Fully subsea offshore projects: the economics?

This model presents the economic impacts of developing a typical, 625Mboe offshore  gas condensate field using a fully subsea solution, compared against installing a new production facility.

Both projects are modelled out fully, to illstrate production profiles, per-barrel economics, capex metrics, NPVs, IRRs and sensitivity to oil and gas prices (e.g. breakevens).

The result of a fully offshore project is lower capex, lower opex, faster development and higher uptime, generating a c4% uplift in IRRs, a 50% uplift in NPV6 (below) and a 33% reduction in the project’s gas-breakeven price.

Please download the model to interrogate the numbers and input assumptions.

Guyana: Economic Model

This download is a full economic model for the development of Exxon, Hess and CNOOC-Nexen’s Stabroek block in Guyana.

The output is our base case expectation for the block’s ultimate value, resources, production volumes, cash flows, capex and per-barrel economics.

Sensitivities can modeled as a function of oil prices, WACCs, resource volumes and other costs.

Exploration results to-date are also tabulated in the ‘E&A’ tab, underpinning our resource estimates.

After the COVID crisis, our NAV estimate has  arguably increased by c9%, despite oil crashing in 2020 and a 1-year delay to FPSOs 4&5.

Plastic pyrolysis delivers strong economics?

>30% IRRs should be attainable converting waste-plastic back into oil, based on disclosures from technology-leaders in the sector. This economic model allows for stress-testing of product prices, input costs, gate fees, capex, opex, utilisation and fiscal regimes.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.