, across coal, oil, gas, wind, solar, hydro and nuclear, across c200 lines, from 2000-2060, with 20-input variables that can be stress-tested. By 2050, useful energy demand rises by 38%, electricity demand doubles, and CO2 falls back by 40%.
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Solar trackers: leading companies?
This data-file summarizes the leading companies in solar trackers, their market share, pricing (in $/kW), operating margins (in %), company sizes, sales mixes and recent news flow. Five companies supply 70% of the market, which is worth $10bn pa. But competition is intensifying from East-West dual-tile arrays and within the tracker industry.
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China coal production costs?
China coal production costs are estimated on a full-cycle basis in this data-file, averaging $65/ton across large, listed miners, with assets in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, and 1.5-2x higher again for smaller regional prices. The costs had been increasing at $1.3/ton/year through 2023, but moderated in 2024-25. But could marginal Chinese coal prices hit…
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Schlumberger: AI and machine learning patents?
We have screened 65 Schlumberger AI and machine learning patents, filed in 2024-25. This is more than any other energy company. We expect AI to improve shale well productivity, entrench the reliance on Schlumberger tools and services, while also reducing costs, labor, time and net energy use in oil and gas.
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Oil price elasticity of demand: how high can oil prices go?
What is the price elasticity of oil demand — globally, by region, and by product? This 11-page report argues that a supply disruption of 10-20Mbpd magnitude, lasting for 6-12 months, pushes oil above $250/bbl, and also zeroes global GDP growth. Rationing and solar/EV substitution may cushion the impact.
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Exploration capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?
This data-file tabulates the Oil Majors’ exploration capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (in billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms (in $/boe of production). Exploration spending quadrupled from $1/boe in 1995-2005 to $4/boe in 2005-19, and has since collapsed like a warm Easter Egg. Exploration has been de-prioritized. Perhaps wrongly?
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Aixtron: power GaN MOCVD technology?
Aixtron has a market leading position in GaN MOCVD technology, which is increasingly used in the power electronics of data centers, solar and EVs. This data-file assesses 20 patents from Aixtron and Veeco, to unpack how GaN MOCVD works, what are the key challenges, and to quantify Aixtron’s potential moat.
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