Hydrocarbon Energy Research

Hydrocarbons denote commodities that are extracted from the Earth, composed of carbon and hydrogen, refined, and then combusted for energy or converted into useful materials. Hydrocarbons currently supply over 80% of the world’s useful energy, evenly split across natural gas (methane), oil products and coal. A crucial objective in the energy transition is to maintain hydrocarbon supplies, economically, in order to prevent debilitating energy shortages, and to fuel the transition itself. Other crucial objectives are to reduce hydrocarbons’ CO2 intensity (Scope 1&2), shift to lower-carbon hydrocarbons (e.g., coal to gas switching), improve efficiency factors; and then abate all of the remaining CO2, including via pre-combustion CCS, post-combustion CCS and nature-based solutions. Opportunities in our recent hydrocarbon research are explored below.

Oil Research

US shale: outlook and forecasts?

This model sets out our US shale production forecasts by basin. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. US shale likely adds +1Mbpd/year of production growth from 2023-2030, albeit flatlining in 2024, then re-accelerating on higher oil prices?
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Commodity intensity of global GDP in 30 key charts?

The commodity intensity of global GDP has fallen at -1.2% over the past half-century, as incremental GDP is more services-oriented. So is this effect adequately reflected in our commodity outlooks? This 4-page report plots past, present and forecasted GDP intensity factors, for 30 commodities, from 1973->2050. Oil is anomalous. And several commodities show rising GDP intensity.
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Oil demand: making millions?

What does it take to move global oil demand by 1Mbpd? This 22-page note ranks fifteen themes, based on their costs and possible impacts. We still think oil demand plateaus around 105Mbpd mid-late in the 2020s, before declining to 85Mbpd by 2050. But the risks now lie to the upside?
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Japan oil demand: breakdown over time?

Japan’s oil demand peaked at 5.8Mbpd in 1996, and has since declined at -2.0% per year to 3.4Mbpd in 2023. To some, this trajectory may be a harbinger of events to come in broader global oil markets? While to others, Japan has unique features that do not generalize globally? Hence this report and data-file...
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Commodity price volatility: energy, metals and ags?

Commodity price volatility tends to be lognormally distributed, based on the data from ten commodities, over the past 50-years. Means are 20% higher than medians. Skew factors average +1.5x. Standard errors average 50%, while more volatile prices have more upside skew.
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Offshore oilfields: development capex over time in Norway?

Across 130 offshore oil fields in Norway, going back ato 1975, real development capex per flowing barrel of production has averaged $33M/kboed. Average costs have been 2x higher when building during a boom, when one-third of projects blew out to around $100M/kboed or higher. The data support countercyclical investment strategies in energy.
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Oil markets: rising volatility?

Oil markets endure 4 major volatility events per year, with a magnitude of +/- 320kbpd, on average. Their net impact detracts -100kbpd. OPEC and shale have historically buffered out the volatility, so annual oil output is 70% less volatile than renewables’ output. This 10-page note explores the numbers and the changes that lie ahead?
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Global oil production by country?

Global oil production by country by month is aggregated across 35 countries that produce 80kbpd of crude, NGLs and condensate, explaining >96% of the global oil market. Production has grown by +1Mbpd/year in the past two-decades, led by the US, Iraq, Russia, Canada. Oil market volatility is usually low, at +/- 1.5% per year, of which two-thirds is down to conscious decisions.
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Combustion fuels: density, ignition temperature and flame speed?

The quality of a combustion fuel comes down to its physical and chemical properties. Hence the purpose of this data-file is to aggregate data into different fuels' energy content (kg/m3), energy density (kWh/kg, kWh/gal), flash point (ºC), auto-ignition point (ºC) and flame speed (m/s, cm/s). Conclusions about high quality fuels follow.
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Diesel power generation: levelized costs?

A multi-MW scale diesel generator requires an effective power price of 20c/kWh, in order to earn a 10% IRR, on c$700/kW capex, assuming $70 oil prices and c150km trucking of oil products to the facility. Economics can be stress-tested in the Model-Base tab.
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Commercial aviation: fuel economy of planes?

This data-file calculates the fuel economy of planes from first principles, using physics to calculate lift and drag, and comparing with actual data from aircraft manufacturers. The typical fuel economy of a plane is 80 passenger-mpg to carry 400 passengers, 8,000km at 900kmph, using jet fuel with 12,000 Wh/kg energy density. What sensitivities and decarbonization opportunities?
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Development capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the five 'Big Oil' Super-Majors' development capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms ($/boe of production). Real development spending quadrupled from $6/boe in 1995-2000 to $24/boe in 2010-15, and has since collapsed to $10/boe. So one cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?

This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical variations in the range of +/- 50%.
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Global oil demand: breakdown by product by country?

This data-file breaks down global oil demand, country-by-country, product-by-product, month-by-month, across 2017-2022. The goal is to summarize the effects of COVID, and the subsequent recovery in oil markets. Global oil demand is hitting new highs, even though several product categories are still not fully recovered.
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Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?

This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s, peaking at 105Mbpd in 2026-28, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.
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Flaring reduction: fire extinguishers?

Controversies over oil industry flaring are re-accelerating, especially due to the methane slip from flares, now feared as high as 8% globally. The skew entails that more CO2e could be emitted in producing low quality barrels (Scope 1) than in consuming high quality barrels (Scope 3). Environmental impacts are preventable. This 10-page note explores how, across producers and energy services.
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US CO2 and Methane Intensity by Basin

The CO2 intensity of oil and gas production is tabulated for 425 distinct company positions across 12 distinct US onshore basins in this data-file. Using the data, we can aggregate the total upstream CO2 intensity in (kg/boe), methane leakage rates (%) and flaring intensity (in mcf/boe), by company, by basin and across the US Lower 48.
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Flaring reduction: screen of service and equipment companies?

This data-file is a screen of companies that can reduce routine flaring and reduce the ESG impacts of unavoidable residual flaring. The landscape is broad, ranging from large, listed and diversified oil service companies with $30bn market cap to small private analytics companies with
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US Refinery Database: CO2 intensity by facility?

This US refinery database covers 125 US refining facilities, with an average capacity of 150kbpd, and an average CO2 intensity of 33 kg/bbl. Upper quartile performers emitted less than 20 kg/bbl, while lower quartile performers emitted over 40 kg/bbl. The goal of this refinery database is to disaggregate US refining CO2 intensity by company and by facility.
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Exploration capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the Oil Majors' exploration capex from the mid-1990s, in billions of dollars ($bn pa) and in per-barrel terms (in $/boe). Exploration spending quadrupled from $1/boe in 1995-2005 to $4/boe in 2005-19, and has since collapsed like a warm Easter Egg. One cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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Weird recessions: can commodities de-couple?

In a ‘weird recession’, GDP growth turns negative, yet commodity prices continue surprising to the upside. This 10-page note explores three reasons that 2022-24 may bring a ‘weird recession’. There is historical precedent, prices must remain high to attract new investment and buyers may stockpile bottlenecked materials. How will this affect different industries?
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How do commodities perform during recessions?

How do commodities perform in recessions? Industrial metals are usually hit hardest, falling 35% peak-to-trough. Energy price spikes partly cause two-thirds of recessions, then typically trade back to pre-recession levels. Precious metals, mainly gold, tend to appreciate in financial crises. Data are compiled in this file, across recessions back to 1970.
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World’s largest energy assets: by category and risk?

The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world's largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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Offshore oil: marginal cost?

What is the marginal cost of offshore oil and gas? This data-file captures a small project, off Africa, with $15/boe development cost, $15/boe opex, 70% fiscal take. Break-even is at $35-45/bbl. But a $90/bbl forward curve may be needed for definitive go-ahead.
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Sulphur recovery units: Claus process economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing sulphur from H2S via the Claus process, yielding an important input for phosphate fertilizers and metals. Cash costs are $40-60/ton and marginal costs are $100/ton. CO2 intensity is low at 0.1 tons/ton. Data-file explores shortages in energy transition?
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Energy security: the return of long-term contracts?

Spot markets have delivered more and more ‘commodities on demand’. But is this model fit for energy transition? Many markets are now short, causing explosive price rises. Sufficient volumes may still not be available at any price. This note considers a renaissance for long-term contracts.
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Energy development times: first consideration to full production?

Full cycle development times tend to average c4-years for large solar projects, 6-years for large offshore wind, 7-years for new pipelines, 7-years for new oil and gas projects, 9-years for new LNG plants and 13-years for new nuclear plants. This data-file reviews 35 case studies.
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Oil storage terminals: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of constructing an oil storage terminal (aka a "tank farm"). A typical facility needs to charge a $1.5/bbl storage spread to earn a 10% IRR over a 30-year life. Capex costs per kWh of energy are 97% lower than grid-scale batteries. It may become more challenging to finance new facilities in the energy transition.
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Global oil demand: rumors of my death?

‘Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated’. Mark Twain’s quote also applies to global oil consumption. This note aggregates demand data for 8 oil products and 120 countries over the COVID pandemic. We see 3.5Mbpd of pent-up demand ‘upside’, acting as a floor on medium-term oil prices.
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Oil demand: how much can you save in a crisis?

Oil consuming countries are encouraged to have emergency plans to save 7-10% of their demand in a crisis. This data-file outlines how. c10Mbpd could be saved globally. But it requires extreme measures. Largest are odd-even rationing, ride-sharing, free public transit and lower highway speed limits.
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Russia: a breakdown of export revenues?

Russia's total total exports ran at $425bn in 2019, comprising $225bn of oil, $55bn of gas, $50bn of metals, $20bn of coal, $30bn basic materials and $25bn of ag products. 55% of the total goes to Europe. This data-file gives a breakdown for 100 products across 200 countries, to allow for stress-testing.
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US CCS: market sizing?

This data-file aims to bound the potential market-size for CCS in the US, which is around 500MTpa. Our bottom up calculations look industry-by-industry. To put this in perspective, we also quantified how many million tons of oil and gas have been extracted out of subsurface reservoirs in the US over the past 40-years.
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Commercial aviation: air travel economics?

This data-file estimates the economics of a passenger jet, over the course of its life: i.e., what ticket price must be charged to earn a 10% IRR after covering the capex costs of the plane, fuel costs, crew, maintenance and airport and air traffic charges. Decarbonization is challenging.
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Container freight: shipping economics?

This data-file models the total costs of shipping a container c10,000 nautical miles from China to the West, in a 20,000 TEU vessel. Emerging fuels can lower the CO2 intensity of shipping from their baseline of 0.15kg/TEU-mile, by 60-90%, but freight costs inflate by 30%-3x.
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Electro-fuels: start out as a billionaire?

Electro-fuels are hydrocarbons produced from renewable power, CO2 and water. They are reminiscent of the adage that ‘the fastest way to become a millionaire is to start out as a billionaire then found an airline’. Because all you need for 1boe of these zero-carbon fuels is 2-3 boe of practically free renewable energy.
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Oil markets: more balanced than ever before?

Oil markets look more balanced than at any time in the past 5-years, suggesting prices will most likely move sideways. 2022 is seen -0.3Mbpd under-supplied. There is also an equal one-third chance of a surprise to both the upside and the downside, per our Monte Carlo analysis. Maintaining balance to 2025 is also possible.
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Power-to-liquids: the economics?

Liquid transport fuels with almost no CO2 emissions could be created from renewable energy, by electrolysing water and CO2, then combining the hydrogen and CO, e.g., via Fischer Tropsch. This simple models stress tests the economics. Our base case estimates are for costs between $400-600/bbl ($10-14/gallon).
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Biogas-to-liquids: decarbonize aviation fuels?

This 15-page report evaluates a pathway for sustainable aviation fuels, feeding biogas into a Fischer-Tropsch reactor. Bio-GTL will likely cost 3x more than conventional jet fuel, for a 75% reduction in CO2, giving an abatement cost of $550/ton. We still prefer nature-based carbon offsets to decarbonize aviation.
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Gas-to-liquids: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of gas-to-liquids via Fischer-Tropsch. Our base case requires $100/bbl realizations for a 10% IRR on a US project. You can stress-test the economics as a function of gas prices, capex costs, thermal efficiencies, et al, in the data-file.
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Hydroprocessing: the economics?

This model requires a $7.5/bbl upgrade spread to earn a 10% IRR across a new hydrocracking or hydrotreating unit. CO2 emissions are around 25kg/bbl. Green hydrogen could be used for decarbonization, but it would require 3x higher upgrading spreads to remain economical.
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Shale Research

US shale: outlook and forecasts?

This model sets out our US shale production forecasts by basin. It covers the Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford, as a function of the rig count, drilling productivity, completion rates, well productivity and type curves. US shale likely adds +1Mbpd/year of production growth from 2023-2030, albeit flatlining in 2024, then re-accelerating on higher oil prices?
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Shale oil: fractured forecasts?

This 17-page note makes the largest changes to our shale forecasts in five years, on both quantitative and qualitative signs that productivity growth is slowing. Productivity peaks after 2025, precisely as energy markets hit steep undersupply. We still see +1Mbpd/year of liquids potential through 2030, but it is back loaded, and requires persistently higher oil prices?
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Flaring reduction: fire extinguishers?

Controversies over oil industry flaring are re-accelerating, especially due to the methane slip from flares, now feared as high as 8% globally. The skew entails that more CO2e could be emitted in producing low quality barrels (Scope 1) than in consuming high quality barrels (Scope 3). Environmental impacts are preventable. This 10-page note explores how, across producers and energy services.
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US CO2 and Methane Intensity by Basin

The CO2 intensity of oil and gas production is tabulated for 425 distinct company positions across 12 distinct US onshore basins in this data-file. Using the data, we can aggregate the total upstream CO2 intensity in (kg/boe), methane leakage rates (%) and flaring intensity (in mcf/boe), by company, by basin and across the US Lower 48.
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Flaring reduction: screen of service and equipment companies?

This data-file is a screen of companies that can reduce routine flaring and reduce the ESG impacts of unavoidable residual flaring. The landscape is broad, ranging from large, listed and diversified oil service companies with $30bn market cap to small private analytics companies with
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European shale: an overview?

Europe has 15 TCM of technically recoverable shale gas resources. This data-file aims to provide a helpful overview, as we expect exploration to re-accelerate. Ukraine has the best shale in Europe, which may even be a motivation for Russian aggression. Other countries with good potential, held back only by sentiment are Romania, Germany, UK, Bulgaria and Spain.
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Marcellus shale: well by well production database?

This large data-file tracks activity, well-by-well, across c11,000 wells in the Pennsylvania Marcellus, month-by-month, from 2015-2021. First tier operators stand out, especially as the basin has consolidated. They achieve higher IP rates and have been able to do more with less.
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Methane emissions from pneumatic devices: by operator, by basin?

Methane leaks from 1M pneumatic devices across the US onshore oil and gas industry comprise 50% of all US upstream methane leaks and 20% of upstream CO2. This file aggregates the data. Rankings reveal operators with a pressing priority to replace >100,000 medium and high bleed devices, and other best-in-class companies.
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US shale gas: the economics?

This data-file breaks down the economics of US shale gas, in order to calculate the NPVs, IRRs and gas price breakevens. There is a perception that the US has an infinite supply of gas at $2/mcf, but rising hurdle rates and regulatory risk may require higher prices.
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Shale productivity: snakes and ladders?

Unprecedented high-grading is now occurring in the US shale industry, amidst challenging industry conditions. This means production surprising to the upside in 2020-21 and disappointing during the recovery. Our 7-page note explores the causes and consequences of the whipsaw effect.
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US shale: the economics?

This model breaks down the economics of US shale, including a granular build-up of capex costs across 18 different categories. Our base case requires a $40/bbl oil price for a 10% IRR at a $7.0M shale well with a 1.0 kboed IP30. Economics range from $35-50/bbl. They are most sensitive to productivity.
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US shale sand mines: simple economics?

This model is a very simple breakdown of economics for in-basin sand production, around the US shale industry. The model can also be used to quantify the potential savings from shifting from dry sand to wet sand, estimated at c25% of total costs.
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US shale: our outlook in the energy transition?

This presentation covers our outlook for the US shale industry in the 2020s, and was presented at a recent investor conference. It covers the importance of shale oil supplies in balancing future oil markets, our outlook for 5% annual productivity growth, and the opportunity for carbon-neutrality to attract capital.
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US Shale: the second coming?

US shale productivity can still rise at a 5% CAGR to 2025, based on evaluating 300 technical papers from 2020. The latest improvements are discussed in this 12-page note. Thus unconventionals could quench deeply under-supplied oil markets by 2025. Leading technologies are also becoming concentrated in the hands of fewer operators.
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Ventures for an Energy Transition?

This database tabulates c300 venture investments, made by 9 of the leading Oil Majors. Their strategy is increasingly geared to advancing new energies, digital technologies and improving mobility. Different companies are compared and contrasted, including the full list of venture investments over time.
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US shale: the quick and the dead?

It is no longer possible to compete in the US shale industry without leading digital technologies. This 10-page note outlines best practices, process by process, based on 500 patents and 650 technical papers. Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil lead our screens. Falling from the leader-board is EOG, whose long-revered technical edge may have been eclipsed.
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Fugitive methane: what components are leaking?

This data-file looks through 35 technical papers to tabulate methane leaks from different components around the oil and gas industry. The largest are losses of well control (up to 1MTpa), then mid-downstream facilities (up to 10kTpa), compressors (up to 100T), pneumatic devices, wellheads and liquid unloading (up to 10T).
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Hydraulic Fracturing: where’s the IP?

This data-file tracks 17,000 hydraulic fracturing patents filed by geography, by company, by year, since 2010. 2020 has slowed by 6% from peak, with a c36% US slowdown masked by a 33% Chinese expansion. Remarkably, in 2019, the leading Chinese Major filed more patents than the leading US Service provider. The full data-file ranks the companies.
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Chevron: SuperMajor Shale in 2020?

SuperMajors’ shale developments are assumed to differ from E&Ps’ mainly in their scale and access to capital. Access to superior technologies is rarely discussed. But new evidence is emerging. This note assesses 40 of Chevron’s shale patents from 2019, showing a vast array of data-driven technologies, to optimize every aspect of shale.
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EOG’s Digitization: Pumped-Up?

EOG patented a new digital technology in 2019: a load assembly which can be built into its rod pumps: to raise efficiency, lower costs and lower energy consumption (i.e., CO2). This short note reviews the patent, illustrating how EOG is working to further digitize its processes, maximise productivity and minimise CO2 intensity.
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Blockchain in the Oil & Gas Supply Chain

This datafile tabulates ten examples of deploying Blockchain in the oil and gas industry since 2017; including companies and cost savings. Most prior examples are in trading. For 2020, we are particularly excited by the broadening of Blockchain technologies into the procurement industry, which can deflate shale costs.
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Ten Themes for Energy in 2020

Energy transition is maturing as an investment theme. ‘Obvious’ portfolio tilts are beginning to look over-crowded. Non-obvious ones are looking over-looked. This note outlines the ‘top ten’ themes that excite us most in 2020, among commodities, drivers of the energy transition, market perceptions and corporate strategies.
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Shale growth: what if the Permian went CO2-neutral?

Shale growth is slowing due to fears over the energy transition, as Permian upstream CO2 emissions reached a new high this year. We have disaggregated the CO2 across 14 causes. It could be eliminated by improved technologies and operations: making Permian production carbon neutral, uplifting NPVs by c$4-7/boe, re-attracting a vast wave of capital and … Continue reading "Shale growth: what if the Permian went CO2-neutral?"
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CO2 intensity of shale: breakdown by category?

This model disaggregates the CO2 emissions of producing shale oil, across 14 different contributors: such as materials, drilling, fracturing, supply chain, lifting, processing, methane leaks and flaring. CO2 intensity can be flexed by changing the input assumptions. Our 'idealized shale' scenario follows in a separate tab, showing how Permian shale production could become 'carbon neutral'.
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Screen of companies detecting methane leaks?

This data-file screens the methods available to monitor for methane emissions. Notes and metrics are tabulated. Emerging methods, such as drones and trucks are also scored, based on technical trials. The best drones can now detect almost all methane leaks >90% faster than traditional methods. c34 companies at the cutting edge are screened.
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US E&Ps turn to ESG?

Of the largest 15 shale E&Ps, the proportion with ESG slides in their quarterly presentations has exploded by 4.5x in the trailing twelve months, from 13% in 3Q18 to 60% in 3Q19. The progress is tracked in this short data-file.
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CO2 Intensity of Oilfield Supply Chains

What is more CO2-intensive: the c4,000 truck trips needed to complete a shale well, or giant offshore service vessels (OSVs), which each consume >100bpd of fuel? This data-file quantifies the CO2 intensity of supply-chains, for 10 different resource types, as a function of 30 input variables.
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Permian CO2 Emissions by Producer

This data-file tabulates Permian CO2 intensity, based on regulatory disclosures from 20 of the leading producers to the EPA. The data are disaggregated by company, across 18 different categories, such as combustion, flaring, venting, pneumatics, storage tanks and methane leaks. There are opportunities to lower emissions.
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Oil industry CO2 per barrel?

We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of an oil resource, as a function of its flaring, methane leakage, gravity, sulphur content, production processes and transportation to market. A c10x energy return on energy investment is estimated. Relative advantages are seen for well-managed resources offshore and in shale; relative disadvantages are seen for heavy crudes, as well as poorly managed gas.
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US Shale: No Country for Old Completion Designs

2019 has evoked resource fears in shale, after some E&Ps posted disappointing results, and implied productivity data fell 20% YoY,  according to the EIA’s data. We find the data-issues are benign. They reflect changes to completion design, as a bottlenecked industry increased its use of cube development and flowback control. Underlying productivity continues improving at … Continue reading "US Shale: No Country for Old Completion Designs"
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US Shale Gas to Liquids?

Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 11% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian.
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The cutting edge of shale technology?

This data-file reviews 950 technical papers from the shale industry in 2018-2020, to identify the cutting edge of shale technology. The trends show an incredible uptick in completion design, frac fluids, EOR and machine learning. Each paper is summarized and categorized. The file also shows which companies and services have a technology edge.
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CO2-EOR in Shale: the economics

We model the economics for CO2-EOR in shales, after interest in this topic spiked 2.3x YoY in the 2019 technical literature. We see 15% IRRs in our base case, creating $1.6M of incremental value per well, uplifting type curves by 1.75x. Greater upside is readily possible. Most exciting is the prospect for Permian EOR to become the "lowest CO2 oil" in the market.
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Permian Pipeline Bottlenecks?

This data-file tracks 50 oil and gas pipelines in the Permian basin -- their route, their capacity and their construction progress -- in order to assess the severity of pipeline bottlenecks. Oil bottlenecks are moderate, but will ease into 2020. Gas bottlenecks are more severe and remain so.
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Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?

In 2019, the virtues of switching diesel-powered frac fleets to gas-powered electric have been extolled by companies such as EOG, Shell, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Evolution and US Well Services. The chief benefit is a material cost saving, quantified per well in this data-model, as a function of the frac fleet size, its upgrade costs, its … Continue reading "Dreaming of Electric Frac Fleets?"
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Shale: Upgrade to Fiber?

This note focuses on the most exciting new data methodology we have seen across the entire shale space: distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) using fiber-optic cables. It has now reached critical mass.
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Leading Companies in DAS?

This data-file quantifies the leading companies in Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), the game-changing technology for enhancing shale and conventional oil industry productivity. Operators are screened from their patents and technical papers. Services are screened based on their size and their technology.
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DAS. At the cutting edge in shale?

This data-file summarises 25 of the most recent technical papers around the industry, using fiber-optic cables for Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). The technology is now hitting critical mass to spur shale productivity upwards.
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China’s Shale Challenge?

This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our "top ten conclusions" on Chinese shale.
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Shale Productivity: Our “Top 50” Improvements

Critics still downplay shale productivity. This simple data-file compiles fifty examples of genuine improvements across the industry since 2015. A "one line" summary is provided for each one.
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Natural Gas Research

Global gas: is there enough gas for energy transition?

Our roadmap to 'Net Zero' requires doubling global gas production from 400bcfd to 700bcfd, as a complement to wind, solar, nuclear and other low-carbon energy. Reserve replacement must exceed 100% and the global RP ratio halves to 25-years. What do you have to believe?
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Gas turbines: what outlook in energy transition?

Gas turbines should be considered a key workhorse for a cleaner and more efficient global energy system. Installations will double to 100GW pa in 2024-30, and reach 140GW in 2030, surpassing their prior peak from 2003. This 16-page report outlines four key drivers in our outlook for gas turbines, and their implications.
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Global gas turbines by region and over time?

Global gas turbine additions averaged 50 GW pa over the decade from 2015-2024, of which the US was 20%, Europe was 10%, Asia was 50%, LatAm was 10% and Africa was 10%. Yet global gas turbine additions could double to 100 GW pa in 2025-30. This data-file estimates global gas turbine capacity by region and over time.
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US natural gas: the stuff of dreams?

Modeling US gas supply and demand can be nightmarishly complex. Yet we have evaluated both, through 2035. This 13-page report outlines the largest drivers of demand, requires a +3% pa CAGR from the key US shale gas basins, and argues the balance of probability lies to the upside.
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Seeing sense: digitize the downstream gas network?

Greater digitization of gas networks looks increasingly important, as gas, biogas, hydrogen and CCS all aim to shore up their futures. This 15-page note started as a deep-dive into the true leakage rates in downstream gas; and ended up finding opportunities in sensors and pipeline monitoring.
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Gas distribution: loss rates, leakage, unaccounted gas?

1-4% of all the gas that flows into downstream gas distribution networks may fail to be metered and monetized. Stated leakage rates are usually around 0.5%, but could be higher. This data-file aggregates data from Eurostat and the UK's Joint Office of Gas Transporters.
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Global heat pump sales by country?

Global heat pump sales by country are tabulated in this data-file, for 14 countries/regions. Developed world heat pump sales rose at an 11% CAGR over the decade since 2012, reaching 7M units sold in 2022, but then unexpectedly fell by -10% in 2023, including YoY declines in 7 out of the 14 countries we are tracking.
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Global CCS Projects Database

Over 400 CCS projects are tracked in our global CCS projects database. The average project is 2MTpa in size, with capex of $600/Tpa, underpinning over 400MTpa of risked global CCS by 2035, up 10x from 2019 levels. The largest CO2 sources are hubs, gas processing, blue hydrogen, gas power and coal power. The most active countries are the US, UK, Canada and Europe.
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US gas pipeline capex over time?

US gas pipeline capex ran at $12bn pa in 2023, but likely needs to treble to reach net zero by 2050, mainly to support 1GTpa of CCS. Midstream capex for natural gas, CO2 transportation and hydrogen production are forecast out to 2050 in this data-file. Numbers can be stress-tested in the model.
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Gas peaker plants: the economics?

Gas peaker plants run at low utilizations of 2-20%, during times of peak demand in power grids. A typical peaker costing $950/kW and running at 10% utilization has a levelized cost of electricity around 20c/kWh, to generate a 10% IRR with 0.5 kg/kWh of CO2 intensity. This data-file shows the economic sensitivities to volatility and utilization.
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Back up: does ramping renewables displace gas?

This 12-page note studies the output from 10 of the largest gas power plants in Australia, at 5-minute intervals, comparing 2024 versus 2014. Ramping renewables to c30% of Australia’s electricity mix has not only entrenched gas-fired back-up generation, but actually increased the need for peakers?
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Mainspring Energy: linear generator breakthrough?

Linear generator technology can convert any gaseous fuel into electricity, with c45% electrical efficiency, and >80% efficiency in CHP mode. This data-file reviews Mainspring Energy's patents. We conclude that the company has locked up the IP for piston-seal assemblies in a linear generator with air bearings, but longevity/maintenance could be a key challenge to explore.
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Gas power: does low utilization entail spare capacity?

The US has >400GW of large gas-fired power plants running at 40% average annual utilization. Could they help power new loads, e.g., 60GW of AI data-centers by 2030? This 5-page note shows why low utilization does not entail spare capacity, and in turn, estimates the true spare capacity for loads such as data-centers.
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Global biogas production by country?

Global biogas production has risen at a 10-year CAGR of 3% to reach 4.3bcfed in 2023, equivalent to 1.1% of global gas consumption. Europe accounts for half of global biogas, helped by $4-40/mcfe subsidies. This data-file aggregates global biogas production by country, plus notes into feedstock sources, uses of biogas and biomethane.
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US gas transmission: by company and by pipeline?

This data-file aggregates granular data into US gas transmission, by company and by pipeline, for 40 major US gas pipelines which transport 45TCF of gas per annum across 185,000 miles; and for 3,200 compressors at 640 related compressor stations.
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Peak commodities: everything, everywhere, all at once?

This 15-page note evaluates 10 commodity disruptions since the Stone Age. Peak demand for commodities is just possible, in total tonnage terms, as part of the energy transition. But it is historically unprecedented. And our plateau in tonnage terms is a doubling in value terms, a kingmaker for gas, plastics and materials. Outlooks for 30 major commodities are reviewed.
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Renewable-heavy grids: dividing the pie?

The levelized cost of partial electricity (LCOPE) is very different from the levelized cost of total electricity (LCOTE). This 21-page note explores the distinction. It suggests renewables will peak at 30-60% of power grids? And gas is well-placed as a back-up, set to surprise, by entrenching at 30-50% of renewables-heavy grids?
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Density of gases: by pressure and temperature?

The density of gases matters in turbines, compressors, for energy transport and energy storage. Hence this data-file models the density of gases from first principles, using the Ideal Gas Equations and the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation. High energy density is shown for methane, less so for hydrogen and ammonia. CO2, nitrogen, argon and water are also captured.
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Gas dehydration: costs and economics?

Gas dehydration costs might run to $0.02/mcf, with an energy penalty of 0.03%, to remove around 90% of the water from a wellhead gas stream using a TEG absorption unit, and satisfy downstream requirements for 4-7lb/mmcf maximum water content. This data-file captures the economics of gas dehydration, to earn a 10% IRR off $25,000/mmcfd capex.
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Gas fractionation: NGL economics?

Gas fractionation separates out methane from NGLs such as ethane, propane and butane. A full separation uses up almost 1% of the input gas energy and 4% of the NGL energy. The costs of gas fractionation require a gas processing spread of $0.7/mcf for a 10% IRR off $2/mcf input gas, or in turn, an average NGL sales price of $350/ton. Costs of gas fractionation vary and can be stress tested in this model.
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European gas and power model: natural gas supply-demand?

European gas and power markets will look better-supplied than they truly are in 2023-24. A dozen key input variables can be stress-tested in the data-file. Overall, we think Europe will need to source over 15bcfd of LNG through 2030, especially US LNG.
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Biogas: the economics?

Biogas costs are broken down in this economic model, generating a 10% IRR off $180M/kboed capex, via a mixture of $16/mcfe gas sales, $60/ton waste disposal fees and $50/ton CO2 prices. High gas prices and landfill taxes can make biogas economical in select geographies. Although diseconomies of scale reward smaller projects?
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Development capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the five 'Big Oil' Super-Majors' development capex from the mid-1990s, in headline terms (billions of dollars) and in per-barrel terms ($/boe of production). Real development spending quadrupled from $6/boe in 1995-2000 to $24/boe in 2010-15, and has since collapsed to $10/boe. So one cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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Air quality: sulphur, NOx and particulate emissions?

The flue gas of a typical combustion facility contains c7% CO2, 60ppm of NOx, 40ppm of SOx and 2ppm of particulate dusts. This is our conclusion from tabulating data across 75 large combustion facilities, mainly power generation facilities in Europe. However, the range is broad. As a rule of thumb, gas is cleanest, biomass and coal are worse, while some diesel-fired units are associated with the lowest air quality in our sample.
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Gas turbines: operating parameters?

A typical simple-cycle gas turbine is sized at 200MW, and achieves 38% efficiency, as super-heated gases at 1,250ºC temperature and 100-bar pressure expand and drive a turbine. Efficiency rises to 58% in a combined cycle. The purpose of this data-file is to tabulate typical operating parameters of gas turbines.
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NET Power: gas-fired power with inherent CO2 capture?

Our NET Power technology review shows over ten years of progress, refining the design of efficient power generation cycles using CO2 as the working fluid. The patents show a moat around several aspects of the technology. And six challenges at varying stages of de-risking.
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Methane slip: how much gas evades combustion?

Methane slip occurs when a small portion of natural gas fails to combust, and instead escapes into the atmosphere. This data-file reviews different technical papers. Methane slip is effectively nil at gas turbines and gas heating (less than 0.1%). It rises to 0.5-3% in cookstoves and some dual-fuel marine engines. However, the highest rate of methane slip occurs in flaring.
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Decarbonized gas: ship LNG out, take CO2 back?

This note explores an option to decarbonize global LNG: (i) capture the CO2 from combusting natural gas (ii) liquefy it, including heat exchange with the LNG regas stream, then (iii) then send the liquid CO2 back for disposal in the return journey of the LNG tanker. There are some logistical headaches, but no technical show-stoppers. Abatement cost is c$100/ton.
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Exploration capex: long-term spending from Oil Majors?

This data-file tabulates the Oil Majors' exploration capex from the mid-1990s, in billions of dollars ($bn pa) and in per-barrel terms (in $/boe). Exploration spending quadrupled from $1/boe in 1995-2005 to $4/boe in 2005-19, and has since collapsed like a warm Easter Egg. One cannot help wondering about another cycle?
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CH4 context: the largest methane leaks of all time?

Global methane emissions run to 360MTpa. 40% is agriculture, 40% is the energy industry and 20% is landfills. Within energy, over 30% of the leaks are from coal, 30% are from oil, 27% are from gas. This short note quantifies some of the largest methane leaks of all time, and provides context for the recent Nord Stream disaster.
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Global gas: five predictions through 2030?

Modelling Europe’s gas balances currently feels like grasping at straws. Yet this 10-page note makes five predictions through 2030. We have revised our views on how fast new energies ramp, which gas gets displaced first, which energy sources are no longer ‘in the firing line’, and gas pricing.
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Scope 4 emissions: avoided CO2 has value?

Scope 4 CO2 reflects the CO2 avoided by an activity. This 11-page note argues the metric warrants more attention. It yields an ‘all of the above’ approach to energy transition, shows where each investment dollar achieves most decarbonization and maximizes the impact of renewables.
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CO2 intensity: Scope 1, 2 & 3 and Scope 4 emissions?

Scope 4 CO2 emissions capture the CO2 that is avoided by use of a product. Many energy investments with positive Scope 1-3 emissions have deeply negative Scope 1-4 emissions. Numbers are quantified and may offer a more constructive approach to decarbonization investments.
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US decarbonization: energy and CO2 emissions?

The US consumes 25,000 TWH of primary energy per year, which equates to 13,000 TWH of useful energy, and emits 6GTpa of CO2. This model captures our best estimates for what a pragmatic and economical decarbonization of the US will look like, reaching net zero in 2050, with forecasts for wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, oil, gas and coal consumption.
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Gas diffusion: how will record prices resolve?

Dispersion in global gas prices has hit new highs in 2022. Hence this 17-page note evaluates two possible solutions. Building more LNG plants achieves 15-20% IRRs. But shuttering some of Europe’s gas-consuming industry then re-locating it in gas-rich countries can achieve 20-40% IRRs, lower net CO2 and lower risk? Both solutions should step up. What implications?
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Global gas prices: by country?

Global gas prices by country are often measured at the world-famous delivery points for liquids futures contracts, such as Henry Hub and the Netherlands' TTF. This data-file takes a broader approach, aggregating the annual gas prices by country across twenty geographies.
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UK HPHT gas fields: marginal cost?

Marginal costs of a HPHT project in the UK North Sea are captured via modeling Shell's 40kboed Jackdaw project, FID'ed in 2022. A $7/mcf marginal cost results mostly from high hurdle rates associated with project complexity. CO2 intensity has been lowered to c14kg/boe, we think.
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North Field: sharing the weight of the world?

The North Field is now the most important conventional energy asset on the planet. It produces 4% of world energy, 20% of global LNG and aims to ramp another 50MTpa of low-carbon LNG by 2028. But what if Qatar’s exceptional reliability gets disrupted by unforeseen conflict with Iran?
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Qatar’s North Field: production and productivity?

We have aggregated production data from the largest gas fied in the world: Qatar's North Field, aka Iran's South Pars field, with 1,260 TCF reserves. Output is running at 43bcfd in 2022, more than doubling in the past decade, which is possibly impacting future well productivity.
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World’s largest energy assets: by category and risk?

The largest hydrocarbon mega-projects are still 10-25x larger than the world's largest solar and offshore wind projects. Risks are different in each category. But on a risked basis, global energy supplies may come in c2% lower than base case forecasts
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LNG Research

LNG: top conclusions in the energy transition?

Thunder Said Energy is a research firm focused on economic opportunities that drive the energy transition. Our top ten conclusions into LNG are summarized below, looking across all of our research.
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Global gas: is there enough gas for energy transition?

Our roadmap to 'Net Zero' requires doubling global gas production from 400bcfd to 700bcfd, as a complement to wind, solar, nuclear and other low-carbon energy. Reserve replacement must exceed 100% and the global RP ratio halves to 25-years. What do you have to believe?
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LNG trucks: Asian equation?

LNG trucking is more expensive than diesel trucking in the developed world. But Asian trucking markets are different, especially China, where exponentially accelerating LNG trucks will displace 150kbpd of oil demand in 2024. This 8-page note explores the costs of LNG trucking and sees 45MTpa of LNG displacing 1Mbpd of diesel?
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Energy trading: value in volatility?

Could renewables increase hydrocarbon realizations? Or possibly even double the value in flexible LNG portfolios? Our reasoning in this 14-page report includes rising regional arbitrages, and growing volatility amidst lognormal price distributions (i.e., prices deviate more to the upside than the downside). What implications and who benefits?
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European gas and power model: natural gas supply-demand?

European gas and power markets will look better-supplied than they truly are in 2023-24. A dozen key input variables can be stress-tested in the data-file. Overall, we think Europe will need to source over 15bcfd of LNG through 2030, especially US LNG.
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Liquefied CO2 carriers: CO2 shipping costs?

This model captures the economics of a CO2 carrier, i.e., a large marine vessel, carrying liquefied CO2, at -50ºC temperature and 6-10 bar pressure, for CCS. A good rule of thumb is seaborne CO2 shipping costs are $8/ton/1,000-miles. Shipping rates of $100k/day yield a 10% IRR on a c$150M tanker.
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Decarbonized gas: ship LNG out, take CO2 back?

This note explores an option to decarbonize global LNG: (i) capture the CO2 from combusting natural gas (ii) liquefy it, including heat exchange with the LNG regas stream, then (iii) then send the liquid CO2 back for disposal in the return journey of the LNG tanker. There are some logistical headaches, but no technical show-stoppers. Abatement cost is c$100/ton.
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LNG shipping: company screen?

This data-file is a screen of LNG shipping companies, quantifying who has the largest fleet of LNG carriers and the cleanest fleet of LNG carriers (i.e., low CO2 intensity). Many private companies are increasingly backed by private equity. Many public companies have dividend yields of 4-9%.
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Energy transition: top commodities?

This data-file summarizes our latest thesis on ten commodities with upside in the energy transition. The average one will see demand rise by 3x and price/cost appreciate or re-inflate by 100%. The data-file contains a 6-10 line summary of our work into each commodity.
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Global gas: five predictions through 2030?

Modelling Europe’s gas balances currently feels like grasping at straws. Yet this 10-page note makes five predictions through 2030. We have revised our views on how fast new energies ramp, which gas gets displaced first, which energy sources are no longer ‘in the firing line’, and gas pricing.
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Gas diffusion: how will record prices resolve?

Dispersion in global gas prices has hit new highs in 2022. Hence this 17-page note evaluates two possible solutions. Building more LNG plants achieves 15-20% IRRs. But shuttering some of Europe’s gas-consuming industry then re-locating it in gas-rich countries can achieve 20-40% IRRs, lower net CO2 and lower risk? Both solutions should step up. What implications?
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North Field: sharing the weight of the world?

The North Field is now the most important conventional energy asset on the planet. It produces 4% of world energy, 20% of global LNG and aims to ramp another 50MTpa of low-carbon LNG by 2028. But what if Qatar’s exceptional reliability gets disrupted by unforeseen conflict with Iran?
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Qatar’s North Field: production and productivity?

We have aggregated production data from the largest gas fied in the world: Qatar's North Field, aka Iran's South Pars field, with 1,260 TCF reserves. Output is running at 43bcfd in 2022, more than doubling in the past decade, which is possibly impacting future well productivity.
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Energy security: the return of long-term contracts?

Spot markets have delivered more and more ‘commodities on demand’. But is this model fit for energy transition? Many markets are now short, causing explosive price rises. Sufficient volumes may still not be available at any price. This note considers a renaissance for long-term contracts.
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Global LNG: offtake contracts and spot market development?

This database of global LNG contracts tabulates the details for 450 LNG offtake contracts, tracking buyers, sellers, facilities, contract durations and destination flexibility. The total market has grown by 3x in the past 20-years to 400MTpa in 2023, while the spot and short-term market has increased by 10x to 150MTpa.
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Japan: nuclear restart tracker?

This data-file on  looks through 17 major nuclear plants in Japan with 45GW of operable capacity, covering the key parameters and re-start news on each facility. Japan's nuclear restart had ramped output back to 78TWH pa by 2023, and may rise by a further 100 TWH by 2030, to meet targets for 20% nuclear in the country's generation mix.
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US LNG: new perceptions?

Perceptions in the energy transition are likely to change in 2022, amidst energy shortages, inflation and geopolitical discord. The biggest change will be a re-prioritization of US LNG. At $7.5/mcf, there is 200MTpa of upside by 2030, which could also abate 1GTpa of CO2. This 15 page note outlines our conclusions. 
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LNG regasification: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics for a typical LNG regas facility. We estimate that a fixed plant with 75-80% utilization requires a spread near to $0.5-0.8/mcf on its gas imports, in order to earn a 5-10% IRR. But there is asymmetric upside amidst gas shortages.
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Global LNG supply model: by project and by country?

Global LNG output ran at 400MTpa in 2023. This model estimates global LNG production by facility across 140 LNG facilities. Our latest forecasts are that global LNG demand will rise at an 8% CAGR, to reach 670MTpa by 2030, for an absolute growth rate of +40MTpa per year, but the growth is back-end loaded.
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LNG transport: shipping economics?

This data-file breaks down the cost of shipping cryogenic cargoes in seaborne tankers. LNG costs $1-3/mcf. The most important input variable is transport distance. Although switching to e-fuels (green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) can double total cost.
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LNG in the energy transition: rewriting history?

A vast new up-cycle for LNG is in the offing, to meet energy transition goals, by displacing coal. 2024-25 LNG markets could by 100MTpa under-supplied, taking prices above $9/mcf. But emerging technologies are re-shaping the industry, so well-run greenfields may resist the cost over-runs that marred the last cycle.
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LNG liquefaction: what challenges and opportunities?

This data-file reviews 40 recent LNG patents, to draw conclusions and identify leading companies. Lowering capex costs matters, but should not be done at the expense of higher opex or emissions. The next generation of modular plants offer a step-change improvement. And new process technologies are also coming through.
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LNG liquefaction: the economics?

This model captures the economics for a typical LNG liquefaction project, breaking down IRRs and NPVs as a function of key input-variables. In our base case, a new LNG project costing $750/Tpa must charge a $3.6/mcf liquefaction spred for a 10% IRR.
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LNG plant footprints: compaction costs?

This data file tabulates the acreage footprints of c20 recent LNG projects. FLNG is 20x more compact than a comparable onshore plant, which may elevate costs. To benefit from compactness, we see more potential in novel "liquefaction" technologies.
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Heavy truck costs: diesel, gas, electric or hydrogen?

Heavy truck costs are estimated at $0.14 per ton-kilometer, for a truck typically carrying 15 tons of load and traversing over 150,000 miles per annum. Today these trucks consume 10Mbpd of diesel and their costs absorb 4% of post-tax incomes. Electric trucks would be 20-50% most costly, and hydrogen trucks would be 45-75% more, which is inflationary.
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Net zero Oil Majors: four cardinal virtues?

Attaining ‘Net Zero’ can uplift an Energy Major’s valuation by c50%. This means emitting no net CO2, either from the company’s operations or from the use of its products. This 19-page report shows how a Major can best achieve ‘net zero’ by exhibiting four cardinal virtues. Decarbonization is not a threat but an opportunity.
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LNG: deep disruptions?

The last oil industry crisis, in 2014-16, slowed down LNG project progress, setting the stage for 20-60MTpa of under-supply in 2021-23. The current COVID-crisis could cause a further 15-45MTpa of supply-disruptions, after looking line-by-line through our database of 120 projects. The result is a potential 100MTpa shortfall in 2024-26. This is negative for energy transition, … Continue reading "LNG: deep disruptions?"
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Shell: the future of LNG plants?

Shell is revolutionizing LNG project design, based on reviewing 40 of the company’s gas-focused patents from 2019. The innovations can lower LNG facilities’ capex by 70% and opex by 50%; conferring a $4bn NPV and 4% IRR advantage over industry standard greenfields. Smaller-scale LNG, modular LNG and highly digitized facilities are particularly abetted. This note … Continue reading "Shell: the future of LNG plants?"
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Global Flaring Intensity by Country

This data-file tabulates global flaring intensity in 16 countries: in absolute terms (bcm per year), per barrel of oil production (mcf/bbl) and as a contribution to CO2 emissions (kg/boe). 2021 saw 144bcm of global flaring, averaging 0.2 mcf/bbl and 10 kg/boe of direct emissions. Lower decile countries flared 0.7 mcf/bbl, which is over 40 kg/boe.
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The Ascent of Small Scale LNG?

Large LNG projects make large headlines. But we are excited by the ascent of small-scale LNG facilities. At less than 1MTpa each, these facilities can be harder to track, which is the objective of this data-file. We find small LNG liquefaction capacity is set to double, to 25MTpa. Liquefaction facilities for shipping will rise 8x to 4MTpa by 2021. By 2022, Europe will have 5x more small-scale facilities than a decade prior.
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CO2 intensity of natural gas value chains?

We have constructed a simple model to estimate full-cycle CO2 emissions of a gas resource, as a function of its production efficiency, contaminants (CO2 and H2S), and commercialisation (LNG or pipelines) . Compared with the life-cycle emissions of oil, CO2 per boe is seen to be c0-20% lower for LNG and c50-75% lower for piped gas. Leading resource types are shown in the data-file.
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Long-Term LNG Demand: technology-led?

This is a simple model of long-term LNG demand, extrapolating out sensible estimates for the world's leading LNG-consumers. On top of this, we overlay the upside from two nascent technology areas, which could add 200MTpa of potential upside to the market. Backup workings are included.
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US Shale Gas to Liquids?

Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 11% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian.
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Greenfield LNG: Does Exxon have an edge?

For large-scale capital projects in a commodity industry, harnessing better technologies tends to unlock better returns. Hence this 7-page note evaluates ExxonMobil’s technology for constructing greenfield LNG plants, particularly in remote geographies. Its technical leadership stands out from our analysis of 3,000 patents across the industry. This matters as Exxon progresses new LNG investments in … Continue reading "Greenfield LNG: Does Exxon have an edge?"
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China’s Shale Challenge?

This data-file quantifies the most-discussed challenges for developing Chinese shale gas, after a review of the technical literature, as well as the solutions suggested to combat them, and our "top ten conclusions" on Chinese shale.
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The World’s Great Gas Fields and Their CO2

This data-file tabulates 30 major gas resources around the world, their volumes, their CO2 content and how the CO2 is handled. This matters because higher CO2 gas fields are more costly to develop into LNG, while CO2 venting is no longer acceptable without CCS. Permian & Marcellus LNG are best positioned.
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Small-Scale LNG liquefaction Costs: New Opportunities?

Small-scale LNG technologies can be economic at $10/mcf, generating 15% pre-tax IRRs, off $3/mcf input gas. This data-file tabulates the line-by-line costs of typical small-scale LNG technologies (SMRs, N2 expansion). Against this baseline, we model a more cutting-edge technology, which preserves strong economics at c25x smaller scale.
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LNG in transport: scaling up by scaling down?

Next-generation technology in small-scale LNG has potential to reshape the global shipping-fuels industry. Especially after IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, LNG should compete with diesel. This note outlines the technologies, economics and opportunities for LNG as a transport fuel.
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How do LNG costs vary with plant size?

This data-file tabulates a dozen data-points on LNG plant opex, from company disclosures, the technical literature and academic papers. Opex is a function of plant size, and tends to fall by $0.3/mcf for each 10x change in plant capacity.
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LNG as a Shipping Fuel: the Economics

This data-file provides line-by-line cost estimates for LNG as a shipping fuel, for trucked LNG, small-scale LNG and bunkered LNG. After IMO 2020 regulations buoy diesel pricing, it should be economical to fuel newbuild ships with small-scale LNG; and in the US it should be economical to convert pre-existing ships to LNG. 
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Downstream Research

Storage tank costs: storing oil, energy, water and chemicals?

Storage tank costs are tabulated in this data-file, averaging $100-300/m3 for storage systems of 10-10,000 m3 capacity. Costs are 2-10x higher for corrosive chemicals, cryogenic storage, or very large/small storage facilities. Some rules of thumb are outlined below with underlying data available in the Excel.
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Crude to chemicals: there will be naphtha?

Oil markets are transitioning, with electric vehicles displacing 20Mbpd of gasoline by 2050, while petrochemical demand rises by almost 10Mbpd. So it is often said oil refiners should 'become chemicals companies'. It depends. This 18-page report charts petrochemical pathways and sees greater opportunity in chemicals that can absorb surplus BTX.
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Global oil demand forecasts: by end use, by product, by region?

This model forecasts long-run oil demand to 2050, by end use, by year, and by region; across the US, the OECD and the non-OECD. We see demand gently rising through the 2020s, peaking at 105Mbpd in 2026-28, then gently falling to 85Mbpd by 2050 in the energy transition.
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US Refinery Database: CO2 intensity by facility?

This US refinery database covers 125 US refining facilities, with an average capacity of 150kbpd, and an average CO2 intensity of 33 kg/bbl. Upper quartile performers emitted less than 20 kg/bbl, while lower quartile performers emitted over 40 kg/bbl. The goal of this refinery database is to disaggregate US refining CO2 intensity by company and by facility.
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Scope 4 emissions: avoided CO2 has value?

Scope 4 CO2 reflects the CO2 avoided by an activity. This 11-page note argues the metric warrants more attention. It yields an ‘all of the above’ approach to energy transition, shows where each investment dollar achieves most decarbonization and maximizes the impact of renewables.
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Electric vehicles: chargers of the light brigade?

This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Fuel retail: economics of a petrol station?

This data-file captures the economics for a fuel-retailing "petrol station" to earn a 10% IRR. A typical EBIT margin is 17c/gallon; with a c6% margin on direct fuel sales; plus 10-20% of revenues from convenience retail at a higher, c25-30% margin.
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Hydroprocessing: the economics?

This model requires a $7.5/bbl upgrade spread to earn a 10% IRR across a new hydrocracking or hydrotreating unit. CO2 emissions are around 25kg/bbl. Green hydrogen could be used for decarbonization, but it would require 3x higher upgrading spreads to remain economical.
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Methanol production: the economics?

This model captures the economics and CO2 intensity of methanol production in different chemical pathways. We find exciting potential for bio-methanol and blue methanol. These are logistically simple substitutes for oil products, but with lower carbon content. Full cost breakdowns can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Methanol: leading companies?

This data-file tabulates details of companies in the methanol value chain. For incumbents, we have quantified market shares. For technology providers, we have simply tabulated the numbers of patents filed. For newer, lower-carbon methanol producers, we have compiled a screen to assess leading options.
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Low-carbon refining: insane in the membrane?

1% of global CO2 comes from distilling crude oil at refineries. An alternative uses precisely engineered polymer membranes to separate crude fractions, eliminating 50-80% of the costs and 97% of the CO2. We reviewed 1,000 patents, including a major breakthrough in 2020. This 14-page note presents the opportunity.
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Refinery membranes: where’s the IP?

This data-file reviews over 1,000 patents to identify the technology leaders aiming to use membranes instead of other separation processes (e.g.,  distillation) within refineries. Operational data are also presented for an ExxonMobil breakthrough and Air Products's hydrogen recovery technology.
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Pipeline costs: moving oil, products or other liquids?

Pipeline costs are modeled in this data-file. $1/bbl is needed to move oil, oil products and other liquid commodities around 500 km at Mbpd scale, and the energy requirements are around 2.1 kWh/bbl, emitting 0.8 kg/bbl of CO2. Economics of scale matter. As a rule of thumb, costs rise by 100% when volumes fall by 50%.
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Waste heat recovery: heat exchanger costs?

Industrial heat comprises around 20% of global CO2 emissions, but around half of all heat generated may ultimately be wasted. Hence, this model simplifies the economics of using a heat exchanger to recover waste heat. A CO2 price above $50/ton would greatly accelerate waste heat recovery projects.
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Renewable diesel: the economics?

Our base case is that a US renewable diesel facility must achieve $4.6/gallon sales revenues (which is c$200/bbl) as it commercializes a product with up to 75% lower embedded emissions than conventional diesel. Similarly, a bio-diesel facility must achieve $3.6/gallon sales on a product with 60% lower embedded emissions.
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Can carbon-neutral fuels re-shape the oil industry?

Fuel retailers have a game-changing opportunity seeding new forests. They could offset c15bn tons of CO2 per annum, enough to accommodate 85Mbpd of oil and 400TCF of annual gas use in a fully decarbonized energy system. The cost is competitive, well below c$50/ton. It is natural to sell carbon credits alongside fuels and earn a … Continue reading "Can carbon-neutral fuels re-shape the oil industry?"
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Biomass to biofuel, or biomass for burial?

Greater decarbonization at a lower cost is achievable by burying biomass (such as corn or sugarcane) rather than converting it into bio-ethanol. This model captures the economics. Detailed costs and CO2 comparisons are shown under different iterations. 
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Should fuel retail stations sell carbon credits: the economics?

A fuel-retail station can uplift its FCF and valuation by c15-25% by offering CO2-offsets at the point of sale, alongside selling fuel. Gross profits from selling $50/ton carbon credits may be around 3x the typical EBIT margins of retail stations, hence we explore a particular sales model that can double fuel retail NPVs.
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Carbon Offsets vs Renewable Diesel?

Could the rise of reforestation initiatives erode the value of renewable diesel? This data-file calculates purchasing CO2-credits to decarbonise diesel could cost 60-90% less than purchasing renewable diesel, at current pricing. Economically justified premia for biofuels are calculated.
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Decarbonise Downstream?

Refining has the highest carbon footprint in global energy. To improve, we find better catalysts are needed. Uniquely, they could cut CO2 by 15-30%, while also uplifting margins. Catalyst science is under-going a digitally driven transformation. This 25-page note identifies the leaders.
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Carbon Costs of IMO 2020?

CO2 intensity of oil refineries could rise by 20% due to IMO 2020 sulphur regulations, if all high-sulphur fuel oil is upgraded into low-sulphur diesel, we estimate. The drivers are an extra stage of cracking, plus higher-temperature hydrotreating, which will also increase hydrogen demands. This one change could undo 30-years of efficiency gains.
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Upgrading Catalysts: lower refinery temperatures and pressures?

Refineries are CO2-intensive, as their average process takes place at 450C. But improved catalysts can help, based on reviewing over 50 patents from leading energy Majors, and their requisite temperatures and pressures. Combining all the best-in-class new catalysts, we think the average refinery could save 5kg/bbl of CO2 intensity.
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US Refining: energy and CO2 intensity

Emissions of refining a barrel of crude in the US has fallen at a 0.5% CAGR over the past c30-years, from 36kg/boe in 1986 to 31kg/boe in 2018. US refineries are also increasingly fueled by natural gas and merchant steam, while own use of oil, coal and oil products have been phased out.
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Carbon Capture Costs at Refineries?

Refineries emit 1bn tons pa of CO2, or around 30kg per bbl of throughputs. Hence this model tests the relative costs of retro-fitting carbon capture and storage (CCS), to test the economic impacts. c10-20% of emissions will be lowest-cost to capture. The middle c50% will cost c3x more. But the final 25% could cost up to 5x more. These numbers are compared against typical refining margins.
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Overview of Downstream Catalyst Companies

This data-file tabulates headline details of c35 companies commercialising catalysts for the refining industry, in order to improve conversion efficiencies and lower CO2 emissions. Five early-stage private companies stand out, while we also profile which Majors have recently filed the most patents to improve downstream catalysis.
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Global CO2 emissions breakdown?

Global CO2 emissions rose from 32GTpa of CO2-equivalents in 1990 to 54GTpa in 2024, and are seen optimistically declining to 30GTpa by 2050, on a gross basis. This global CO2 emisisons breakdown covers 33 sources that each explain over 0.5% of global CO2e emissions, as a way of tracking emissions by source, by year, and our projections in the energy transition.
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Distribution Costs: Ships, Trucks, Trains and Delivery Vans?

Distributing goods to the typical US consumer costs 1.5bbls of fuel, 600kg of CO2 and $1,000 per annum. The costs will increase 20-40% in the next decade, as the share of online retail doubles to c20%, hence new technologies are needed in last-mile delivery. This data-file provides a full breakdown of the numbers, across container-ships, trucks, rail-freight, cars and delivery vans; allowing you to flex each variable and test your own scenarios.
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Lubricant Leaders: our top five conclusions

We present our "top five" conclusions on the lubricants industry, after reviewing 240 patents, filed by Oil Majors in 2018. We are most impressed by the intense pace of activity to improve engine efficiencies. Technology will drive margins and market shares, hence three clear market leaders are identified. The relative number of patents into Electric Vehicle Lubricants is also revealing, showing the Majors' true attitudes on electrification.
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Drones attack military fuel economy?

Swarms of drones are emerging as the most devastating military weapon of the 21st century. This was evidenced by the recent attack on Saudi oil infrastructure. But drones' impact on 0.7Mbpd of global military oil demand could be even more devastating. This data-file quantifies their fuel economy at >1,000 mpge compared to today's fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and planes that achieve
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Patent Leaders in Energy

Technology leadership is crucial in energy. But it is difficult to discern. Hence, we reviewed 3,000 patents across the 25 largest companies. This note ranks the industry’s “Top 10 technology-leaders”: in upstream, offshore, deep-water, shale, LNG, gas-marketing, downstream, chemicals, digital and renewables. In each case, we profile the leading company, its edge and the proximity … Continue reading "Patent Leaders in Energy"
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US Shale Gas to Liquids?

Shell filed 42 distinct new patents around GTL in 2018. This data-file reviews them, showing how the broad array of GTL products confers defensiveness and downstream portfolio benefits. Hence, we have modeled the economics of "replicating" Pearl GTL in Texas. Our base case is a 11% IRR taking in 1.6bcfd of stranded gas from the Permian.
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Explaining US gasoline?

Gasoline demand is stalling in summer-2019, down -0.4% YoY vs a prior 15-year trend for 0.4% pa growth. The cause is urban Vehicle Miles Driven, which has slowed 1.4pp, defying historical correlations with GDP and gasoline prices. Possible structural explanations are explored. The full data-file contains monthly data on the drivers of gasoline, going back to 2002.
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Electric cars slow the energy transition?

Electric Cars are being overtaken by new electric vehicles, which achieve c3x greater decarbonisation per unit of battery material. This is shown by comparing the relative impacts of deploying 400kg of battery materials into a single EV, versus a fleet of c120 electric scooters. It matters as battery materials are a limiting factor in the energy transition.
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Scooter Wars?

E-scooters can re-shape urban mobility, eliminating 2Mbpd of oil demand by 2030, competing amidst the ascent of “electric vehicles” and re-shaping urban economies.  These implications follow from e-scooters having 25-50x higher energy efficiencies, higher convenience and c50% lower costs than gasoline vehicles, over short 1-2 mile journeys. Our 12-page note explores the consequences.
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Offshore Capex for Technology Leaders?

The lowest-cost offshore projects are not "easy oil". They are the ones being developed with leading technologies. This data-file measures a -88% correlation coefficient between different Major's offshore patent filings in 2018 and their most recent projects' capex costs.
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Hydrogen Cars: how economic?

We model the relative economics of hydrogen cars, which are c85% costlier than US gasoline in our base case. In Europe, c20% cost-deflation could bring hydrogen cars close to competitiveness.
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Aerial Vehicles: why flying cars fly

Aerial vehicles will do in the 2020s what electric vehicles did in the 2010s. They will go from a niche technology, to a global mega-trend that no forecaster can ignore. These conclusions stem from a deep-dive analysis into the technology, the fuel economies and the costs, all of which will be transformational. This 20-page written-insight … Continue reading "Aerial Vehicles: why flying cars fly"
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A Short History of Travel Speeds

Top travel speeds have increased c100x since pre-industrial times, however in the past 20-years, the trend has reversed. Average mobility is down c6-7% since 2000. This data-file contains our notes and the data-points we have compiled on travel-times throughout history.
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Vehicles: fuel economy and energy efficiency?

We have quantified the energy efficiency of 14 different transportation technologies, using real-world data and mechanics equations. Electrification raises auto efficiency 4x, from c15-20% to c60-80%. Novel electric technologies are also unlocking unprecedented fuel economies per passenger mile.
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Our Top Technologies for IMO 2020

We review the top, proprietary technologies that we have seen from analysing patents and technical papers, to capitalise on IMO 2020 sulphur regulation, across the world's leading integrated oil companies.
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Plastics and Polymers Research

Global plastic demand: breakdown by product, region and use?

Global plastic is estimated at 470MTpa in 2022, rising to at least 800MTpa by 2050. This data-file is a breakdown of global plastic demand, by product, by region and by end use, with historical data back to 1990 and our forecasts out to 2050. Our top conclusions for plastic in the energy transition are summarized.
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Eastman: molecular recycling technology?

This patent screen reviews Eastman's molecular recycling technology. Specifically, Eastman is spending over $2bn, to construct 3 plants, with 380kTpa of capacity, to break down hard-to-recycle polyesters back into component monomers, with 20-80% lower CO2 intensity than virgin product. We find evidence for 30-years of fine-tuning, and can bridge to 10% IRRs if buyers pay sufficient premia for the recycled outputs.
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Plastic recycling: the economics?

Plastic recycling requires a $500/ton product price, to earn a 10% IRR off of c$1,000/Tpa of up-front capex, at a mechanical recycling facility with 0.3 tons/ton of CO2 intensity (up to 80-90% below virgin plastics, more than we expected). This data-file captures the economics and the costs of plastic recycling, especially for the mechanical recycling of PET.
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Plastic products: energy and CO2 intensity of plastics?

The energy intensity of plastic products and the CO2 intensity of plastics are built up from first principles in this data-file. Virgin plastic typically embeds 3-4 kg/kg of CO2e. But compared against glass, PET bottles embed 60% less energy and 80% less CO2. Compared against virgin PET, recycled PET embeds 70% less energy and 45% less CO2. Aluminium packaging is also highly efficient.
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Polyurethanes: what upside in energy transition?

Polyurethanes are elastic polymers, used for insulation, electric vehicles, electronics and apparel. This $75bn pa market expands 3x by 2050. But could energy transition double historically challenging margins, by freeing up feedstock supplies? This 13-page note builds a full mass balance for the 20+ stage polyurethane value chain and screens 20 listed companies.
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Propylene oxide: production costs?

Propylene oxide production costs average $2,000/ton ($2/kg) in order to derive a 10% IRR at a newbuild chemicals plant with $1,500/Tpa in capex. 80% of the costs are propylene and hydrogen peroxide inputs. 60-70% of this $25bn pa market is processed into polyurethanes. CO2 intensity is 2 tons of CO2 per ton of PO today, but there are pathways to absorb CO2 by reaction with PO and possibly even create carbon negative polymers.
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Naphtha cracking: costs of ethylene, propylene and aromatics?

Naphtha cracking costs $1,300/ton for high value products, such as ethylene, propylene, butadiene and BTX aromatics, to derive a 10% IRR constructing a greenfield naphtha cracker, with $1,600/Tpa capex. CO2 intensity averages 1 ton of CO2 per ton of high value products. This data-file captures the economics for naphtha cracking, a cornerstone of the modern materials industry.
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Crude to chemicals: there will be naphtha?

Oil markets are transitioning, with electric vehicles displacing 20Mbpd of gasoline by 2050, while petrochemical demand rises by almost 10Mbpd. So it is often said oil refiners should 'become chemicals companies'. It depends. This 18-page report charts petrochemical pathways and sees greater opportunity in chemicals that can absorb surplus BTX.
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Newlight AirCarbon: bioplastics breakthrough?

Newlight is converting (bio-)methane and air into polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), a type of polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), a biodegradable bioplastic which it markets as AirCarbon. The product is 'carbon negative', biodegradable, strong, 'never soggy', dishwasher safe. Our AirCarbon technology review found some good underlying innovations, but was unable to de-risk cost and capex aspirations.
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Acetylene: production costs?

Acetylene production costs are broken down in this data-file, estimated at $1,425/ton for a 10% IRR on a petrochemical facility that partially oxidizes the methane molecule. CO2 intensity is over 3 kg/kg. Up to 12MTpa of acetylene is produced globally for welding and as a petrochemical building block.
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Purified terephthalic acid: PTA production costs?

A PTA price of $800-850/ton is needed to earn a 10% IRR on a new, integrated petrochemical facility, catalytically reforming naphtha into paraxylene, then oxidizing the paraxylene into purified terephthalic acid, with upfront capex cost of $1,300/Tpa. Feedstock costs, energy prices and CO2 prices matter too.
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Polyester: production process?

Polyester is the most produced textile fiber on planet Earth. Of the world's 8GTpa of oil and gas production, 80MTpa, or 1% ends up as PET, via eleven chemical processing stages that span naphtha-reforming, BTX separation into paraxylene, oxidation to PTA, plus ethane cracking, ethylene oxide and ethylene glycol. This data file covers the polyester production process, step by step, including mass balances and reaction conditions.
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Polyurethane: leading companies?

This data-file is a screen of leading companies in polyurethane production, capturing 80% of the world's 25MTpa market, across 20 listed companies and 3 private companies. We see growing demand for polyurethanes -- especially for insulation, electric vehicles and consumer products -- while there is also an exciting prospect that EVs displace reformates from the gasoline pool, helping to deflate feedstock costs. So who benefits?
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Alterra Energy: technology review?

Alterra Energy has steadily been refining its plastic recycling technology since 2017. The company recently signed license agreements with Neste and Freepoint. The technology is a continuous reactor, with seven discrete stages, using scavengers to remove contaminants, and patented hardware to minimize fouling and devolatilize chars.
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Polyurethane: production costs?

Polyurethane production costs are estimated at $2.5-3.0/kg in our base case model, which looks line-by-line across the inputs and outputs, of a complex, twenty stage production process, which ultimately yields spandex-lycra fibers. Costs depend on oil, gas and hydrogen input prices.
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Ethylene vinyl acetate: production costs?

Ethylene vinyl acetate is produced by reacting ethylene with vinyl acetate monomer. This data-file estimates production costs, with a marginal cost between $1,500-2,000/ton, and a total embedded CO2 intensity of 3.0 tons/ton. EVA comprises 5% of the mass of a solar panel and could be an important solar bottleneck.
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Agilyx: plastic recycling breakthrough?

This data-file is a review of Agilyx's plastic recycling technology, after assessing the company's patents on our usual framework. We conclude that Agilyx has developed a novel and data-driven process, to remove challenging contaminants from feedstocks. Although it may involve higher complexity, higher reagent opex, and some challenges cannot entirely be de-risked from the patents.
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PureCycle: polypropylene recycling breakthrough?

PureCycle was founded in 2015, went public via SPAC in 2021 and aims to recycle waste polypropylene into virgin-like polypropylene saving 79% of the usual input energy and 35% of the input CO2. Despite recent controversies, our PureCycle technology review is able to de-risk several ambitions.
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Recycling: a global overview of energy savings?

1GTpa of material is recycled globally, across steel, paper, glass, plastics and other metals. On average, 35% of these materials are produced from recycled feeds, saving 70% of the energy and CO2, with upside in the Energy Transition.
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Stora Enso: next-generation packaging breakthrough?

Stora Enso is a pulp, paper and forestry products business, headquartered in Finland, with €10bn per year of revenues. It argues "everything made from fossil-based materials today can be made from a tree tomorrow". Our patent screen finds a strong focus on sustainable packaging solutions, especially Microfibrillated Cellulose (MFC). 
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Glass fiber: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of producing glass fiber, the key component in fiberglass for wind turbines; but also a light-weight insulating material. Marginal cost is likely $2,000/ton, with a CO2 intensity of 1.5 tons/ton. Some Chinese product is 50% cheaper but 2x more CO2 intensive.
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Carbon fiber: energy economics?

Carbon fiber production costs are estimated at $25/kg in this data-file, in order to generate a 10% IRR at a new world-scale carbon fiber plant. Energy economics are broken down across the value chain. The production process will likely emit 30 tons of CO2 per ton of carbon fiber if powered by a mixture of gas and electricity.
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Carbios: plastic recycling breakthrough?

Carbios has developed an enyzmatic process to recycle 90% of PET within 10-hours, which has been described in Nature. "This highly efficient, optimized enzyme outperforms all PET hydrolases reported so far". Economics and CO2 savings can be very exciting. But our work identifies four challenges, which were hard to re-risk.
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Danimer: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Danimer Scientific is a producer of PHA, a biodegradable plastic feedstock. PHA still has commercial challenges in its processing, mechanical properties and 4-5x higher costs than conventional plastics. Yet our patent review finds Danimer has made some specific, intelligible innovations, earning a solid score of 3.5 on our technology framework.
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Origin Materials: bio-plastics breakthrough?

Origin Materials went public via SPAC in February-2021, as it was acquired by Artius Acquisition Inc at a valuation of $1.8bn. Its ambition is to use wood residues to create carbon-negative plastics, cost-competitively with petroleum products. This data-file outlines our conclusions from reviewing patents.
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Polymers and higher olefins: the economics?

Our base case for producing high density polyethylene (HDPE) from ethylene requires pricing of $1,250/ton for a 10% IRR on a new greenfield plant. CO2 intensity is 0.3 kg/kg. However temperatures and pressures can vary vastly for different polymers, moving energy economics accordingly.
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Ethanol-to-ethylene: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of producing bio-ethylene by dehydration of ethanol. We estimate an ethylene price of $1,600/Tpa is required for a 10% IRR, which is almost 2x higher than a conventional ethane cracker. In a best case scenario, costs could fall below $1,000/ton.
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Next-generation plastics: bioplastic, biodegradable, recycled?

This data-file captures 17 plastic products derived from mechanical recycling, biologically-sourced feedstocks or that is bio-degradable. The 'greenest" plastics are c30% lower in CO2 than conventional plastics, but around 2x more costly.
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Ethane cracking: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of ethane-cracking to produce ethylene. A typical US Gulf Coast facility could generate 15% IRRs at typical capex cost of $1,135/Tpa. CO2 intensity can be as high as 1.7T of CO2 per ton of ethylene, or potentially much lower depending on the facility's energy efficiency.
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Construction materials: a screen of costs and CO2 intensities?

This data-file calculates the costs, the embedded energy and the embedded CO2 of different construction materials, both during their production and for ongoing heating and cooling. Insulated wood and cross-laminated timber have the lowest CO2 intensities and can be extremely cost competitive.
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CO2 electrolysis: the economics?

Carbon monoxide is an important chemical input for metals, materials and fuels. Could it be produced by capturing CO2 from the atmosphere or using the amine process, then electrolysing the CO2 into CO and oxygen? We find 10% IRRs could be achievable at $800/ton, competitive with conventional syngas.
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3D printing an energy transition?

Additive manufacturing (AM) can eliminate 6% of global CO2, across manufacturing, transport, heat and supply chains. We have quantified each opportunity and reviewed 5,500 patents to identify who benefits, among Capital Goods companies, AM Specialists and the Materials sector.
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Additive manufacturing: technology leaders?

This data-file tabulates 5,500 patents into additive manufacturing (3D printing), in order to identify technology leaders. Patent filings over time show a sharp acceleration, making AM one of the fastest growth areas for the energy transition.  We profile 14 concentrated specialists, plus broader Cap Goods and Materials companies.
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Turn the Plastics into Roads?

An opportunity is emerging to absorb mixed plastic waste, displacing bitumen from road asphalts. We find strong economics, with net margins of $200/ton of plastic, deflating the materials costs of roads by c4%. The challenge is scaling the opportunity beyond 20MTpa, as unrecycled waste plastics surpass 320MTpa. Leading companies include Dow (US, public) and MacRebur … Continue reading "Turn the Plastics into Roads?"
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Plastic Recycling Companies: pyrolysis and next-generation recycling?

This data-file assesses the outlook for 30 plastic pyrolysis companies, operating (or constructing) 100 plants around the world, which use chemical processes to turn waste plastic back into oil. The data-file has been updated in 2023, concluding that the theme is 'on track', but segmented between leaders and setbacks.
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Value in Use: CO2 intensities of household items?

More extensive "sharing" will be enabled by drone delivery technologies and could save $1trn of costs and 100MTpa of CO2 emissions across the entire US. These numbers are illustrated by tabulating the data for 20 common household items, which we estimate are currently used just 20 times in their entire useful lives, thus costing $13 and 1.3kg of CO2 per use, on average.
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Make CO2 into valuable products?

What if CO2 was not a waste product, but a valuable commercial feedstock? We have assessed the top 27 companies at the cutting edge, commercialising CO2 into next-generation plastics, foams, concretes, specialty chemicals and agricultural products. Each company is assessed in detail. 13 are particularly exciting. 21 are start-ups. Aramco, Chevron, Repsol also screen well.
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TOTAL’s Plastic-Recycling Progress?

TOTAL is currently pioneering the greatest advances in plastic-recycling technologies among the Majors, based on our database of 3,000 patents. This data-file covers its comprehensive inter-mixing of chromium-catalysed polyethylene, to reduce defects and increase the strength of post-consumer resins. In turn, this extends their use to films, containers and pipes.
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Thermo-Plastic Composite: The Future of Risers?

We estimate thermo-plastic composite riser costs line-by-line. Savings should reach 45%. The file also includes a complete history of TCP installations to-date, as this technology's adoption continues.
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Turn the Plastic Back into Oil

Due to the limitations of mechanical recycling, 85% of the world’s plastic is incinerated, dumped into landfill, or worst of all, ends up in the oceans. An alternative, plastic pyrolysis, is on the cusp of commercialisation.
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Coal Research

Global coal production: supply outlook in energy transition?

Our models of the energy transition ease coal production back from a new all-time peak of 8.3GTpa in 2022 to 0.5GTpa by 2050. This is sheer fantasy without a vast scale-up of wind, solar, gas and nuclear. This model breaks down coal production by country.
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Coal power generation: minute-by-minute flexibility?

Coal power generation is aggregated in this data-file, at the largest single-unit coal power plant in Australia, across five-minute intervals, for the whole of 2023. The Kogan Creek coal plant produces stable baseload power, with average utilization rate of 85%. But it exhibits lower flexibility to backstop renewables than gas-fired generation.
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European gas and power model: natural gas supply-demand?

European gas and power markets will look better-supplied than they truly are in 2023-24. A dozen key input variables can be stress-tested in the data-file. Overall, we think Europe will need to source over 15bcfd of LNG through 2030, especially US LNG.
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Post-combustion CCS: what energy penalties?

A thermal power plant converts 35-45% of the chemical energy in coal, biomass or pellets into electrical energy. So what happens to the other 55-65%? Accessing this waste heat can mean the difference between 20% and 60% energy penalties for post-combustion CCS. This 10-page note explores how much heat can be recaptured.
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Thermal power plant: loss attribution?

This data-file is a simple loss attribution for a thermal power plant. For example, a typical coal-fired power plant might achieve a primary efficiency of 38%, converting thermal energy in coal into electrical energy. Our loss attribution covers the other 62% using simple physics and industry average data-points.
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Electrostatic precipitator: costs of particulate removal?

Electrostatic precipitator costs can add 0.5 c/kWh onto coal or biomass-fired electricity prices, in order to remove over 99% of the dusts and particulates from exhaust gases. Electrostatic precipitators cost $50/kWe of up-front capex to install. Energy penalties average 0.2%. These systems are also important upstream of CCS plants.
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Selective catalytic reduction: costs of NOx removal?

This data-file captures selective catalytic reduction costs to remove NOx from the exhaust gas of combustion boilers and burners. Our base case estimate is 0.25 c/kWh at a combined cycle gas plant, which equates to $4,000/ton of NOx removed. Capex costs, operating costs, coal plants and marine fuels can be stress-tested in the model.
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Air quality: sulphur, NOx and particulate emissions?

The flue gas of a typical combustion facility contains c7% CO2, 60ppm of NOx, 40ppm of SOx and 2ppm of particulate dusts. This is our conclusion from tabulating data across 75 large combustion facilities, mainly power generation facilities in Europe. However, the range is broad. As a rule of thumb, gas is cleanest, biomass and coal are worse, while some diesel-fired units are associated with the lowest air quality in our sample.
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Flue gas desulfurization: costs of SO2 scrubbers?

This data-file captures the costs of flue gas desulfurization, specifically the costs of SO2 scrubbers, used to remove SO2 from the exhaust of coal- or distillate- fueled boilers and burners. We think a typical scrubber will remove 95% of the SO2 from the flue gas, but requires a >1c/kWh surcharge on electricity sales in order to earn a 10% IRR.
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Costs of hydrogen from coal gasification?

What are the costs of hydrogen from coal gasification? This model looks line-by-line, across different plant configurations, aggregating data from technical papers. Black hydrogen costs $1-2/kg. But CO2 intensity is very high, as much as 25 tons/ton. It can possibly be decarbonized resulting in semi-clean hydrogen costing c$2.5/kg.
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Coal grades: what CO2 intensity?

The CO2 intensity of coal is estimated at 0.37kg/kWh of thermal energy, at a typical coal grade comprising 63% carbon and 6,250 kWh/ton of energy content. This is the average across 25 samples in our data-file, while moisture, ash and sulphur are also appraised. Coal is 2x more CO2 intensive than natural gas.
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Bio-coke: energy economics?

Bio-coke is a substitute for coal-coke in steel-making and other smelting operations. We model it will cost c$450/ton, c50% more than coal-coke, but saves 2 - 2.5 tons/ton of CO2. Abatement costs can be as low as $70/ton. Although not always, and there are comparability issues.
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All the coal in China: our top ten charts?

Chinese coal provides 15% of the world’s energy, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabia's worth of oil. Global energy markets may become 10% under-supplied if this output plateaus per our ‘net zero’ scenario. Alternatively, might China ramp its coal, especially as Europe bids harder for renewables and LNG post-Russia? This note presents our ‘top ten’ charts.
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Coal miners: a screen of Western companies?

In 2022-25, bizarrely, we could be in a market where deployment of important energy transition technologies is being held back by energy shortages and metals shortages, which both pull on the demand for coal. This data-file screens fifteen of the largest Western coal producers.
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Energy return on energy invested?

Global average EROEI is around 30x. Sources with EROEI above average are hydro, nuclear, natural gas and coal. Sources with middling EROEIs of 10-20x are solar, wind and LNG. Sources with weaker EROEIs are oil products, green hydrogen and some biofuels.
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Global energy market model for the energy transition?

This model breaks down 2050 and 2100's global energy market, based on a dozen input assumptions. You can 'flex' these, to see how it will affect future oil, coal and gas demand, as well as global CO2 emissions. We reach 'net zero' by 2050. Even as fossil fuel demand rises 18%, gas demand trebles and renewables also reach c16%.
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Power plants: cold starts and ramp rates?

This data-file aggregates the ramp-up rates of power generation sources, as they start up from "cold", and then as they ramp up (in MW per minute). Hydro and simple cycle gas turbines are fastest, followed by CCGTS, coal and nuclear.
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Coal mining: the economics?

Coal is ridiculously cheap, providing thermal energy at around 1c/kWh while also generating a 10% IRR on new investment. But CO2 intensity is also very high at 0.55kg/kWh (thermal basis). Capex, opex and cost breakdowns are in the data-file.
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US CCS: market sizing?

This data-file aims to bound the potential market-size for CCS in the US, which is around 500MTpa. Our bottom up calculations look industry-by-industry. To put this in perspective, we also quantified how many million tons of oil and gas have been extracted out of subsurface reservoirs in the US over the past 40-years.
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US CO2 emissions by industrial facility size?

This data-file has aggregated CO2 emissions from 2,500 US industrial facilities. Many coal plants may be 'too large' for CCS. Most ethanol plants are 'too small'. But 100 facilities in cement, steel and ammonia are 'right sized' and explain 2% of all US CO2 emissions.
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China: can the factory of the world decarbonize?

China now aspires to reach ‘net zero’ CO2 by 2060. But is this compatible with growing an industrial economy and attaining Western living standards? The best middle-ground sees China’s coal phased out and gas rising by a vast 10x to 300bcfd. The biggest challenges are geopolitics and sourcing enough LNG.
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Energy economics: energy content of combustion fuels?

The purpose of this data-file is to disaggregate the energy economics of combusting different fuels, including natural gas, different oil products, NGLs, coal, hydrogen, methanol, ammonia et al. The most effective way to blend more hydrogen into the energy mix is coal-to-gas switching, followed by using lighter oil products.
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Energy Transition Technologies?

This data-file "scores" the top technologies to transform the global energy industry and the world, as assessed by Thunder Said Energy. Each one is scored based on technical readiness, economic impact and the level of work we have conducted.
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Energy infrastructure: labor intensity?

How many jobs are created by different types of energy? This data-file aggregates the labor intensity of different energy sources, which average 50-150 workers per TWH, on an ongoing basis. Another rough rule of thumb is that each $1bn of capex requires 1,000 peak constructon workers, although some project categories are materially more labor intensive than others.
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Coal-to-gas switching: what CO2 abatement cost?

Coal-to-gas switching halves the CO2 emissions per unit of primary energy. This data-file estimates the CO2 abatement costs. Gas is often more expensive than coal. But as a rule of thumb, a $30-60/ton CO2 price makes $6-8/mcf gas competitive with $60-80/ton coal. CO2 abatement costs are materially lower in the US and after reflecting efficiency. Commodity price volatility in 2022 does not change long-term abatement costs.
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The route to net zero: an energy-climate model for 2-degrees

We have modeled the global climate system from 1750-2065, to simplify the science of energy transition. 'Net zero' is achievable by 2050. Atmospheric CO2 remains below 450ppm, consistent with 2-degrees warming. Fossil fuel usage is 10% higher than today, but the fossil fuel industry is transformed.
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CO2 intensity of coal production?

Producing a ton of coal typically emits 0.19T of CO2, equivalent to 50kg/boe. The numbers comprise mining, methane leaks and transportation. Hence domestic coal production will tend to emit 2x more CO2 than gas production, plus c2x more CO2 in combustion. However, numbers vary widely based on input assumptions, such as methane lakage rates, btu content and transportation distances, which can be flexed in the model.  
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Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: CCS plus Power? The Economics?

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process. We model competitive economics. Our model runs of 18 input variables, which you can stress-test.
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Coal-to-Power Project Economics

Greenfield coal-to-power economics vary markedly by region. IRRs can reach 30% in emerging markets with low capex costs, high utilization and no carbon prices. But they fail to return their capital costs under developed world air standards and $25/ton CO2 pricing. Please download the model to stress-test the economics.
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Global hydrogen: market breakdown?

This data-file is a global hydrogen market breakdown, disaggregating the 110MTpa market (mainly ammonia, methanol and refining), how it is met via different production technologies, and our estimates of those technologies' costs (in $/kg) and CO2 intensities (in kg/kg or tons/ton).
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Global CO2 emissions breakdown?

Global CO2 emissions rose from 32GTpa of CO2-equivalents in 1990 to 54GTpa in 2024, and are seen optimistically declining to 30GTpa by 2050, on a gross basis. This global CO2 emisisons breakdown covers 33 sources that each explain over 0.5% of global CO2e emissions, as a way of tracking emissions by source, by year, and our projections in the energy transition.
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Major technologies to decarbonise power?

Oil Majors will play a crucial role in decarbonising the energy system, while also securing the future of fossil fuels. Hence, to help identify the leading companies, this-data file summarises over 80 patents for de-carbonising power-generation, drawn from our database of over 3,000 patent-filings from the largest energy companies in 2018.
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De-carbonising carbon?

Decarbonisation is often taken to mean the end of fossil fuels. More feasible is to de-carbonise fossil fuels. This 15-page note explores two top opportunities for low-cost decarbonisation of coal and gas: 'Oxy-Combustion' and 'Chemical Looping Combustion'. Leading Oil Majors support these solutions.
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Chemical Looping Progress?

Chemical Looping Combustion could clean up future coal or gas-fired power. But will it work? We have tabulated data from the technical literature on 40 chemical looping combustion pilots. They have run collectively for 10,000 hours. They promise 38% energy efficiencies for zero carbon emissions.
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Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Vehicles: energy transition conclusions?

Vehicles transport people and freight around the world, explaining 70% of global oil demand, 30% of global energy use, 20% of global CO2e emissions. This overview summarizes all of our research into vehicles, and key conclusions for the energy transition.
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EV incentives: vehicle taxes by country?

Vehicle taxes by country are tabulated in this data-file, based on vehicles' pre-tax prices, tailpipe emissions, weight, engine size and power. They range from sub-10% of the cost of the underlying vehicle in the US, through to 150% in Norway, and above 100% in Netherlands, Denmark and France. What implications for EV adoption?
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Mapping vehicle value chains?

Who is impacted if vehicle sales, EVs or ICE volumes surprise? Autos are a $2.7 trn pa global market, a vast 2.5% of global GDP. 15% is gross margin for OEMs. The other 85% is spread across metals, materials and capital goods. Hence this 14-page note highlights 200 companies from our database of 1,500 companies. Some are geared to ICEs. Some to EVs. And some to both.
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Global vehicle sales by manufacturer?

Global vehicle sales by manufacturer are broken down in this screen. 20 companies produce 85% of the world's vehicles, led by Toyota, VW, Stellantis, GM and Ford. The data-file contains key numbers and notes on each company, including each company's sales of BEVs, PHEVs, general EV strategy, and how it has been evolving in 2024.
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Going platinum: PGMs in energy transition?

Could PGMs experience another up-cycle through 2030, on more muted EV sales growth in 2025-30, and rising catalyst loadings per ICE vehicle? This 16-page note explores global supply chains for platinum and palladium, the long-term demand drivers for PGMs in energy transition, and profiles leading PGM producers.
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Vehicle emissions of CO, NOx and HCs?

There has been a remarkable reduction in the negative air quality impacts of combustion vehicles since 1970, as quantified in this data-file and over time. Vehicle emissions of CO, NOx and HCs have all fallen by 20-60x over the past 50-years, to 5 grams/mile, 0.2 grams/mile and 0.3 grams per mile, respectively. This data-file quantifies … Continue reading "Vehicle emissions of CO, NOx and HCs?"
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Electric vehicles: the road to cost parity?

Could electric vehicles deflate towards cost parity with ICEs in 2025-30, helping to re-accelerate EV adoption? This 13-page report contains a granular sum-of-the-parts cost breakdown for EVs vs ICEs. Then we consider battery deflation, power train deflation, small urban EVs, tax incentives, and the representativeness of low-cost Chinese EVs.
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Vehicle depreciation rates: EVs versus ICEs?

This data-file quantifies the cost per mile of vehicle ownership across different categories by correlating second hand car prices with their accumulated mileage. Hybrids and regular passenger cars are most economical. SUVs and EVs are 2x more expensive. Hydrogen vehicles depreciate fastest and will have lost over 90% of their value after 100,000 miles.
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Electric vehicle cost breakdown by component?

This data-file disaggregates the $30k total cost of a typical new ICE and the c$45k total cost of a typical new EV, as a sum-of-the-parts, across 25 cost lines. Drivetrain costs are similar at $8-9k each. The key challenge for the EV is the battery. The electric vehicle cost breakdown shows promise for improving power electronics and smaller batteries.
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Electric vehicles: saturation point?

Energy transition technologies are often envisaged to follow S-curves: rapidly inflecting, then reaching 100% market adoption. However, this 17-page report argues electric vehicles will more likely saturate at 15-30% of sales in 2025-30. EVs were already at 15% of sales in 2023. So what would the more limited EV upside mean for energy and materials?
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Turbochargers: leading companies?

Six leading companies in turbochargers control two-thirds of the $15-20bn pa global turbochargers market. 55% of ICE vehicles now have turbochargers, which can improve fuel economy my as much as 10%, by enabling smaller and better utilized engines to achieve higher peak power ratings. What opportunities ahead, to adapt for vehicle electrification, or even if EV sales accelerate less than expected in 2025-30?
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Electricity demand for electric vehicles?

Global electricity demand for electric vehicles will rise from 120TWH in 2024 to 500 TWH in 2030 and 3,300 TWH in 2050, ultimately adding 11% upside to today's global electricity demand, as part of our roadmap to net zero. This data-file quantifies electricity demand for EVs by region and over time, including data into the real-world fuel economy of EVs.
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Electric vehicles: total cost of ownership?

Electric vehicles' total cost of ownership remains 40% higher than ICE vehicles, at $7,000 per year, versus $5,000 per year, all based on the latest 2024 data, for 50 vehicles. Electric vehicle up-front prices are 55% higher, insurance costs are 30% higher, while energy costs are 60% lower. 20 different pricing metrics are compared and contrasted in this data-file.
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Electric vehicle: battery life?

Electric vehicle battery life will realistically need to reach 1,500 cycles for the average passenger vehicle, 2,000-3,000 cycles after reflecting a margin of safety for real-world statistical distributions, and 3,000-6,000 cycles for higher-use commercial vehicles. This means lithium ion batteries may be harder to displace with novel chemistries?
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Electric vehicles: breaking the ICE?

Electric vehicles are a world-changing technology, 2-6x more efficient than ICEs, but how quickly will they ramp up to re-shape global oil demand? This 14-page note finds surprising ‘stickiness’. Even as EV sales explode to 200M units by 2050 (2x all-time peak ICE sales), the global ICE fleet may only fall by 40%. Will LT oil demand surprise to the upside or downside?
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Global vehicle fleet: vehicle sales and electrification by region?

We have modeled the global light vehicle fleet, light vehicle sales by region, and the world's shift from internal combustion engines (ICEs) towards electric vehicles (EVs) through 2050. Our base case model sees almost 200M EV sales by 2050, and a c40% decline to around 1bn combustion vehicles in the world's fleet by 2050.
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Vehicle fleets: service life and retirement age by vehicle type?

The weighted-average combustion vehicle in the world has a current age of 12-years and an expected service life of 20-years. In other words, a new combustion vehicle entering the global fleet in 2023 will most likely be running through 2043. Useful data and notes are compiled overleaf.
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Electric vehicles: motors and magnets?

This data-file assesses electric vehicle magnets, permanent magnets and the use of Rare Earth materials such as neodymium (NdFeB). 80-90% of recent EVs have used Rare Earth permanent magnets, averaging 1.5 kg per vehicle, or 7.5g/kW of drive-train power, across the data-file. But the numbers vary vastly. From 0-4 kg per vehicle. 20 vehicles from different OEMs are tabulated in the data-file.
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Bulk shipping: cost breakdown?

Bulk carriers move 5GTpa of commodities around the world, explaining half of all seaborne global trade. This model is a breakdown of bulk shipping cost. We estimate a cost of $2.5 per ton per 1,000-miles, and a CO2 intensity of 5kg per ton per 1,000-miles. Marine scrubbers increasingly earn their keep and uplift IRRs from 10% to 12% via fuel savings.
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Commercial aviation: fuel economy of planes?

This data-file calculates the fuel economy of planes from first principles, using physics to calculate lift and drag, and comparing with actual data from aircraft manufacturers. The typical fuel economy of a plane is 80 passenger-mpg to carry 400 passengers, 8,000km at 900kmph, using jet fuel with 12,000 Wh/kg energy density. What sensitivities and decarbonization opportunities?
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Offshore vessels: fuel consumption?

This database tabulates the typical fuel consumption of offshore vessels, in bpd and MWH/day. We think a typical offshore construction vessel will consume 300bpd, a typical rig consumes 200bpd, supply vessels consume 150bpd, cable-lay vessels consume 150bpd, dredging vessels consume 100bpd and medium-sized support vessels consume 50bpd. Examples are given in each category, with typical variations in the range of +/- 50%.
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Hillcrest: ZVS inverter breakthrough?

Hillcrest Energy Technologies is developing an ultra-efficient SiC inverter, which has 30-70% lower switching losses, up to 15% lower system cost, weight, size, and thus interesting applications in electric vehicles. How does it work and can we de-risk the technology?
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Auto manufacturing: the economics?

This is a simple model, to break down the $30k sales price of a typical mass-market automobile. c25% accrues to suppliers, c20% is sales taxes, c20% is dealer costs/logistics, c10% employees, c10% material inputs, c10% O&M, 1% electricity and c5% auto-maker margins. Prices may inflate 60% amidst industrial shortages.
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EV fast charging: opening the electric floodgates?

This 14-page note explains the crucial power-electronics in an electric vehicle fast-charging station, running at 150-350kW. Most important are power-MOSFETs, comprising c5-10% of charger costs. The market trebles by the late 2020s.
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Power-MOSFETs: leading companies?

Power MOSFETs are an energy transition technology, the building block behind inverters, DC-DC converters, EV drive trains, EV chargers and other renewables-battery interfaces. Hence this data-file is a screen of companies making power MOSFETs, especially new and higher-efficiency devices using Silicon Carbide as the semi-conductor.
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Electric vehicles: chargers of the light brigade?

This 14-page note compares the economics of EV charging stations with conventional fuel retail stations. Our main question is whether EV chargers will ultimately get over-built. Hence prospects may be best for charging equipment and component manufacturers.
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Electric motors: state of flux?

This 15-page note explores whether axial flux motors could come to dominate in the future of transportation. They promise 2-3x higher power densities, even versus Tesla’s world-leading PMSRMs; and 10-15x higher than clunky industrial AC induction units; while also surpassing c96% efficiencies.
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Axial flux motors: leading companies and products?

This data-file profiles leading companies and products in the space of axial flux motors, with an average power density of almost 8kW/kg, which is 10x higher than a typical AC induction motor in heavy industry. Leading companies are profiled, based on reviewing over 1,200 patents.
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Mine trucks: transport economics?

There are around 50,000 giant mining trucks in operation globally. The largest examples are 15m long, 10m wide, 8m high, can carry around 350-450 tons and reach top speeds of 40mph. This data-file captures the economics, costs and inflationary impacts of decarbonization.
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LNG transport: shipping economics?

This data-file breaks down the cost of shipping cryogenic cargoes in seaborne tankers. LNG costs $1-3/mcf. The most important input variable is transport distance. Although switching to e-fuels (green hydrogen, ammonia, methanol) can double total cost.
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Commercial aviation: air travel economics?

This data-file estimates the economics of a passenger jet, over the course of its life: i.e., what ticket price must be charged to earn a 10% IRR after covering the capex costs of the plane, fuel costs, crew, maintenance and airport and air traffic charges. Decarbonization is challenging.
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Container freight: shipping economics?

This data-file models the total costs of shipping a container c10,000 nautical miles from China to the West, in a 20,000 TEU vessel. Emerging fuels can lower the CO2 intensity of shipping from their baseline of 0.15kg/TEU-mile, by 60-90%, but freight costs inflate by 30%-3x.
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ChargePoint: electric vehicle charging edge?

ChargePoint is the leading provider of Level 2 EV charging stations in the US and aims to help electrify mobility and freignt. Our review finds a library of simple, clear, specific and easy-to-understand patents. More debatable are the technology edge and future IP defensability.
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Vehicle mass: what opportunities to improve fuel economy?

Steel comprises c50% of the volume and c80% of the weight of materials in a vehicle. Each 1% reduction in mass yields a 1% improvement in fuel econome. Carbon fiber repays its extra costs after 30-70k miles, while hybridisation repays its extra costs after 10-30k miles.
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Battery recycling: long division?

Recycling lithium batteries could be worth $100bn per year by 2040 while supporting electric vehicles’ ascent. Hence new companies are emerging to recapture 95% of spent materials with environmentally sound methods. Our 15-page note explores what it would take for battery-recycling to become both practical and compelling.
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Nio: EV-charging breakthrough?

Nio is a listed, electric vehicle manufacturer, headquartered in Shanghai. It operates over 200 "battery swap" stations, and the 2-millionth battery swap was completed in March-2021, with swap times soon falling to 3-minutes. Our patent analysis suggests a genuine moat in swappable batteries, which could only have been built up by an auto-maker. 
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Oil demand: the rise of autonomous vehicles?

We are raising our medium-term oil demand forecasts by 2.5-3.0 Mbpd to reflect the growing reality of autonomous vehicles. AVs improve fuel economy in cars and trucks by 15-35%, and displace 1.2Mbpd of air travel. But their convenience also increases travel. This note outlines the opportunity.
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Energy costs of lithium ion batteries?

This data-file estimates the energy costs of lithium ion batteries across 17 lines. Our best estimate in 2024 is that manufacturing 1 kWh of lithium ion batteries requires 175 kWh of useful energy and emits 100kg of CO2. When a lithium ion battery is used in an electric vehicle, these up-front energy and CO2 costs should be repaid 10x over.
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Autonomous vehicles: technology leaders?

We have screened 25 leading companies in autonomous vehicles (public and private), tabulating their technical progress and proposals for Level 4-5 autonomy. 75% of the companies were founded in the last decade. Leaders are focused on freight, cars, taxis and LiDAR sensing.
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Electric trucks: what battery sizes?

An electric truck would need a 15 ton battery to match the c2,500-mile range of a diesel truck. However, larger batteries above c8-tons detract 10% from fuel economy and may cause trucks to exceed regulatory weight limits, lowering their payload capacities. 4-6 ton batteries with 700-1,000km ranges are optimal.
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Nature Based Solutions

Nature based solutions to climate change?

Nature based solutions are likely to deliver c20-25% of the decarbonization in a realistic roadmap to net zero. Reforestation is low-cost (c$50/ton), technically ready, convenient and helps nature. Key challenges are improving the quality of nature-based CO2 removals and accelerating momentum. We see upside for companies that can clear these hurdles. Our top ten conclusions into nature-based solutions to climate change follow below.
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Nature-based CO2 removals: a summary?

This data-file aggregates the details of different nature-based CO2 removals projects that we have been supporting at Thunder Said Energy. The average nature-based reforestation initiative that we supported in 2022 scored 70/100 on our framework. Statistical details and distributions are explored.
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Reforestation: what planting density for seedlings?

What is the typical planting density for reforestation projects globally? This matters as it can determine the costs of reforestation. Hence in this data-file we have collated data from 25 different case studies globally, which have tended to plant a median of 670 seedlings per acre (1,650 per hectare).
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Growing economies: reforest and reinvest?

CO2 removal credits could add 6-60% to the GDP of 47 emerging countries as they reforest 1.5bn acres and create a 7.5GTpa CO2 sink, while the resultant cash flows could double these countries’ investment rates. Reinvesting in wind, solar, electrification avoids higher carbon fuels and deforestation for firewood. Reinvesting in timber value chains maximizes CO2 permanence and value. This 13-page note explores the opportunity.
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Wood products: typical pricing?

This data-file aggregates the pricing of different wood products, as storing carbon in long-lived materials matters amidst the energy transition. It can also add economic value. While upgrading raw timber into high value materials can uplift realized pricing in reforestation projects by 20-60x, which improves the permanence of nature-based CO2 removal credits.
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CO2 removals: CO2OL Panama project?

The CO2OL Tropical Mix project has planted 9M trees on 13,000 hectares of degraded pasture land across 45 sites in Panama since 1995. 20-30% of the land is reserved for conservation. The project achieved a relatively high score of 88/100 on our usual assessment framework. CO2 credits are priced at $38/ton. We contributed $1,900 to the project and offset 50 tons of CO2.
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Tree seedlings: costs and economics?

The US plants over 1.3bn tree seedlings per year. Especially pine. These seedlings are typically 8-10 months old, with heights of 25-30mm, root collars of 5mm, and total mass of 5-10 grams, having been grown by dedicated producers. This data-file captures the costs of tree seedlings, to support afforestation, reforestation or broader forestry.
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Albedo of different landscapes: a challenge for reforestation?

Forests are darker than their surroundings? So does their low albedo curb our enthusiasm for nature-based solutions? This data-file aggregates the average albedo of different landscapes. The albedo impact of reforestation seems numerically very small. There is even an intriguing link where forests can increase the formation of clouds, which have the highest average albedo of any reflective category.
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Nature based solutions: CO2 removals in 2022?

Is the nascent market for nature-based carbon offsets working? We appraised five projects in 2022, and contributed $7,700 to capture 440 tons of CO2, which is 20x our own CO2 footprint. This 11-page note presents our top five conclusions. Today’s market lacks depth and efficiency. High-quality credits are most bottlenecked. Prices rise further in 2023. A new wave of projects is emerging?
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CO2 offsets: Pachama’s AI platform?

Pachama is a nature-based technology company, which has raised $79M, to create a portal where buyers can choose "from rigorously vetted forest restoration and conservation projects", which in turn are tracked using proprietary AI. This data-file evaluates Pachama's portfolio and our own experiences, using our usual framework for assessing nature-based CO2 removals.
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Tigercat: forestry and timber innovations?

Tigercat is a private company, founded in 1992, headquartered in Ontario, Canada, with c2,000 employees. The company produces specialized machinery for forestry, logging, materials processing and off-road equipment. Our patent review has found a moat around reliable, easy-to-maintain, mobile and efficient forestry equipment.
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Energy history: how much wood can be cut in a day?

How much wood can be cut in a day? We review 500-years of industrial history. In medieval times, a manorial tenant might have gathered 250kg of fallen branches in a day. A modern feller-buncher is 150x more productive. But a modern energy analyst is little better than a medieval peasant, and harvesting wood as a heating fuel is expensive, inconvenient and risk-prone.
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CO2 removals: teak plantations, Nicaragua?

We reviewed a reforestation initiative, which should absorb 100,000 tons of CO2 from the atmosphere, by row-planting teak on former pasture land in Nicaragua. The project scores 70/100 on our five-point framework. But it also illustrates key debates for nature-based CO2 removals.
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Biodiversity: a breakdown of species and carbon stocks?

550GT of Carbon is stored in the living biomass of 40M species currently inhabiting planet Earth. About 70,000 are vertebrate species and 6,000 are mammal species. What implications for biodiversity, climate change and nature based solutions?
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Carbon offsets: cost of CO2 removal per tree planted?

What is the cost of CO2 removal by planting trees? This calculator assesses different types of trees, types of planting, survival, permanence and discounting. A good ballpark range is $15-30/ton. Verified CO2 removals are likely higher cost but higher quality offsets.
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CO2 Removals: BaumInvest Mixed Reforestation, Costa Rica?

We have reviewed the BaumInvest Mixed Reforestation Project in Costa Rica, on a framework for de-risking nature-based CO2 removals. As a result, we have purchased 67 tons of CO2 removals from the project, at $45/ton, for a total of $3,015 in July-2022.
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Savanna carbon: great plains?

Savannas are an open mix of trees, brush and grasses. They comprise up to 20% of the world’s land, 30% of its CO2 fixation, and their active management could abate 1GTpa of CO2 at low cost. This 17-page research note was inspired by exploring some wild savannas and thus draws on photos and observation.
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Palm oil: what CO2 intensity?

Global palm oil production runs at 80MTpa, for food, HPC and bio-fuels. Carbon intensity is 1.2 tons CO2e per ton of crude palm oil, excluding land use impacts, and 8.0 tons/ton on a global basis including land use impacts. This means once a bio-fuel has more than c35% palm oil in its feedstock, it is likely to be higher carbon than conventional diesel.
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Wood use: what CO2 credentials?

The carbon credentials of wood are not black-and-white. They depend on context. This 13-page note draws out the numbers and five key conclusions. They count against deforestation, in favor of using waste wood, in favor of wood materials (with some debate around paper) and strongly in favor of natural gas.
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CO2 intensity of wood: context by context?

This data-file calculates the CO2 intensity of wood in the energy transition. Context matters, and can sway the net climate impacts from -2 tons of emissions reductions per ton of wood through to +2 tons of incremental emissions per ton of wood. Calculations can be stress-tested in the data-file.
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Global wood production: supply by country by year?

This data-file quantifies global wood production, country-by-country, back to 1960, across energy, pulp and longer-lasting materials. Overall, wood energy has declined from 11% of the world's primary energy mix in 1960 to c4% today, but it remains stubbornly high in less-developed countries, amplifying deforestation.
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Finnish forests: a two billion ton CO2 case-study?

Can forestry remove CO2 from the atmosphere at multi-GTpa scale? This 19-page note is a case study from Finland, where detailed data goes back a century. 70% of the country is forest. It is managed sustainably, equitably, economically. And forests have sequestered 2GT of CO2 in the past century, offsetting two-thirds of the country’s fossil emissions.
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Finnish forests: trees, yields, costs, value?

This data-base aggregates data from the Natural Resources Institute of Finland, covering how Finnish forestry produces 75 million m3 of wood per year, while also having accumulated 1bn tons of additional biomass over the past century, while creating €20bn pa of value and employing 60,000 people.
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Reforestation: costs of CO2 removals?

Reforestation costs are modelled in this data-file, acquiring pastureland, planting new forests to absorb CO2, over a 50-year cycle. As a good rule of thumb, we think $50/ton CO2 prices, $50/m3 timber, and 3% pa land appreciation will unlock an 8% unlevered IRR at Yield Class 16 (5 tons of CO2 per acre per year). CO2 price sensitivities range from $0 to $100/ton.
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UK reforestation projects: 25 case studies?

This data-file reviews 25 examples of forestation projects in the United Kingdom, which have followed the UK Woodland Carbon Code. We conclude that the projects are high-quality and may have interesting co-benefits. Key data-points are in the file.
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Biodiversity: impacts on forest CO2?

We have reviewed ten technical papers correlating forest carbon absorption with bio-diversity. In global meta-studies, diverse forests absorb 15-25% more CO2 than mono-cultures. The best studies achieve 70% higher carbon uptake in highly biodiverse forests.
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Carbon neutral investing: hedge funds, forest funds?

This 11-page note considers a new model of ‘carbon neutral’ investing. Look-through emissions of a portfolio are quantified (Scope 1 & 2 basis). Then accordingly, an allocation is made to high-quality, nature-based CO2 removals. Advantages and practicalities are discussed.
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Carbon-offset equities’ Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions?

This data-file quantifies the look-through Scope 1&2 CO2 emissions of a basket of 35 MSCI ACWI companies. Hence, we have calculated what share of dividend income would be absorbed in each case, if an investor were to divert some of these dividends into high-quality nature-based CO2 removals.
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Nature based CO2 removals: theory of evolution?

Learning curves and cost deflation are widely assumed in new energies but overlooked for nature-based CO2 removals. Support for NBS has already stepped up sharply in 2021. This 15-page note finds the CO2 uptake of well-run reforestation projects could double again.
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Tree crops: financial and agricultural yields?

This data-file compiles the estimated calorific and financial yields of tree crops versus conventional crops such as corn and soybean. Tree crops absorb more CO2 and have strong economic potential. Value is 2x higher than conventional agriculture although calorific yields may be 50-90% lower.
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Integrated gas and renewable power?

Ths data-file captures how to supply 100MWe and 1,000GWH pa of energy to a mid-sized consumer: reliably, at a low-cost and with zero net CO2 emissions. We think this is possible at a delivered power price below 10c/kWh, which is highly competitive.
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Photo opp: reforestation, CO2 fertilization and global temperatures?

Well-crafted reforestation projects may absorb atmospheric CO2 25% more rapidly than in the past, aligning species and site selection with the world's changing climate. This work outlines the bio-chemistry of CO2 fertilization and temperature changes on photosynthetic productivity.
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Global reforestation potential by country?

This data-file estimates global 'reforestation potential' across 170 countries, based on their climate, area available, risk levels and economic costs, using a quantitative screen. One-half of the total area shown needs to be reforested in our roadmap to net zero.
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Carbon stocks: measuring the forest from the trees?

Measuring forest carbon is uncertain. Pessimistically, estimation errors could be as high as 25%. So does this disqualify nature based carbon credits? This 12-page note explores solutions, borrowing risk-pricing from credit markets, preferring bio-diversity and looking to drone/LiDAR technology.  
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Allometry: how much CO2 in a tree or forest?

This data-file contains cleaned-up allometry equations to quantify the amount of CO2 captured by a tree, based on its height and its diameter at 1.3m height (DBH). Variations are also noted in the data-file, in order to quantify the 'error of the estimate' when measuring forest carbon.
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Reforestation: a real-life roadmap?

This 12-page note sets out an early-stage ambition for Thunder Said Energy to reforest former farmland in Estonia, producing high-quality CO2 credits in a biodiverse forest. The primary purpose would be to stress-test nature-based carbon removals in our roadmap to net zero, and understand the bottlenecks.
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Land prices: an overview for renewables and reforestation?

The purpose of this data-file is to estimate the cost of land, which matters for renewables and reforestation projects, but also amidst rising inflation. Prices can be opaque and variable. For example, arable land in Europe ranges 100x from $700 to $70,000 per acre. Nevertheless, the data-file shows vast quantities of low cost land available for reforestation.
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Carbon offset funds: the future of ESG?

Reaching ‘net zero’ is impossible without nature based carbon removals. Hence this 17-page note argues corporations will increasingly create internal groups to procure carbon offsets. We make three arguments, twenty predictions and draw a historical analogy from labor reforms in 1850-1950.
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Biochar: burnt offerings?

Biochar is a miraculous material, improving soils, enhancing agricultural yields and avoiding 1.4kg of net CO2 emissions per kg of waste biomass. IRRs surpass 20% without CO2 prices or policy support. Hence this 18-page note outlines the opportunity.
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Biomass to biochar: the economics?

Biochar is a carbon negative material, according to our accounting, locking as much as 0.5kg of CO2 into soils per kg of dry biomass inputs. It can also be highly economical, with a base case IRR of 25%. Our full model allows you to stress-test input assumptions.
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