Ground source heat pumps: the economics?

costs of a ground source heat pump

This data-file models the economics, costs, energy savings and potential CO2 savings of a ground source heat pump (GHP), compared to traditional home heating and cooling options.

A GHP approximately doubles the efficiency of conventional heating and cooling, through heat-exchange with the shallow earth, 30ft below the surface, which tends to remain at 10-15°C temperatures year-round.

The model can be stress-tested, flexing annual heating/cooling demands, coefficients of performance, as well as oil, gas, power and CO2 prices. Also included are a granular cost build-up for CHPs and our notes.

Leading Companies Commercialising Heat Pumps?

leading heat pump companies

Heat pumps can halve the CO2 intensity of residential heating while also lowering costs by c10-35% in some cases. This all creates an exciting opportunity for heat pumps in the energy transition. Hence this data-file tracks leading heat pump companies.

The space is competitive, with 20 companies vying for market share. But a key question mark is reliability. So we think companies with good track records may be accumulating a moat, and may be particularly interesting.

Hence our screen focuses in upon the technology leaders with the most concentrated exposure to heat pumps. We have profiled 7 leading public companies and 4 private companies, including two venture stage firms developing particularly exciting concepts.

Concentration versus diversification. Five of the top six companies by market share are diversified electronic giants (Emerson, Honeywell, LG, etc). Pure play heat pump companies are also discussed in the data-file.

The work is informed by tracking 70,000 patents since 2000, focusing in upon 4,000 Western-centric patents from 2017-19, and also considering customer reviews.

Note this screen is mostly focused on air/air heat pumps, aka ‘air conditioners’. For a more detailed review of air/water and ground-source heat pump providers, see this data-file.

Leading heat pump companies were also described in more detail in this research article sent out to our distribution list.

Financial and CO2 Costs of Heaters, Boilers and Heat Pumps

CO2 Costs of Heating and Heat Pumps

This data-file models the costs and CO2 intensities of four different heating solutions: oil-fired furnaces, gas boilers, electric heaters and electrically-powered heat pumps.

Gas-fired boilers are most justified in gaining future market share, based on our cost data, even after paying $50/ton for CO2 offsets, to decarbonize the gas. Heat pumps are most efficient.

To compare and contrast the different solutions, you can vary oil prices, gas prices and power prices in the data-file.

Costs and efficiencies of the boilers and heat pumps are based on the specifications of products available online in 2020, which are also tabulated in the data-file.

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