Written Research
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Circular economy: is AI a game changer?
10 companies have recently launched AI-enabled robotics to recover value from the world’s 2.3GTpa of solid waste. Picking rates are 4x faster than humans. c1-year paybacks are quoted. Hence today’s 17-page report explores the implications for gas, power, metals, materials and oil markets, amidst a step-change in the circular economy.
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Gas generation: timing the cycle?
Gas-fired power generating capacity is in a classic capital cycle. This 16-page report evaluates when the cycle will peak. Gas power demand wants to rise at 3.8% pa through 2050. But high CCGT prices may delay EM growth, bring in new entrants, and substitution towards reciprocating engines.
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Solid state circuit breakers: another AI enabler?
Further upscaling of AI is only possible via improved power electronics. Hence this 17-page report explores solid state circuit breakers, which offer 1,000x faster fault protection and greater controllability. How do SSCBs work? What do they cost? Who benefits? And who is displaced?
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Suburbification: energy upside?
The internet/AI era is pushing people out of dense urban centers into suburbs and exurbs, whose residents use 2-5x more oil and energy. This 15-page report reviews population density data from 3,150 US counties. Suburbification and exurbification have already been adding 0.2-0.8% pa to oil demand, which is seen accelerating further.
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AI power delivery: hit by a bus?
Providing power to AI data centers was a key theme in 2025. But distributing power within them may be just as important for 2026+. More power-dense AI chips require upgrading in-rack buses from 54V to 800V. This 14-page report explores the challenges and opportunities of future AI power delivery architectures.
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Ten Themes for Energy in 2026
2026 will be a year of recalibration. Long-standing theses/trends will break down: including for oil, LNG, geopolitics, EVs, solar, power markets and decarbonization. Energy markets swing from 1% oversupply in 2025, to undersupply in 2027. So which materials and strategies will fare best?
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Global oil demand: no peaking?
Global oil demand was once meant to peak out in 2024-30. But 2025 saw almost 1Mbpd of growth, to 104Mbpd. 2026 should see over 1Mbpd of growth, amplified by a YoY pullback in EV sales. Hence this 15-page report revisits peak global oil demand and sees global refinery utilization tightening by 3-5%.
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Mobile robotics: the genie and the bottle?
The idea for this report was to dream up interesting uses for autonomous mobile robotics in the future, including in energy and mining. But to our amazement, many of these ideas are already being piloted. We reviewed the pilots in this 18-page report. They suggest transformational economic impacts and moderate energy/materials upside.
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Autonomous transport: the Leipzig test?
This 13-page report explores the upside in autonomous transport. We were recently invited to a fascinating company event in Leipzig, Germany. But it was too complex to reach by flying. It would have been doable in an autonomous vehicle, albeit using 2x more energy overall. So could autonomous vehicles unlock 5Mbpd of global oil demand…
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Roadmap to net zero: 2025 and beyond?
This 19-page report explores the world’s progress towards net zero, amidst the harsh economic reality of 2025+. Which decarbonization technologies are still progressing, which are scaling back, and why? What if the current trajectory is ultimately seen to be enough?
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