Explaining US gasoline?

This data-file breaks down US gasoline demand, as a function of vehicle miles traveled (urban and rural), GDP growth, gasoline prices and fuel economy across the US vehicle fleet. It contains monthly data on each variable, going back to 2002, so correlations can be explored.

Gasoline demand is modestly slower-than-expected in 2019, rising just +1.0% YoY, which is above the prior 15-year trend for 0.4% pa growth, but below the 1.8% expected basesd on regressions to fuel prices and GDP.

One cause is urban vehicle miles driven, where growth has slowed, defying historical correlations with GDP (strong) and gasoline prices (reasonable). Structural explanations could include the rapid rise of alternative vehicles (e.g., e-scooters), ride-sharing and policy decisions.  

Please download the file to view the data or test your own regressions.

Energy Economics of e-Scooters

This data-file contains all our data on the energy economics of e-scooters, a transformational technology for urban mobility, where demand has exploded in 2018 and 2019. And for good reason. The data-file includes:

  • Our projections of the oil demand destroyed by scooters
  • Our projections of the electricity demand created by scooters
  • Number of US travel-trips using shared bikes and scooters from 2010-18
  • Scooter costs versus car and taxi costs per mile
  • Average ranges and battery sizes of incumbent scooter models
  • Relative energy economics of scooters versus gasoline cars and EVs
  • Relative time taken to charge scooters versus EVs using solar panels
  • The proportion of scooter trips that replace gasoline car trips in eight cities
  • Profiles of the top 4 e-scooter companies
  • A timeline of shared mobility from 1965 to 2018.

The download will also enable you to adjust the input assumptions, to test different scenarios.

Vehicles: fuel economy and energy efficiency?

Energy efficiency (%) and fuel economy (passenger mpg) of different vehicle types

Vehicle fuel economy and energy efficiency are quantified in this data-file, looking across different transportation types: cars, trucks, buses, hybrids, electric vehicles (EVs), hydrogen cars, planes, trains, helicopters, plus other smaller vehicles such as bicycles, scooters, motor-cycles and simply ‘walking’.

Our numbers are built up for each category, in kWh-per-mile, miles-per-gallon, energy efficiency percentages and ultimate CO2 intensity per mile of travel. In turn, these numbers are built up from physics calculations, enthalpy calculations and technical disclosures of underlying companies.

A good rule of thumb is that a passenger car achieves 20-40mpg and 15-20% efficiency, depending on its size; a bus or truck achieves 5-10 vehicle miles per gallon, but this is equivalent to up 50-250 passenger-equivalent miles per gallon, because of a higher load factor; and likewise a plane might achieve 0.2-0.5 vehicle miles per gallon, translating into 50-70 passenger miles per gallon, when you think of a plane as just a flying bus.

Electrification generally offers a c4x gain in vehicle fuel economy and energy efficiency, especially for ground-level vehicles, increasing efficiency from c15-20% on conventional oil-powered vehicles to c60-80% on electric vehicles. Hybrids and hydrogen also yield modest efficiency improvements.

Smaller vehicles are surprisingly exciting. This is just physics, but a bicycle achieves an effective fuel economy of 1,000 miles per gallon-equivalent, which is about 8x better than an electric vehicle, and even 3x better than walking (note here). Moreover, an emerging class of electric transportation technologies is fast, convenient and yet achieve 4-120x efficiency gains per passenger mile (note here).

Further data dis-aggregating the CO2 intensity per mile of electric vehicles versus ICE cars, depending on how they are powered, is linked here.

Copyright: Thunder Said Energy, 2022.