Below is an overview of our written research into energy technologies and the energy transition, to help you navigate our work, by topic. The summary below captures 1,000 pages of output, across 50 research notes and 40 online articles since April-2019.
Energy Transition Technologies
The most economic route to ‘net zero’ is to ramp renewables to 20% of the total energy mix, treble demand for natural gas, pursue industrial efficiency gains, make fossil fuels the most efficient and lowest carbon possible, and then capture or offset the remaining CO2. Total investment of $70trn is required and CO2 prices do not need to surpass $75/ton.
Investing for an Energy Transition (Oct-19, 18-pages)
Energy Transition Technologies: the pace of progress? (July-2020, 3-pages)
What Oil Price is best for an energy transition? (April-2020, 15-pages)
TRLs: When does technology get exciting? (May-2019, online)
Nature Based Solutions to Climate Change
Nature based solutions include reforestation, restoring soil carbon and biomass burial. These are the largest and lowest cost options in the energy transition. They will ramp up vastly in the 2020s, creating new opportunities for for every sector to sell carbon-neutral products while earning elevated returns.
Nature based solutions to climate change: a summary (July-2020, online)
Reforestation: Can carbon-neutral fuels re-shape the oil industry? (May-2020, 26-pages)
Decarbonize Gas: how to make a gas value chain CO2 neutral? (Mar-2020, 15-pages)
Conservation agriculture: farming carbon into soils? (May-2020, 17-pages)
Biomass burial: better to bury biofuels than the burn them? (May-2020, 12-pages)
Green deserts: a final frontier for forest carbon? (July-2020, 18-pages)
Oil and Gas Markets
Oil and gas remain crucial in our decarbonized energy models. Our long-term outlook sees sharp demand growth for natural gas, while oil could also rebound rapidly after the COVID crisis. Hence we bridge to record under-supply in both commodities in the mid-2020s.
Oil Markets: the next up-cycle? (July-2020, 4-pages)
On the road: long-run oil markets after COVID-19? (May-2020, 17-pages)
LNG: deep disruptions and a 100MTpa shortfall? (Apr-2020, 6-pages)
2050 oil markets: opportunities in peak demand? (Sep-19, 20-pages)
The ascent of global LNG demand? (Sep-2019, online)
Drone Attacks on Energy Assets? (Sep-2019, online)
Natural Gas
Gas demand could treble between now and 2050, in order to achieve an economic energy transition. This requires minimizing methane leaks and unlocking decarbonized gas technologies, which are among the top opportunities in our gas research.
Decarbonize Heat: a cost comparison of 20 technologies? (May-2020, 20-pages)
Mitigating methane leaks in global gas: catch methane if you can? (Dec-2019, 23-pages)
DeCarbonizing Carbon: Oxy-Combustion and Chemical Looping Combustion (July-2020, 19-pages)
Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: what if carbon capture generated electricity? (Feb-2020, 27-pages)
LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down? (May-2019, 20-pages)
Do methane leaks detract from natural gas? (Mar-2020, online)
Reliable remote power to mitigate methane? (Apr-2020, online)
Satellites: the spy who loved methane? (Dec-2019, online)
Shell drives LNG in transport? (July-2019, online)
Wind and Solar
The optimal share of renewables in a decarbonized energy system is 20-40%, but not higher. The opportunities that excite us most are next-generation wind and solar.
Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit the optimal grid? (Feb-2020, 24-pages)
Solar energy: is 50% efficiency now attainable? (July-20, online)
Two Majors’ Secret Race for the Future of Offshore Wind? (Apr-2019, online)
Offshore Wind: Tracking Turbines with Satellites and Machine Learning? (Jan-2020, online)
Perovskites: Lord of Light? (June-2019, online)
Energy Storage & Hydrogen
We are cautious on energy storage, due to the economics. Lithium ion batteries may be disrupted, while technical and economic challenges are under-appreciated. We are also cautious on the role of hydrogen in the energy transition due to low round-trip energy efficiencies, high costs and complex storage.
Decarbonized power: how much wind and solar fit the optimal grid? (Feb-2020, 24-pages)
Green Hydrogen Economy: Holy Roman Empire (July-2020, 16-pages)
Energy storage: will supercapacitors disrupt batteries? (June-2020, 20-pages)
Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand? (Feb-2020, 13-pages)
Good batteries versus bad batteries: round trip? (June-2019, online)
Transportation & Vehicles
Electrification of vehicles goes far beyond the current trend of electric cars. Much more exciting are new, light vehicle concepts that would never have been possible using combustion-based power trains. They can be revolutionary. Heavy vehicles will remain fossil-fuelled with energy savings from hybridization.
Green hydrogen trucks: delivery costs? (Jul-2020, 18-pages)
Remote possibilities: working from home? (Mar-2020, 21-pages)
Electric Vehicles Increase Fossil Fuel Demand? (Feb-2020, 13-pages)
Drones & droids: deliver us from e-commerce (Oct-19, 20-pages)
Scooter Wars: are smaller electric vehicles better? (July-2019, 13-pages)
Aerial ascent: why flying cars will fly? (June-2019, 21-pages)
Could new airships displace trucks? (Feb-2020, online)
De-Carbonising Cars. Can Oxy-Combustion Save Gasoline? (July-2019, online)
Robot delivery: unbelievable fuel economy? (June-2019, online)
Industrial Efficiency & Digitization
Global carbon prices will be instated in the 2020s and re-shape the cost curve in every industry. Our research identifies technologies that will help to lower CO2 intensity and improve returns in the process.
Additive Manufacturing: 3D printing an energy transition? (June-2020, 21-pages)
Efficient frontiers: improvements from a CO2 price within oil and gas? (June-2020, 14-pages)
Digitization after the crisis: who benefits and how much? (Apr-2020, 22-pages)
More dangerous than coronavirus? The safety case for digital and remote operations (Apr-2020, online)
Internet versus Oil: CO2 contrast? (Nov-2019, online)
CO2-labelling for an energy transition? (Nov-2019, online)
Disrupting Agriculture: Energy Opportunities? (Sep-2019, online)
Digital Deflation: How Hard to Save $1/boe? (June-2019, online)
Oil Majors
Attaining ‘Net Zero’ is an opportunity for leading Oil Majors to uplift their valuations by c50% while driving the energy transition. It requires making the right portfolio shifts, reducing CO2 intensity, growing through advanced technologies and enhancing retail returns by CO2-offsetting their products.
Net zero Oil Majors: four cardinal virtues? (June-2020, 19-pages)
Net Zero Oil Majors: what cost? worth the cost? (July-2020, online)
Upstream technology leaders: weathering the downturn? (Apr-2020, 14-pages)
Portfolio Perspectives: what is the optimal Major’s allocation to renewables? (Nov-19, 7-pages)
Shell: innovating the future of LNG plants? (Jan-2020, 16-pages)
Patent Leaders in Energy (Sep-19, 34-pages, and a video)
Oil Companies Drive the Energy Transition? (June-2020, 17-pages)
Chevron: SuperMajor shale in the 2020s? (Feb-2020, 11-pages)
Does technology drive returns in a commodity sector? (Aug-2019, online)
The Shale Revolution
Shale productivity continues to improve at a phenomenal pace and will re-define the oil and gas industry, with potential to produce 25Mbpd of liquids from the bottom of the cost curve. The best-operated shales could be carbon neutral.
US Shale: the quick and the dead? (May-2020, 10-pages)
Shale growth: what if the Permian went CO2-neutral? (Dec-2019, 26-pages)
US Shale: No Country for Old Completion Designs (Aug-2019, 18-pages)
Shale: upgrade to fiber? (July-2019, 25-pages)
CO2-EOR in shale: the holy grail? (Aug-2019, online)
Enhanced Oil Recovery in Shales: container class? (May-2019, 16-pages)
US Shale: Winner Takes All? (Apr-2019, 13-pages)
An EOG digitization: pumped up? (Jan-2020, online)
EOG Completions: plugged in? (Apr-2019, online)
New Diverter Regimes for Dendritic Frac Geometries? (Nov-2019, online)
Pioneer: machine learning on Permian seismic? (Apr-2019, online)
Permian CO2-EOR: pushing the boundaries? (July-2019, online)
Offshore Oil & Gas
Offshore oil and gas will be forced to redefine itself to compete with shale. Again, the best projects can achieve CO2 neutrality, as well as higher NPVs per barrel than shale.
The future of offshore: fully subsea? (Mar-2020, 21-pages)
Johan Sverdrup: Don’t Decline? (July-2019, 15-pages)
Guyana: will low carbon credentials lower capital costs? (Oct-2019, 17-pages)
Mero Revolutions: countering CO2 in pre-salt Brazil? (Aug-2019, 16-pages)
Can technology revive offshore oil and gas? (May-2019, 18-pages)
New riser designs for pre-salt Brazil? (Aug-2019, online)
Downstream & Chemicals
The most exciting opportunities are next-generation catalysts and capturing further value in waste plastics.
Decarbonize downstream: a digital transformation in catalyst science? (Nov-2019, 25-pages)
Plastic Pyrolysis: Turn the Plastic Into Oil (Apr-2019, 16-page report)
Turn waste plastic into roads? (Apr-2020, 6-pages)
Carbon-negative plastics: a breakthrough (from TOTAL)? (June-2020, online)
Do refineries become bio-refineries in the energy transition? (Sep-2019, online)
Shale: restoring downstream balance? New opportunities in ethylene and diesel (June-2019, online)
IMO 2020. Fast Resolution or Slow Resolution? (May-2019, online)
CO2, Climate and Other
We practice what we preach and were a CO2 neutral business in 2019. Further observations on the energy transition debate follow below.
Thunder Said Energy: CO2 Neutral in 2019? (Jan-2020, 9-pages)
Climate science: staring into the sun? (Feb-2020, online)
Energy Transition: polarized perspectives? (Jan-2020, online)
The Most Powerful Force in the Universe? (Jan-2020, online)
Subscriptions to our research
In addition to the above, over 200 data-files are available to our subscription clients. This includes economic models, screens of technology leaders, patent screens and CO2 comparisons to identify the lower- and higher-carbon companies within different sub-sectors. For further details of our firm-wide subscription packages, please see here.