Download Tag: electricity

Electric vehicle charging: the economics?

This data-file models the economics of electric vehicle chargers. First, we disaggregate costs of different charger types across materials, electronic components, labor, permitting, fees, opex and maintenance (below).

Next we model what fees need to be charged by the charging stations (in c/kWh) in order to earn 10% IRRs.

Economics are most favorable where they can lead to incremental retail purchases and for larger, faster chargers.

Economics are least favorable around multi-family apartments, charging at work and for slower charging speeds.

UK grid volatility as renewable gain share?

This data-file contains the output from some enormous data-pulls, evaluating UK grid power generation by source, its volatility, and the relationship to hourly traded power prices. We conclude the grid is growing more expensive and volatile.

Different tabs in the data-file cover the total monthly demand of the UK power grid since 2016, broken down by generation source, month-by-month and smoothed over trailing twelve-month timeframes; statistical analysis of hourly power prices, by day and by quarter; and an hourly cross-correlation of wind generation with power prices (chart below).

We have recently updated the data-file to capture the extreme price spikes and volatility seen in 3Q2021.

The data-file is also regularly updated and we are happy to run bespoke analysis on the underlying data-sets for TSE clients.

Geothermal power: the economics?

This data-file captures the economics of geothermal heat and power, built up as a function of drilling costs, pumping costs and power-cycle costs.

Our base case numbers are calculated both for geothermal hotspots and for the exciting, next-generation technology of deep geothermal power. You can stress test input assumptions in cells H6:H25 of each model.

Further industry data follow in the subsequent half-dozen tabs, including a breakdown of capacity by country and by supplier, patent filings, leading companies and our notes from technical papers.

Smart Energy: technology leaders?

Smart meters and smart devices are capable of transmitting and receiving real-time data and instructions. They open up new ways of optimizing energy efficiency, peak demand, appliances and costs. Over 100M smart meters and thermostats had been installed in the United States (including at c90M residences) and 250M have been installed in Europe by 2020.

The purpose of this data-file is to profile c40 companies commercializing opportunities in smart energy monitoring, smart metering and smart thermostats. The majority are privately owned, at the venture or growth stage. We also tabulate their patent filings.

We find most of the offerings will lower end energy demand (by an average of 7%), assist with smoothing grid-volatility, provide appliance-by-appliance demand disaggregations and encourage consumers to upgrade inefficient or potentially even defective appliances. Numbers are tabulated in the data-file to quantify each of these effects.

Gas power: decline rates?

This data-file tabulates the power generation profiles of 3,000 US natural gas-fired power plants, which have reported data to the US EIA, aggregated using in-house web-scraping software.

Unlike wind and solar assets, which exhibit clear decline rates of 1.5% and 2.5% per year, natural gas assets run at c44% of their peak utilization rates on average, which does not change materially over time, flexing within an interquartile range that spans from 14% to 74%.

In other words, gas power plants provide flexibility and long-term reliability in a grid, as they are dialled up and dialled down over time to meet demand. This is also illustrated by looking at the underlying data of individual power plants in the file (chart below).

The data-file also presents a cautionary tale from California. To accomodate 40TWH of new utility-scale renewables generation, we show that 35TWH of gas generation has now been permanently shuttered and another 11TWH has been idled. These closures are equivalent to 30% of California’s baseload and 17% of its peakload power capacity, providing one explanation for the State’s recent rolling black-outs. Full details are split out in the data-file.

Leading Companies in Redox Flow Batteries

We have compiled a database of 25 leading companies in Redox Flow Batteries, starting by looking across 1,237 patents filed about the technology since 2017 (all patents are summarized in the second tab of the data-file).

For each company, we summarize its technology, its recent projects news, its size, its location and whether it is public/private. Covered companies range from public Asian conglomerates to public/private redox flow pure-plays.

Exciting progress is visible from Redox Flow batteries, rapidly progressing toward technical maturity, constructing demonstration facilities and offering ultra long-life battery storage, which could greatly surpass lithium ion economics in grid applications.

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells: CCS plus Power? The Economics?

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells could be extremely promising, generating electrical power from natural gas as an input, while also capturing CO2 from industrial flue gases through an electrochemical process.

We model competitive economics can be achieved, under our base case assumptions, making it possible to retrofit units next to carbon-intensive industrial facilities, while also helping to power them.

Our full model runs off 18 input variables, which you can flex, to stress test your own assumptions.

Battery Storage Costs: the economics?

This model shows the full-cycle cost of storing a kWh of electricity, across ten different technologies that have been proposed to backstop renewables.

The model allows you to flex input assumptions, such as the costs of each battery, its useful life and the frequency of charge/discharge cycles.

Pumped storage currently screens as most economical for backstopping renewables, by a factor of 3x, under our base case assumptions.

Backstopping solar also looks about 3x easier than backstopping wind, as smaller batteries are needed, and costs are a function of system size. But no battery can truly backstop renewables.

Covered storage technologies include pumped storage, compressed air storage, lithium ion batteries, redox flow batteries, four other battery types, flywheels and ultra-capacitors.

Fuel Cell Power Project Economics

This data-file models the economics of constructing a new fuel-cell power plant; generating electricity from grey, blue or green hydrogen in a PEMFC, or from natural gas in an SOFC. The work is based on technical papers and past projects around the industry.

A dozen input variables can be flexed in the model, to stress test economic sensitivity to: hydrogen prices, power prices, carbon price, distribution costs, conversion efficiency, capex costs, opex costs, utilization and tax rates.

Indicative inputs, and sensible ranges, are suggested for each of these input variables in the data-file.

Economics continue to look more challenged for hydrogen power, compared with simply decarbonizing or carbon offsetting natural gas power. Economics are closest to commercialist for gas-fired SOFCs, and could be interesting with c50% deflation and greater reliability, particularly as renewables get overbuild.

Variable Power Tariffs Exacerbate Social Inequalities?

This data-file tabulates the impacts of variable electricity tariffs, after switching 4.622 households over from fixed electricity tariffs, across a large-scale sample in the United States. This theme is increasingly important as intermittent renewables reach saturation in developed world power grids.

Residential electricity demand is inelastic, with a 20% price-increase yielding a mere 1% reduction in end-demand. Peakload demand fell by 4%.

However, socially “vulnerable” consumers suffered disproportionately, only achieving a 2% decrease in peakload demand. Hence, while monthly power prices rose by 18% for non-vulnerable consumers, they rose by 22% for vulnerable consumers. The results, data and study are in the data-file.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.

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These conditions are a legal agreement between you and Thunder Said Energy (“we” or “us”). They set out the basis on which you may make use of the Thunder Said Energy’s services, accessed through www.thundersaidenergy.com (the “site”), whether as a guest or a subscribing client.

Please read these conditions before you use the Site, as they will apply. You must not use the site if you do not agree to them.

We reserve the right to change these conditions at a later date.

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Thunder Said Energy LLC is a registered company in Connecticut, United States, effective April-2019.

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The information on the site (our “content”) is for general information purposes. It is not intended to address your particular requirements.

We have no liability for any loss or damage arising from using our content.

Our content shall not be construed as investment advice on the merits of buying, selling, subscribing to, or underwriting any shares, securities of other financial investments. You do any of the above entirely at your own risk: Thunder Said Energy shall have no liability whatsoever for any adverse consequences thereof.

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The future is uncertain. There can be no assurance that our opinions, forecasts or estimates will be realized.

You hereby acknowledge that the risk to the accuracy and completeness of our content, and any reliance upon it, is with you.

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Thunder Said Energy will not be liable for any loss of profits, business, contracts, revenue, goodwill or anticipated savings or other indirect losses

Nothing in these terms seeks to exclude or limit any liability that cannot be excluded or limited by US, UK or European law.

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Our content, including any information, imagery or materials created by us are owned by and are confidential to Thunder Said Energy and are protected by copyright.

Any citation of our content, including short passages of text is to be attributed to Thunder Said Energy, plus a link to our website www.thundersaidenergy.com. We would appreciate it if you sought our prior approval for citing our content.

Distributing, reproducing, transmitting or re-selling our content in any medium, whole or in part, is prohibited without prior permission of Thunder Said Energy. We reserve the right to prosecute against illegal copying or sharing of our content.

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Other websites and resources are linked on our site with the aim of helping our users

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Thunder Said Energy does not accept any responsibility for the content or the use of linked websites and resources; or of the content of other sites that link to ours.

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You may be provided with a username and password to access our content. You are responsible for keeping them confidential

You may not share the username and password with, or transfer them to any third party.

You must notify Thunder Said Energy immediately if you become aware of any unauthorised use of your user name and password, or any other breach of security.

If your access to our content occurs through a corporate account, your rights to access our content may cease if your employment terminates at that company, which will be at the discretion of Thunder Said Energy.

You and your company are responsible for notifying Thunder Said Energy of any termination of employment, and any unauthorised use of our content after your employment ceases.

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Thunder Said Energy does not guarantee that its site will be secure or free from bugs or viruses. You are responsible for configuring your own virus protection software.

You must not misuse the site by knowingly seeking to introduce viruses, trojans, worms, logic bombs or other material which is malicious or technologically harmful.

You must not attempt to gain unauthorised access to the Site, its server, or any computer or database connected to the Site.

In the event of breaching these conditions, Thunder Said Energy will cooperate with relevant law enforcement authorities, may disclose your identity to them, and your right to use the site will cease.

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Thunder Said Energy’s policy on data protection, privacy and cookies is set out in our privacy notice and cookie policy. You are encouraged to read both of these.

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These terms of use and their formation are governed by US, UK and European law.

Thunder Said Energy may pursue injunctive relief or similar to enforce the provisions of these terms of use in any appropriate forum.

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Any formal legal notices to Thunder Said Energy must be sent to [email protected]

Failure by Thunder Said Energy to enforce a right does not result in a waiver of such right.

If any provision in these terms of use is deemed invalid or unenforceable, the rest of these terms will remain in full force and effect.

These terms of use, privacy notice and cookie policy, constitute the entire agreement between you and Thunder Said Energy relating to your use of the Site, and supersede all other or previous agreements.

Thunder Said Energy may amend these terms at any time by posting such changes on this page of the site.

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Further information on these terms or any queries may be made by contacting Thunder Said Energy via the postal address, email address or phone numbers below.

Privacy Policy

Thunder Said Energy (“we”, “us”) respects your preferences on the collection and use of your personal information. The following statements explain our policies.

We are committed to protecting your privacy, while using our websites, products and services (our “platform”).

You should review this Privacy Policy periodically to keep up to date on our most current policies; as we reserve the right, at any time, to modify this Privacy Policy.

Any changes will be posted in this Privacy Policy. Any material changes may also be notified, e.g., via email.

1. Scope

This Policy applies to our platform. It provides you with guidance on your rights and obligations pertaining to your personal information.

2. Collection of Personal Information

Our general philosophy and ambition is to safeguard your personal data by minimising what we collect, and storing what we do collect in a secure manner.

Thunder Said Energy is the data controller for personal data we collect through our platform.

Thunder Said Energy will collect personal information that is necessary for our business: to improve the usability of our platform and help us tailor content for you.

Specifically, when you register with Thunder Said Energy, we will collect your name, email address, location, subscription preferences and preferred method of contact. We may collect additional information.

Collecting personal information will be self-apparent or will be disclosed to you at the time of collection: most often, when you enter it into an online submission form, when you request a trial or when you subscribe to our platform.

Thunder Said Energy will use this information for the purposes for which it was collected.

Thunder Said Energy does not share any personal data with any third parties, potentially with the exception of Redburn (see below).

Rob West, the principal research analyst at Thunder Said Energy, is bound by a non-compete agreement with Redburn, until December-2019, originating from Rob’s employment at Redburn, which ended in March-2019. As part of Redburn’s collaboration with Thunder Said Energy, it was agreed to release Rob from certain provisions of the non-compete. Specifically, pre-existing clients of Redburn will not be blocked from accessing Thunder Said Energy’s content. However, Redburn reserves the right to ask Thunder Said Energy for the names of firms who have accessed specific content and research products, in order to ensure compliance with this non-compete agreement.

Our platform uses several ‘plug ins’ and ‘cookies’ which are described in more detail below, including Google Analytics.

3. Purpose of Personal Information

We may use your personal information for operational, legal, administrative, and other legitimate purposes permitted by applicable laws. This may include:

Providing you with requested emails, products and services.
Providing you with information regarding our company.
Monitoring your use of our platform.
Providing customized information to you.
Confirming or invoicing purchases of our products.
For information verification purposes.
4. Access Rights and Ensuring Accuracy

We endeavour to ensure personal information is reliable, accurate, and up-to-date.

You may access your personal information, to update, and correct inaccuracies by email request (as long as your account is active).

You may limit the use and disclosure of your information by unsubscribing from marketing communications or contacting us at [email protected]

Some information may remain in our records even after you request deletion of your information, for example, if required by relevant legal authorities.

There may be limits to the amount of information we can practically provide about personal information that we store, due to cost, or others’ privacy rights.

5. Sharing Personal Information

We do not expect to work with any service providers that will handle our clients’ personal data. If we did work with any such service providers in the future, we would require them to treat personal information as confidential, and not for their own marketing purposes.

There could be instances when we disclose your personal information without providing you with a choice, in order to comply with the law or in response to a court order, government request, or other legal process; to protect the interests, rights or safety of Thunder Said Energy or others; or respond to adverse third parties in the context of litigation. But we consider this unlikely.

Should Thunder Said Energy establish future subsidiaries or affiliate companies in the future, controlled by the management of Thunder Said Energy, then we may disclose personal information “internally” to these subsidiaries or affiliate companies.

Generally, we will not transfer personal data to third parties of affiliates where Thunder Said Energy’s management team does not control it.

If Thunder Said Energy sells all or part of its business, or is involved in a merger, you agree that we may transfer your personal information as part of that transaction.

If you provide comments on Thunder Said Energy on a social media or other public platform, you should be aware that the information provided there will be broadly available to others to see, and could be used to contact you. We are not responsible for any information you choose to submit on these forums or their consequences.

6. Security of Personal Information

We take reasonable and appropriate steps to ensure the security of your personal information. Physical, administrative, and technical safeguards are in place to help protect personal information.

7. Retention of Personal Information

We will retain your personal information as needed to fulfill the purposes for which it was collected, and to comply with our business requirements.

Typically, we will retain your name and contact details for the duration of our relationship with you, as a client or prospective client of Thunder Said Energy. Any data collected for analytics purposes is retained for a shorter time, while we are carrying out the relevant analytics.

8. Cookies

A cookie is a text file, created when your browser visits a particular website. Every time you visit our website, your browser queries for and retrieves any cookies that have previously been set. Cookies should enhance the user’s website experience, including authentication, storing your preference and personalizing the website’s appearance.

The cookies Thunder Said Energy collects may include the following: a unique identifier, user preferences, and profile information used to personalize the content shown.

As far as Thunder Said Energy is aware, all cookies used on its website are industry-standard, such as those used by Google Analytics; and we have not knowingly added any specific cookies of our own.

We may collect the physical location of your device, with your consent, for purposes consistent with this Privacy Policy.

Some web browsers permit you to broadcast a preference that you not be “tracked” online. We do not actively modify your experience based upon such a signal.

We do not participate in interest based advertising.

9. Cross Border Transfer of Personal Information

Thunder Said Energy aims to minimise the the cross-border transfer of personal information. However, our company is based in the United States of America (USA). Thus, if you are not based in the USA, and you enter personal information into our website, then you agree for the information to be transferred into the USA.

By using our website, or providing any personal information to us, you consent to the transfer, processing, and storage or such information outside of your country of residence.

10. Prospective Employees and Employee Information

If you submit an application for employment to Thunder Said Energy, we may collect and store any relevant information you disclose to us in your application.

Information on employees or prospective employees (“Employee Information”) will be used for legitimate business purposes, to evaluate applications, manage the employee-employer relationship and comply with applicable laws and regulations.

We may disclose your Employee Information if required or permitted to do so by law (such as when part of a governmental agency action or litigation), governmental or quasi-governmental requests, or a regulatory organization, or to relevant third parties such as site technicians, auditors, lawyers, or professional advisors.

We will not intentionally communicate or make available to the general public in any manner, employees’ sensitive details, such as social security numbers.

We may share Employee Information with third parties who provide outsourced human resource functions. Those third parties will be required to protect Employee Information.

11. EU General Data Protection Regulation

The Thunder Said Energy Policy for the Processing of Data Governed by GDPR addresses our commitment to the processing of personal data under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679.

If you are located in the European Economic Area (“EEA”) or Switzerland, you have the rights to request the following:

To request confirmation of whether we process personal data relating to you
To request confirmation of what personal data we process relating to you
To request that we rectify or update any personal data relating to you that is inaccurate, incomplete or outdated.
To request that we erase your personal data ,or that we no longer have your consent to process your personal data
To request that we restrict the use of your personal data
You may contact us at [email protected] to exercise any of these rights described above. You also have the right to lodge a complaint with your country’s data protection supervisory authority.

12. Other Contractual Relationships

If you enter into a separate contractual relationship us, which requires collecting, using, or sharing information about you in a different manner than described in this Privacy Policy, the terms of that agreement will apply.

13. Other Websites

This Privacy Policy does not apply to sites or services offered by other companies or third parties, that may be displayed as content or linked on our website.

14. Contact Information

If you have any questions or concerns related to this Privacy Policy, please contact the us at [email protected]

Updated 2nd April, 2019.

Thunder Said Energy Policy for the Processing of Data Governed by GDPR

Thunder Said Energy may collect, process or handle Personal Data relating to its customers or prospective customers (“customers”) in the European Economic Area (“Personal Data”).

Thunder Said Energy’s relationship with its customers is governed by our terms of use (above), privacy policy (above), and potentially other commercial agreements. It is also legally bound under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 (“GDPR”) in its collection, uses, and processes around Personal Data.

This Policy describes Thunder Said Energy’s commitment to the processing of Personal Data under the GDPR.

Please contact [email protected] if you would like an executed version of this Policy, or for answers to any GDPR queries arising from thie policy.

1. Appropriate Technical and Organizational Measures. When Thunder Said Energy processes Personal Data on behalf of a customer, appropriate technical and organizational measures satisfy the requirements of GDPR, to ensure the security of Personal Data is appropriate to the level of risk, and to help ensure protection of the rights of the data subject.

2. Subprocessing. Thunder Said Energy does not currently work with any subprocessors. If we were to do so in the future, subprocessors would be required to provide at least the same level of protection as is described in this Policy. Thunder Said Energy would remain liable to its customers for any actions by its subprocessors that impact any rights guaranteed under the GDPR.

3. Written Instructions. Thunder Said Energy only processes Personal Data in accordance with the terms set out in this Policy, its Privacy Policy (above) and other written terms agreed with its subscribing customer. These documents set out the subject-matter, duration, nature, purpose, types of Personal Data, categories, obligations and rights relating to such Personal Data.

4. Transfers to non-EEA Countries. Most of the Personal Data collected by Thunder Said Energy will be collected via its US-website. Where Personal Data are disclosd Thunder Said employees in the EEA, they may be transferred to Thunder Said Energy’s office in Connecticut, United States. Every effort will be made to ensure the transfer is fully secure. Personal data is not expected to be transmitted to other destinations, beyond the United States and EEA.

5. Confidentiality. Thunder Said Energy requires that its employees process Personal Data under appropriate obligations of confidentiality.

6. Cooperation Concerning Data Subjects. Thunder Said Energy cooperates with reasonable requests of its customers (at the customer’s reasonable expense) to help them fulfill their obligations under GDPR to respond to requests by data subjects to access, modify, rectify, or remove their Personal Data.

7. Cooperation Concerning Customer Documentation. Thunder Said Energy cooperates with the reasonable requests of its customers to provide information necessary to demonstrate compliance with this Policy and the GDPR, or to conduct audits of the Personal Data it holds that was received from the customer. Audits may only occur once per calendar year, and during normal business hours. Audits will only occur after reasonable notice (not less than 30 business days). Audits will be conducted by customer or an appropriate independent auditor appointed (not by a competitor). Audits may not have any adverse impact on Thunder Said Energy’s normal business operations. Auditors shall not have access to any proprietary or third party information or data. Any records, data or information accessed by the Company and/or its representatives in the performance of any such audit will be deemed to be the confidential information of Thunder Said Energy, as applicable, and may be used for no other reason than to assess compliance with the terms of this Policy. Thunder Said Energy shall be entitled to charge the Customer USD500 per hour for any hours of its employees’ time that is taken up in the audit.

8. Personal Data Breach. In the event of a Personal Data breach under GDPR, Thunder Said Energy will notify its applicable customers without undue delay after becoming aware of the breach. Such notification(s) may be delivered to an email address provided by Customer or by direct communication (for example, by phone call or in-person). The customer is responsible for ensuring any email address provided by them is current and valid. Thunder Said Energy will take reasonable steps to provide information reasonably required.

9. Deletion of Data. Thunder Said Energy will delete or return all Personal Data to a customer, following the termination of the customer’s relationship, unless it is required to retain it by applicable laws and compliance policies. Thunder Said Energy reserves the right to charge a reasonable fee to comply with any customer’s request to return Personal Data.

10. Governing Law. This Policy shall be governed by the governing law (and subject to the jurisdiction(s)) of the relevant Agreement and otherwise subject to the limitations and remedies expressly set out in the Agreement.
If you have any queries about this Policy please contact [email protected]
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